The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

3open predictions

0due for another look

1closed calls →

1336days to next prediction date

Everyone Marko Papic (5)Eric Mogelof (5)Josh Wolfe (4)Larry Siegel (3)Ben Forman (3)Yann Robard (2)Tom Steyer (2)Ted Seides (2)Regan Bozman (2)Rajiv Jain (2)Matt Miller (2)Matt Brown (2)

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today 2026202720282029 JunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 3 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (3)

1336 days left 2030-05-11

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030

Siegel: Long-term investors should tilt toward value over growth over 10-20 years

“If you're a long-term investor, you should probably tilt your portfolio toward value, not growth at this point. You may lose for a while, but in 10 or 20 years, you'll be very happy.”

Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 21:14 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)

4989 days left 2040-05-11

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2040

Siegel: Global economic growth will match or exceed historical 3.5% rate

“Meanwhile, global growth should proceed around three and a half. Which is the historical rate. I think it'll be better, actually, because we have been in a slow period for the United States.”

Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 43:40 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)

26772 days left 2099-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2099

Siegel: Global Population Will Peak Late This Century and Then Decline

“The population is going to continue to grow slowly and peak late in this century and then begin to decline.”

Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 50:40 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)

Closed calls (1) the full record →

Prediction Held up

Siegel accurately predicts COVID-19 will become an ongoing managed condition

“We'll get this under control, it'll be a new virus that we deal with on a, an ongoing basis, like the flu, or SARS, or MERS, or AIDS, or polio. There will be a vaccine, there may be a cure, and we'll move on to the next crisis.”

Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 43:21 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)

The Calls

Next up (3)

Closed calls (1) the full record →

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