Insight
Dawn: NAV loans used for LP distributions are unpopular and overpriced
“NAV loans that are raised against a portfolio to send capital back to LPs, very unpopular. Very high priced. Many LPs don't like them. They can raise capital cheaper themselves. So those are not popular.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Dawn predicts secondary market volume will hit $400B-$500B within five years
“So it would not surprise me if the GP side of this market is 200 to two hundred and fifty billion dollars in five years time. So if you add that onto what we think is a natural growth also, In the LP market, getting to four to five hundred billion is reasonabl…”
Prediction Held up
Dawn: PE secondary market volume in 2024 will top $130 billion record
“2021, which is a high watermark up to this point is about one 30. And I suspect we will beat that number this year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dawn: Single-asset continuation fund syndication market will grow rapidly by 2029
“Plus, I think when the new entrants I've just identified, the types of group that start their secondary funds just focused on single asset continuation funds, then we anticipate the syndicate market for these transactions will grow rapidly, because you'll have…”
Insight
Dawn: Early LP secondary sale requests felt like asking for a divorce
“Most LPs were very concerned about asking the GP for the right to sell, because every transaction, you require the consent of the GP. And often then, less so now, that was in the GP's sole discretion. In some ways, it was considered similar to asking a spouse …”
Insight
Dawn: Capital-free secondary advisory units struggle inside large banks
“Also, I think that these are pure advisory businesses that require no capital. And the challenging to run in big integrated banks that do require a lot of capital.”
Insight
Dawn: GP-led continuation funds now retain trophy assets, not liquidate zombies
“These are the best GPs with their best assets, leveraging the secondary market for a number of reasons. Often it's a single company continuation. This is often their crown jewel, trophy asset, where in the past, a managing partner may have to sell their best a…”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Private equity distributions to AUM are near historic lows
“In this environment where distributions have almost been at historic lows compared to assets under management”
Assertion Supported
Buyout secondaries trade in the nineties while venture trades at 60-80 cents
“Good quality buyouts, probably in the nineties. Venture and growth, very much name specific. So some managers still very difficult to access. So you pay an access premium, but probably more like 60 to 80 cents on the dollar because there's a little bit of skep…”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Single-company GP-led secondaries usually transact around NAV
“Generally on the GP side, That on a single company, it usually transacts around the GP's NAV. Typically not at a discount, but if it is, it's at a modest discount.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Traditional buyout managers are launching single-asset continuation secondary funds
“What we're seeing right now, I would say a fairly new development is traditional buyout managers actually looking to set up their own secondary funds, just focused on investing in single asset continuation funds.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dawn doubts private credit secondaries will match private equity secondary size
“So will it be as big as a private equity market? I doubt it”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Private credit secondaries are currently trading in the nineties
“In the current market, private credit is probably trading in the nineties.”
Insight
Secondary markets quickly reject continuation funds attempted after failed sell-side processes
“The transactions that are less favorable to the market is where there's been a failed sell side on that company. And then, oh, that sell side failed. Why don't we do a continuation fund? Now, the market figures that out pretty quickly.”
Insight
Dawn: NAV loans to support portfolio companies are acceptable to LPs
“Nav loans raised to support portfolio companies are often much more acceptable to LPs, particularly in a situation where the fund has no more unfunded capital, but the GP needs to grow their portfolio or they need to defend their portfolio.”
Insight
Dawn: GP-sponsored tender offers generate better secondary pricing for LPs
“The new investors typically make a commitment to the new vintage funds, and the GP is deeply involved in the diligence on the existing portfolio, which typically generates a better price for the LPs. Those transactions tend to be a win-win.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Most private equity GPs exit portfolios at a 25% NAV premium
“Most GPs exit their portfolios around 25% premium to their NAV.”
Insight
Dawn: Secondary sellers must include quality assets to pass buyer ICs
“You've got to be willing to put some good assets in a portfolio, as well as the ones you want to get rid of, because you have to remember on the other side, the secondary investor is going to go to their IC. They're going to present the transaction. You need s…”
Insight
Dawn: Secondary deals that work at 86 cents work at 88 cents
“And my experience over time is that in terms of pricing, if a deal is good at 86 cents on the dollar, it's usually good at 88 too. I've seen buyers walk away for a point. I'm pretty confident wouldn't have made a difference.”
Prediction Held up
Dawn: 10 to 20 GP-focused secondary funds will launch in next two years
“It wouldn't be surprised in the next couple of years, there's 10 to 20 new secondary funds focused on the GP side.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dawn: '40 Act funds comprise ~10% of current secondary market buyers
“What we're finding is maybe 10% of our buyers right now, maybe slightly more, but what we are seeing is that when both GP and LP side, when buyers are presenting their offers, often one of the buying vehicles will be their 40 Act fund”
Assertion Contradicted
Dawn: Cogent Partners was the only PE secondary market advisor in 2001
“So when I first found out there's only one advisor and they were a startup in Dallas called Cogent Partners.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: 40% to 50% of Early Secondaries Flow Came From Banks
“Also, maybe 40 to 50% of the flow in the market was actually bank selling similar to UBS.”
Insight
LPs sell older funds specifically because they stop generating co-investment opportunities
“So I will sell my old funds to reinvest in the new funds so I can generate co-investment business. And old funds don't generate co-investment business. Many LPs these days have very active co-investment program, so they would do it for that reason.”
