Prediction Not checkable as stated
Visser: Interest rates will remain lower forever, pressuring allocators
“My belief has always been that rates would be stuck at low levels. We're still at that space, and I continue to believe that they'll be not only lower for longer, but lower forever, and that's putting more pressure than ever on allocators”
Opinion
Visser: Reading books is a waste of time compared to web surfing
“I no longer think books are a good use of time in any way, shape or form. They're a waste of time, but they have a content, but you're not going to consume as much content with a book as you will with surfing, 20 different web pages on the same topic where you…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2051
Visser: There will be no bond market in 30 years
“Well, for governments carrying the interest cost for years, I joked behind closed doors and occasionally on stage where it wasn't being videotaped that there'd be no bonds in 30 years. I still believe that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Within 30 years, bonds will not exist and everything will be free
“I say to people regularly, I don't think there'll be bonds and everything will be free in 30 years. I say it not as a fact or as a guess, but it's something I do believe is coming because of my belief in the impact that nano and three D printing and artificial…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Visser: CRISPR and mRNA will extend lifespans without traditional pharmaceuticals
“With CRISPR and with the messenger RNA and knowing how to use it now, we will be able to solve a lot of problems going forward, which means we're going to be able to keep people alive longer without having to use pharmaceuticals.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Visser: Biotech boom will not produce FAANG-style monopolies
“I don't envision this to be like the tech boom with Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and their ability to dominate the software and smartphone world in terms of getting these big things in web too. I think you're going to have these moonshots on the…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Overall hedge fund returns have barely been positive since August 2007
“If you look at hedge fund returns back to August of oh seven, which was when the quant unwind occurred, if you look at the overall returns of hedge funds, and you just look at any measure there's barely any returns, if any.”
Insight
Behavioral alpha is the primary differentiator as fundamental inefficiencies disappear
“Behavioral alpha, the ability of getting out of stuff at the right time and sizing up at the right time, admitting that you made a mistake and folding your hand and moving on to the next one, those are not easy decisions for people to make, and I think histori…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US-China tech decoupling will drive global markets for the next decade
“China and the US are in a trade war, and probably more importantly, embarking on something which I think has historic implications, or at least for the next 10 years, but it's this relationship from a technology basis with the two technology powers on the plan…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
US equity markets will deliver 8% to 10% annualized returns through 2029
“No, I think the next 10 years in the equity markets, the U.S., and I think globally will be better, but let's just say the U.S., I still think we'll get eight to 10%, and I think it's because rates are still low and money has to go to work somewhere, so I stil…”
Insight
Visser: Reaction function is the most valuable metric for portfolio managers
“That means the reaction function is the most valuable function for analyzing a portfolio manager. If we want to have consistent returns, it's their ability to move their portfolio.”
Insight
Visser: Following market narratives is a complete waste of time
“I don't follow narratives in markets. I think narratives are a waste of time. I follow the wisdom of markets, which means when certain assets are starting to go a direction that doesn't make sense with the narrative, I'll talk to the PM.”
Insight
Visser: IQ is completely commoditized by modern computing power
“IQ is now completely commoditized, both because computers are now in our days and they can consume knowledge faster than we can.”
Prediction Partly held up
Visser: US economy faces an elongated inflationary boom, not stagflation
“So I do believe instead of stagflation, this is an inflationary boom, meaning growth will stay on the higher side. The isms will stay up near 60 for an elongated period of time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Visser: Global governments will keep interest rates low to manage wealth redistribution
“Now, on the government side, they're going to keep rates lower because they can't hurt the distribution of wealth problem, and this is the main thing, is whether it's Japan setting up a wealth distribution council, whether it's China talking about the common p…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Visser: Emerging markets will leapfrog via decentralization in two years
“Over the course of the next two years, I fully expect people to realize that decentralization will allow certain emerging markets to leapfrog. Because they will put it to work faster.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Visser: Blockchain technology will help alleviate the labor shortage
“If I didn't know what the blockchain was, I wouldn't be able to say that it'll help the labor shortage because of the transaction That we're not going to be able to do in the way that we had. I think the blockchain is going to change all that.”
Opinion
Visser: Morgan Stanley was culturally unprepared for emerging markets in early 2000s
“Emerging markets, Morgan Stanley was not set up for that. They didn't understand it. It was a cultural thing and their business was in New York and Japan and Europe.”
Opinion
Visser: Extreme success and genuine kindness rarely coexist in hedge funds
“He was incredibly successful in the hedge fund industry, and at the same point, he was one of the nicest people I had ever met, and those two don't go hand in hand normally in the industry. Most people get into it because of the wealth opportunities”
Opinion
Many hedge fund managers run passive portfolios with minimal active components
“Dynamic managers, hedge fund managers are active managers. Static managers are passive managers. And I think there were a lot of people in the hedge fund industry that were running passive portfolios that had a very small active component.”
Insight
Smart turnover is the most important factor for persistent investment returns
“And to do that, the number one factor we saw over time was the ability of having smart turnover.”
Opinion
Infrequent decision-making cannot justify active management fees in current markets
“If you're investing in making decision changes every six months or every year, that environment I just don't think works anymore if you want to get paid active management fees.”
Insight
Michael Milken prefers bonds over stocks because returns ignore other buyers
“I was with Mike Milken recently, and he specifically said the reason he likes bonds as opposed to stocks from an investment standpoint is, I don't need other people to buy them. I just need them to pay me off. So I'm happy being the only person buying them. In…”
