What-if
Gave: Europe's Energy Policy May Have Emboldened Russia's Invasion
“I think if Europe hadn't followed such a boneheaded energy policy, perhaps Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: US supply disruptions from tariffs will be as bad as COVID-19
“We saw this kind of discrepancy during COVID, and it took the economies a year to get back on their footing. This time, it's going to be just as bad. I don't see how the economy doesn't grind to a standstill. These strict discrepancies are going to be very uni…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: US-China negotiations will result in China leaving the Americas and US leaving Asia
“This, I think, will end up being the negotiations with China. China, you get out of the Americas, and we'll get out of Asia. That is a trade that Xi Jinping will be very happy to make.”
Opinion
Gave: China does not need a currency devaluation
“China doesn't need a devaluation. China's problem is first and foremost that consumer and business confidence has been crushed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Chinese competition will eliminate profitability across the AI sector
“We also know that when China enters the room, profits walk out, so there's not going to be any profit in AI forever.”
Opinion
Gave: US workforce obesity and opioid use severely constrain manufacturing reshoring
“The whole lockdown thing made a couple of problems that are inherent to the US and to the US labor force worse, most notably obesity, which prevents a lot of people from holding the type of manufacturing jobs where you have to be sitting up and doing a lot of …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: As Energy Prices Rise, Europe Will Go Bust
“As the energy price goes up, Europe will go bust.
The only question is at what price?”
Prediction Held up
Gave: Non-US growth will outperform US growth as the dollar weakens
“I think we're living through the end of the year of US exceptionalism. After a 15 year standing run, the US dollar is now rolled over. I think most people's portfolio is on position for a world of weaker dollar, and one where growth outside of the US is going …”
Assertion Partly supported
Gave: China and Europe expand fiscal stimulus as US consolidates
“Now the U.S. Is doing fiscal consolidation just as China and Europe step on the fiscal accelerator.”
Opinion
Gave: Investors should aggressively buy undervalued Latin American assets
“That leaves me, actually, super bullish to Latin America. It was very interesting that in these tariffs, Latin America was completely spared. Not only did they get a blanket 10%, but pretty much everything they export, whether copper, silver, lithium, et ceter…”
Opinion
Gave: Chinese distressed debt at 10 cents on the dollar offers amazing risk-reward
“The one that stands out the most to me is Chinese distressed debt. Chinese distressed debt was trading at 50, 60 cents on the dollar. When Russia invaded Ukraine, everybody decided China's uninvestable. Everybody redeemed. There was no markets. This stuff is s…”
Opinion
Gave: Devaluing the renminbi within six months would be a big mistake
“James, I think here we're at a super interesting crossroad where if in the next six months China does devalue the renminbi, it would have been a big policy mistake.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gave: Private Equity and Credit Report 50% Gains Amid Flat Broader Markets
“Over that same three-year period, against loans and equity markets that are flat to down, the private equity and the private credit managers are nominally up 50%.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Pension Funds and Endowments Will Relentlessly Rebalance Away From Privates
“They've outperformed so much that the rebalancing that you're going to see in every pension fund, in every endowment, away from these strategies back towards listed equities or back towards, frankly, just bonds, it should be relentless.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2035
Gave: Emerging Markets and Listed Equities Are the 10-Year Trade as Capital Flows In
“Today, if you're a young aspiring money manager, you should be launching an equity fund, you should be launching an EM fund, and even if you're doing it with very little money, that's the trade for the next 10 years. That's where the capital is going to go, be…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Foreign Appetite for US Corporate Debt Rollovers Will Be Limited
“The second half of this year and the first half of next year, the rollovers are gargantuan. At its time, when the appetite of foreigners for US dollar assets It's going to be very, very limited. Selling bonds in a weakening currency is very hard. Spreads are a…”
Opinion
Gave: Structured Products in Private Banks Create Catastrophic Hidden Downside Leverage
“My fear is that over the past 10 years, private banks all around the world, private banks in Europe, in Asia, in America, Have made a lot of money selling structured products to private clients that essentially the clients where it's selling vault. They sold p…”
Assertion Supported
Gave: 2022 diversified portfolio losses are larger than in 2008
“So actually the total capital losses this time around are bigger than they were in 2008. Cause in 2008, if you had a diversified portfolio, you took your licks on your equities, but your bonds came through.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Energy sector has substantial room to grow due to institutional under-allocation
“And then the other thing, of course, is the outperformance of energy. When I talk to people about it, they're like, oh yeah, I can't do anything about that. Can't invest. Which tells me great news. It's got lots of room to grow.”
Insight
Gave: Energy and emerging market bonds are the new anti-fragile portfolio assets
“The new two anti-fragile assets are one energy and the other is emerging market bonds.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gave: First Fed tightening cycle where EM bonds outperform US Treasuries
“This is the first Fed tightening cycle in my lifetime where emerging market bonds are crushing U.S. Treasuries, German bonds, JGBs.”
Prediction Partly held up
Gave: Asian currencies and EM bonds will revalue against Western debt
“I think the next coming years, we're now entering a cycle of revaluation of Asian currencies, revaluation of emerging market bonds relative to those of the Western world. I think it started, and I think very few people are positioned for it.”
Opinion
Gave: Selling China to US or European institutions today is impossible
“Trying to sell China to US institution or even a European institution today, forget it. It's not going to happen. You're wasting your time.”
Opinion
Gave: Current Latin American leftists will not repeat Chávez's mistakes
“Today's leftists in America are not the leftists from a generation ago. Again, you learn from your father's mistakes. In Latin America, you talk to guys in Chile and in Colombia and in Mexico, they've learned from Chavez. They've learned from Argentina. They d…”
