Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trillions in under-allocated wealth capital is seeking private markets
“That's really the big pony here, is there's trillions of dollars in Wealth Channel Capital that is looking to flow into private markets because they're under allocated.”
Assertion Supported
Most UHNW investors cannot name three alternative asset providers
“I'll call out a Bain survey from twenty-twenty-two. Bain and company asked 418 ultra high net worth individuals. Name three firms that come to mind when you think of alternative assets and who are the providers. First answer, the biggest answer in the bubble c…”
Insight
Private markets tech is mirroring equities and fixed income evolution
“Pre-private markets infrastructure becoming the next market structure evolution, in my view, after equities fixed income derivatives, but very informative in terms of how I think about the technology evolution that's happening in private markets from pre to po…”
Insight
Institutional and private wealth channels are converging in private markets
“The institutional world, which you've covered tremendously well with capital allocators. And the wealth worlds are kind of converging. Institutions are trying to think about how they think about private markets. The wealth channel is now starting to think abou…”
Insight
Asset manager consolidation forces firms to be mega-scale or niche
“If this space is going to go through consolidation because firms need to figure out who they want to be, they either need to be really big or really niche. What happens to the middle? What happens to that ten billion dollar manager, thirty billion dollar manag…”
Assertion Supported
Top six alt managers raised average $12B from wealth in 2024
“The top six firms account for the majority of market share of capital raised in private markets. On average, the top six firms, 20, 24, they raised twelve billion dollars. The top seven through 25 firms only raised 1.7 billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Wealth channel allocates only 1% to 3% of $145T to private markets
“I'd say roughly about, on average, one to three percent of the 145 trillion of assets that Bain talks about is actually allocated to private markets within the wealth channel.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
High-quality niche managers will raise private wealth capital
“So I think there's room for really high quality, smaller, more niche managers. They're really good at something. They will be able to raise capital from the wealth channel.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
Wirehouses will drive largest wealth flows into private markets
“The wires, I still think will be the largest source of flows from the wealth channel into private markets.”
Insight
Mega-GPs will benefit most from wirehouse wealth distribution
“What it means is the biggest GPs Are probably best placed to cover the wires because they have the resources to actually cover all the different advisors, serve them, whether it's doing large events with them, whether it's going and meeting that advisor in the…”
Prediction Held up
Robinhood, Revolut, and SoFi will offer private market products
“And even I think we'll get to the Robin Hoods, the Revoluts, the SoFi's, which has embedded some private markets products to the wealth channel within their complex as well.”
Insight
Private banks must offer proprietary deals as private market access commoditizes
“Those types of things I think are what private banks are trying to do to differentiate themselves because now the wealth management space is getting increasingly competitive and crowded when it comes to accessing private markets.”
Assertion Supported
Hedge funds are expanding into private credit and longer-lock vehicles
“You are starting to see some hedge funds think about private credit, and you are starting to see some hedge funds think about longer lock vehicles. So they're kind of getting into certain aspects of private markets that a larger multi-strategy alternative asse…”
Assertion Supported
Drawdown PE requires high-teens returns to match evergreen MOIC
“If you're in a drawdown fund, you have to generate high teens returns to get the same multiple uninvested capital over a ten-year period as you would if you're getting low teens IRRs in an evergreen structure.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Insurance companies will become much larger private market allocators
“Insurance companies are going to be much bigger allocators. Lincoln recently partnered with Bain and Partners Group, these really strategic partnerships. They have hundreds of billions of dollars in the general account to invest into private markets and So the…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Content will be core to private fund capital raising
“I think for this space to continue to mature and grow, content is going to be critical and content's going to be at the core of how firms think about capital raising.”
Assertion Supported
Blackstone sources roughly $250B of its $1T AUM from wealth channel
“Blackstone, about 40 years old, started with 300,000 dollars of capital under management. They're now over a trillion dollars of assets. About a fourth of that, two hundred fifty billion or so, comes from the wealth channel today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wealth managers are acquiring OCIOs for institutional diligence capabilities
“Wealth management as both a business and the way it's investing in private markets is institutionalizing itself. Those firms are acquiring OCIOs to Add capabilities that give them institutional quality diligence and processes to invest in private markets.”
Assertion Partly supported
Blackstone, Blue Owl, KKR, and Apollo have hundreds serving wealth
“Blackstone has a team of hundreds of people. Blue Owl, hundreds of people, KKR, Apollo, hundreds of people to serve the Wealth Channel.”
Assertion Supported
Independent RIA channel is growing assets faster than wirehouses
“We're starting to see the independent channel, which is the fastest growing part of the wealth management space. It's growing faster in terms of assets than the wire houses.”
Assertion Supported
PE holds $5-6T and private credit has reached $1.7T
“If you think about the different strategies within private markets, private equity, which has the largest pool of capital within the 15 trillion dollars or so of private markets assets, so it's about five or six trillion dollars of assets. Private credit is gr…”
Assertion Supported
Private credit secondaries market has grown 17x to $30B
“You have private credit secondaries, which has grown, I think, 17 times. Still a small market is like thirty billion of assets, but growing because private credit is now growing.”
Assertion Supported
Evergreen funds charge lower fees and carry on NAV
“Evergreen structures are generally lower fee, one 25, one 50, maybe one 75 in certain cases, lower carry, but the management fee and carry is charged on net asset value.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Only roughly 200 evergreen funds existed in the US in late 2024
“Goldman had a report on evergreens in the fall of twenty-twenty-four, and there's really only in the U.S. At the time, there's like 200 evergreen funds. So there's not a lot of choices relative to the thousands of closed-end funds that people can invest in.”