Tom Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit Management, discusses the expected mark-to-market volatility of CLO investing with prospective investors.
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“In the next five years, we're going to have a down 10% plus month. I don't know when. I don't know why. I know it's going to happen, and if that's not something you're comfortable with, this is probably not the right investment for you.”
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More from Tom Majewski
Opinion
Majewski: Prepayment rates matter far more than default rates in CLOs
“CLO people really talk about default rates. How many loans are going to default? The prepayment rate, in my opinion, is far more important.”
Tom MajewskiDec 1, 2022▶ 13:47Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Opinion
Majewski: CLO Equity Returns Depend on Manager Quality, Not Portfolio Quality
“There's no correlation, in my opinion, to the returns to the equity based on the quality of the portfolio. It's all about the quality of the collateral manager.”
Tom MajewskiDec 1, 2022▶ 37:28Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Insight
Majewski: In secondary CLO markets, there are no bad bonds, just bad prices
“When you're buying used with limited exception, there's no bad bonds, just bad prices now.
And if someone's a little less good at managing a CLO, we'll just back up our bid five points and maybe that offsets it.”
Tom MajewskiDec 1, 2022▶ 48:19Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Insight
Majewski: Higher default and lower reinvestment price scenarios produce best CLO returns
“Oddly, the higher default, lower reinvestment price scenarios are typically the best, but that goes back to my data about 2006 and seven being the best vintages.”
Tom MajewskiDec 1, 2022▶ 51:14Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Tom Majewski: 2006 and 2007 CLOs far outperformed their pitch-book base cases
“And what turned out to be the 2006 and 2007 CLOs, the vintage medians from those periods far outperformed the base case in the pitch books. Not because they had good loans. They probably had some bad loans, but they had the ability to keep reinvesting with loc…”
Tom MajewskiDec 1, 2022▶ 14:23Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
AssertionSupported
Majewski: CLO AAA and AA securities have zero historical impairments
“There's never been an impairment in the history of the CLO market on a AAA or AA security issued.”
Tom MajewskiDec 1, 2022▶ 23:22Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
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