Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: Overcapitalized renewables will likely destroy multiples of shale capital losses
“I see renewables as just a massively overcapitalized space. It will likely torch capital on multiples of what happened to shale.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Miller: 100% battery backup for Germany's grid would cost $270T
“And the back of the envelope math says, well, in order for Germany to be a hundred percent renewables plus a hundred percent battery, the battery piece of that equation was 270 trillion dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Miller: Coal-to-gas shift delivers 2.5x the environmental benefit of gas-to-renewables
“And when you look at the delta between, if I move from a coal plant to a natural gas plant, and a natural gas plant to a renewables plant, That first step has 2.5 times the environmental impact.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: U.S. Shale Will Deplete, Forcing Reliance on Unstable Oil Regimes
“One is I think oil's off to the races. And I do say this to CIOs with a, Hey, think with your inflation hat on this thing is the input to almost every product and humanity. And the reason why is largely the world has lulled itself into a soft slumber on the ba…”
Assertion Contradicted
Miller: 80% of Republicans Under 35 Prioritize Climate as Top-Five Policy Issue
“Currently, Republicans under the age of 35, 80% of them say climate should be in our top five list of policy issues.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: Carbon Will Rival Oil and Gas in Commodity Scope and Scale
“Carbon will be a commodity that rivals oil and gas in scope and scale, and you need to be ready for that.”
Insight
Miller: Point-source CCS yields PE returns only in pure-CO2 industries
“Really where you want to focus in carbon capture are in industries that emit pure CO₂ as an industrial byproduct. Industrial accident is a better way to think about it. So those are really ethanol plants, ammonia, so fertilizer, and then natural gas processing…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2034
Miller: Carbon capture will reach coal and gas plants within a decade
“We are gonna get to coal plants and natural gas plants, a hundred percent certain in the next decade.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Miller: SEC emissions reporting rules will eventually lead to carbon taxes
“When the government's asking you to measure something, I got news for you. That thing's going to be taxed. That thing is going to be taxed at some point in time, which is a whole different revenue source for the energy transition over time.”
Insight
Miller: Complex financial engineering in deals leads to participant misalignment
“I don't like complicated financial engineering. I don't like inserting puts and calls and preferred equity and ring fencing debt securities because maybe I'm too dumb to understand it, but I think that it just ends up with misalignment and transactions where e…”
Insight
Miller: The global shift is an emissions transition, not energy transition
“It's not really an energy transition. It's an emissions transition. The emissions is what we're trying to get at.”
Assertion Supported
Miller: Western Oklahoma wholesale power prices are negative 20% of the time
“Power prices in western Oklahoma are -20% of the time today. They will pay you to take the power.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Miller: Good carbon capture projects yield 20–30% unlevered IRR and 3–6x returns
“A good project in carbon capture might be an unlevered 20 to 30% rate of return might be somewhere around three to six times your money. These are competitive with traditional private equity economics.”
Opinion
Miller: Renewables Disrupt Grid Reliability and Cause Intraday Price Volatility
“We think there's too much capital chasing renewables, and renewables are actually disrupting our grid system. They're causing intraday price volatility. They're causing electricity to be less reliable.”
Opinion
Miller: Too much energy transition capital is concentrated in mega-funds
“I'd argue vehemently there's too much money in the energy transition. It's just concentrated in the hands of very large funds who can't get out of bed without writing a billion dollar equity check.”
Opinion
Miller: Electric vehicles are not suitable for the average US consumer
“I think one that I'm bearish on is electric vehicles. There's several things about EVs that are, when you dive in, they're just not a good fit for your average customer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: Hybridization of everything will be the US vehicle solution
“I actually think the solution set for the U.S. Is going to be hybridization of everything.”
Assertion Contradicted
Miller: 99.9% of global lithium reserves are in four countries
“99.9% of the world's lithium reserves are in the hands of just four countries, China, Chile, Argentina, Australia, none of which are the United States.”
Assertion Supported
Miller: US CO2 reductions since 2005 stem largely from fracking
“The United States has reduced its CO two emissions since 2005, largely on the back of fracking and getting that natural gas molecule out.”
Disclosure
Miller: Grey Rock pitches financial returns, not climate, to traditional operators
“And what we try to do is merge these worlds together, is just to say, hey, when we're in those conference rooms, realistically, we're not bringing up climate. We just aren't. We're bringing up money. And when we're in other conference rooms, we talk about how …”
Insight
Miller: Energy investing is like pharma; tourists get their faces ripped off
“The energy is like pharma. If you're a tourist, you're probably going to get your face ripped off. And if you don't know a component piece of the energy ecosystem, or maybe the second and third layer of the onion, you can really miss something really bad.”
Insight
Miller: Overcapitalized energy markets will lose money despite overall growth
“Anytime something's overcapitalized, you're likely to lose your shirt. Just because a market is growing doesn't mean you're making money. That's a really hard thing for people to grasp in energy.”
Insight
Miller: Energy investors lose money by ignoring full-cycle acquisition costs
“There's this concept of half cycle. How much does it cost to just do a project? And then there's the full cycle. What do I have to pay to get access to that project? And that's where a lot of people lose in energy.”
Assertion Supported
Miller: Endowment ESG pressure stopped new resource commitments, not existing holdings
“The ESG pressures at your typical endowment foundation, the vast majority didn't take the form of you have to divest all of your natural resources. It typically took the form of you're not allowed to invest again in natural resources.”
