Nov 8, 2021 · 1h 5m · capital-allocators
Jordi Visser – Analytics and AQ at Weiss (Capital Allocators, EP.221)
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Ted Seides interviews Jordi Visser, President and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors, about leveraging quantitative data analytics, the Adaptability Quotient (AQ), and mental resilience in institutional asset management. Visser shares comprehensive insights on structural inflation, negative real yields, biotechnology breakthroughs, and disciplined probabilistic decision-making.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Ted holds 16.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Ted as informed peer 4.3 Guest teaching 5.6 Guest disagreement 1.7 Ted pushing back 1.3
speaking balance: gold is Ted, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:15 Books are a complete waste of time
Jordi forcefully dismisses the conventional belief in reading books for professional development, arguing that linear book reading is an obsolete waste of time compared to rapid multidimensional web surfing.
Hardest push from Ted ▶ 33:38 Ted pushes back on negative real rate mechanicsTed directly challenges Jordi's framing of negative real rates by separating demand misallocation from sovereign debt affordability constraints, forcing Jordi to justify his underlying structural thesis.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 29:40 Dismantling stagflation narratives via the Misery IndexJordi educates listeners by breaking down why 1970s stagflation comparisons are fundamentally flawed, using Misery Index calculations and labor data to demonstrate an impending inflationary boom instead.
Ted holds their own ▶ 33:38 Ted frames sovereign debt capacity versus demandTed articulates a sophisticated macro counter-hypothesis regarding government debt service thresholds, displaying deep domain expertise in sovereign bond market mechanics.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Ted as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Ted pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm Growth and the Rise of Liquid Alternatives | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ted opens the interview asking for an update on Weiss's growth since 2019. Jordi explains how doubling AUM to four billion was driven by liquid alternatives, customized insurance products, and navigating lower-for-longer yields. | |
| Evolving PM 'Baseball Cards': Awareness, Balance, and Reaction Time | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Ted asks how PM data analytics have evolved. Jordi details the three pillars of the PM baseball cards—awareness, balance, and reaction time—explaining why rising volatility of volatility makes PM reaction function the most crucial metric. | |
| Real-Time Portfolio PM Reaction Functions and Market Inflections | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ted prompts Jordi for a concrete case study of a PM's reaction function. Jordi shares a story of a catalyst-driven PM navigating drawdowns during unsynchronized market conditions and rapidly sizing positions back up based on baseball card insights. | |
| Lessons from Grandmother 'Tex': Growth Through Adversity | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Ted asks about the personal background shaping Jordi's risk mindset. Jordi reflects on his grandmother Tex's perseverance through the Great Depression and World War II, connecting adversity to AQ and provocatively stating books are an obsolete format compared to web surfing. | |
| Assessing AQ, Self-Awareness, and Cultural Alignment in Hiring | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ted probes the specific questioning techniques Jordi uses to assess AQ during hiring. Jordi emphasizes storytelling, emotional self-awareness, and evaluating how candidates handle past adversity over formal credentials. | |
| Transforming Business Development with Data Analytics and Technology | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Ted asks how analytics apply to business development. Jordi contrasts PM talent evaluation with allocator time efficiency, detailing how Zoom visualization and data scientists have replaced traditional regional wholesaler models. | |
| 'Going Over the Top': Time Efficiency in Allocator Meetings | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Ted asks about counterintuitive lessons learned from marketing analytics. Jordi borrows the poker concept of 'going over the top' to advocate cutting meetings short within two minutes if there is no mutual fit to save allocator and manager time. | |
| Macro Outlook: Five-Year Inflationary Boom and Negative Real Yields | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | Ted opens up discussion on the macro environment. Jordi breaks down why he expects a 5-year inflationary boom rather than 1970s stagflation, citing ESG misallocations, structural labor shortages, the Misery Index, and persistent negative real yields. | |
| Sponsor Message: Ridgeline Investment Management Technology | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | Following an ad break, Ted challenges Jordi's thesis on negative real yields, asking whether paper demand misallocation or government fiscal debt affordability will carry more weight. Jordi responds with his radical view that long-term bonds will become obsolete. | |
| Blockchain, Decentralization, and Emerging Market Leapfrogging | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Ted steers toward long-term themes starting with crypto. Jordi explains the core power of blockchain as decentralization, expressing skepticism of AI and highlighting how emerging markets like South America can leapfrog traditional financial infrastructure. | |
| Integrating Blockchain Insights into Institutional Multi-Asset Frameworks | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Ted asks how research on crypto and longevity translates into multi-asset investing. Jordi describes advising ESG-constrained allocators to look at crypto and details how mRNA and CRISPR advancements will transform actuarial life expectancy and pensions. | |
| Smartphone Anxiety, Modern Attention, and Market Volatility | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Ted turns to mental health and societal anxiety. Jordi discusses the polarizing and attention-splintering effect of smartphones, while arguing that modern anxiety also drives polymath learning and uncovers market overreactions like Evergrande. | |
| Managing Anxiety, Mindfulness, and Preventing Trading 'Tilt' | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ted asks how Jordi coaches PMs to manage trading anxiety. Jordi details mindfulness, breathwork, recognizing emotional tilt from poker, and anchoring distressed managers back to their historical baseball card baselines. | |
| Handicapping the Kentucky Derby and Market Risk-Reward | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Ted brings up Jordi's annual Kentucky Derby analysis. Jordi explains how handicapping races directly parallels institutional market pricing, emphasizing value in asymmetric odds over trying to pick crowded favorites. | |
| Handicapping Track Record and the Power of Asymmetric Odds | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ted asks how Jordi's horse racing handicapping aligns with actual outcomes. Jordi candidly explains that winning only 20-25% of asymmetric non-favorite bets generates superior long-term expected returns. |
Statements from this episode (29)
Visser: Weiss AUM reached $4B with most growth during COVID
“We're now at four billion, and most of that growth actually happened during COVID, which has a lot to do, I think, with building the analytics out for the marketing side, but also, I think we spoke about this the last time, we were already using technology to …”
Visser: Interest rates will remain lower forever, pressuring allocators
“My belief has always been that rates would be stuck at low levels. We're still at that space, and I continue to believe that they'll be not only lower for longer, but lower forever, and that's putting more pressure than ever on allocators”
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Visser: Rolling 252-day VVIX volatility bottomed in 2014
“Anyone who follows the VVIX, the volatility of volatility index, if you look at a rolling 252 day volatility, you'll see that it bottomed in 2014.”
Visser: Reaction function is the most valuable metric for portfolio managers
“That means the reaction function is the most valuable function for analyzing a portfolio manager. If we want to have consistent returns, it's their ability to move their portfolio.”
Visser: Following market narratives is a complete waste of time
“I don't follow narratives in markets. I think narratives are a waste of time. I follow the wisdom of markets, which means when certain assets are starting to go a direction that doesn't make sense with the narrative, I'll talk to the PM.”
Visser: IQ is completely commoditized by modern computing power
“IQ is now completely commoditized, both because computers are now in our days and they can consume knowledge faster than we can.”
Visser: Reading books is a waste of time compared to web surfing
“I no longer think books are a good use of time in any way, shape or form. They're a waste of time, but they have a content, but you're not going to consume as much content with a book as you will with surfing, 20 different web pages on the same topic where you…”
Visser: Adaptability Quotient is the dominant metric when interviewing hires
“When I interview people, whether they're a PM, or whether they're someone that's going to help the marketing effort, I'm literally in my head going through an IQ, EQ, AQ measurement, and I'm asking all my questions mainly towards AQ and EQ, but AQ for the most…”
Visser: Only 100 to 200 global institutions can allocate to multi-strats
“Meaning for the institutional side, there's only about a hundred, maybe two 200 potential global investors that can invest enough money in a multi-strategy fund for us to really build relationships with.”
Visser: Asset managers not adopting video and data visualization are missing out
“If you haven't changed your marketing approach at this point to incorporate the power of technology, the power of zoom and the visualization, as opposed to a conference call, you're missing out.”
Visser: Allocators respect marketers more when they cut unproductive meetings short
“You'd be surprised at how much the person on the other end actually respects you more for saying, Hey, I have a lot of time in my day to time has become one of the things for all human beings that has become an issue.”
Visser: Over 50% of US working population has pre-existing conditions
“Over 50% of the working population in the US has preexisting conditions.”
Visser: US economy faces an elongated inflationary boom, not stagflation
“So I do believe instead of stagflation, this is an inflationary boom, meaning growth will stay on the higher side. The isms will stay up near 60 for an elongated period of time.”
Visser: Tech makes up 41% of S&P 500 while energy and materials are 3% each
“The passive boom, when you look at the S&P, it's Right now, 18% technology without the F-A-A-M-G, but when you add Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google as a separate group, that's about 23% of the S&P. 18% is technology, X those names, so you got about 4…”
Visser: There will be no bond market in 30 years
“Well, for governments carrying the interest cost for years, I joked behind closed doors and occasionally on stage where it wasn't being videotaped that there'd be no bonds in 30 years. I still believe that.”
Visser: Global governments will keep interest rates low to manage wealth redistribution
“Now, on the government side, they're going to keep rates lower because they can't hurt the distribution of wealth problem, and this is the main thing, is whether it's Japan setting up a wealth distribution council, whether it's China talking about the common p…”
Visser: Bitcoin is crypto's gold while Ethereum is its oil
“I view Bitcoin as the gold of the crypto world. I view Ethereum as oil for the crypto world or the energy.”
Visser: Emerging markets will leapfrog via decentralization in two years
“Over the course of the next two years, I fully expect people to realize that decentralization will allow certain emerging markets to leapfrog. Because they will put it to work faster.”
Visser: Blockchain technology will help alleviate the labor shortage
“If I didn't know what the blockchain was, I wouldn't be able to say that it'll help the labor shortage because of the transaction That we're not going to be able to do in the way that we had. I think the blockchain is going to change all that.”
Visser: CRISPR and mRNA will extend lifespans without traditional pharmaceuticals
“With CRISPR and with the messenger RNA and knowing how to use it now, we will be able to solve a lot of problems going forward, which means we're going to be able to keep people alive longer without having to use pharmaceuticals.”
Visser: Increased longevity will disrupt pension and insurance actuarial tables
“It has actuarial table implications, which means the insurance industry and the pension industry, both are vulnerable to the situation in terms of if people live a lot longer, the working age population might actually, people might, if they're going to live lo…”
Visser: Biotech boom will not produce FAANG-style monopolies
“I don't envision this to be like the tech boom with Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and their ability to dominate the software and smartphone world in terms of getting these big things in web too. I think you're going to have these moonshots on the…”
Visser: Smartphones and YouTube foster Gen Z polymaths over specialists
“Well, the iPhone is letting you learn a lot of different things the way polymaths did. If you look up multi-potentiality, the Gen Zers that are like polymaths, they're doing different things in the school system. They are learning through YouTube.”
Visser: Elite Traders and Poker Players Minimize Drawdowns by Halting Tilt Early
“And I think the best poker players have that ability of being aware when they're on tilt and then bring it back very quickly before they make a mistake. It's about minimizing mistakes, minimizing drawdowns, which again gets back into less times of being anxiet…”
Visser: Markets Mistakenly Treat Complex Crises Like Evergrande as Binary Outcomes
“The reality is there are so many other horses in the race other than it's going to finish first and it's going to finish last, which is the way most market people get to. There are so many outcomes on the distribution that they don't all end up in the same way…”
Visser: Market success requires analyzing odds rather than picking winners
“Well, my father taught me, which has been great for all markets is not to focus on who's going to win, but look at where the value are on the odds, not the value of the security.”
Visser: Computers have eliminated price and time discrepancies in markets
“Well, computers have arbed out first price discrepancies, but they've also arbed out now time discrepancies. Meaning when you find an idea and you're like, I found it, nobody's in it. Well, no computers are pretty good at using data to find the same idea.”