Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 92% certainty 5/5 debate potential 1/5

Majewski: Eagle Point will see a down 10%+ month in five years

Tom Majewski · Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284) · Dec 1, 2022 · at 1:02:06

Tom Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit Management, discusses the expected mark-to-market volatility of CLO investing with prospective investors.

0:00 / 0:11exact quote · 11.9s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“In the next five years, we're going to have a down 10% plus month. I don't know when. I don't know why. I know it's going to happen, and if that's not something you're comfortable with, this is probably not the right investment for you.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Tom Majewski

Opinion
Majewski: Prepayment rates matter far more than default rates in CLOs
“CLO people really talk about default rates. How many loans are going to default? The prepayment rate, in my opinion, is far more important.”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 13:47 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Opinion
Majewski: CLO Equity Returns Depend on Manager Quality, Not Portfolio Quality
“There's no correlation, in my opinion, to the returns to the equity based on the quality of the portfolio. It's all about the quality of the collateral manager.”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 37:28 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Insight
Majewski: In secondary CLO markets, there are no bad bonds, just bad prices
“When you're buying used with limited exception, there's no bad bonds, just bad prices now. And if someone's a little less good at managing a CLO, we'll just back up our bid five points and maybe that offsets it.”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 48:19 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Insight
Majewski: Higher default and lower reinvestment price scenarios produce best CLO returns
“Oddly, the higher default, lower reinvestment price scenarios are typically the best, but that goes back to my data about 2006 and seven being the best vintages.”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 51:14 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tom Majewski: 2006 and 2007 CLOs far outperformed their pitch-book base cases
“And what turned out to be the 2006 and 2007 CLOs, the vintage medians from those periods far outperformed the base case in the pitch books. Not because they had good loans. They probably had some bad loans, but they had the ability to keep reinvesting with loc…”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 14:23 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Assertion Supported
Majewski: CLO AAA and AA securities have zero historical impairments
“There's never been an impairment in the history of the CLO market on a AAA or AA security issued.”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 23:22 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 700 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.