The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Marko Papic (5)Eric Mogelof (5)Josh Wolfe (4)Larry Siegel (3)Ben Forman (3)Yann Robard (2)Tom Steyer (2)Ted Seides (2)Regan Bozman (2)Rajiv Jain (2)Matt Miller (2)Matt Brown (2)
drag to pan · pinch, buttons, or ⌘/ctrl scroll to zoom
today 201820192020202120222023202420252026 FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 33 assessed early →
The record (139) every resolved claim →
China will reach negative population growth in the 2030s
“In 2030, or sometime in the 20 thirties, China is going to move to negative population growth.”
Khajuria: Private markets will reach $20 trillion or more in a decade
“The 12 trillion dollar industry is bigger than the GDP of most nations. And I think it's headed to grow further in the next decade, perhaps to 20 trillion or more.”
Steyer predicts long-term energy storage systems will be viable by 2033
“Over the next 10 years, we'll have storage systems that enable us to do long-term storage”
Khajuria: Private markets are on track to hit $20T within a decade
“And then equally, if you look at the size and scale of this industry, 12 odd trillion on its way to 20 trillion across private markets in the next decade, this is an important part of the economy, period.”
Kleinman: Mutual Funds and ETFs Will Blend Private Assets into Products
“Traditional asset managers, i.e. Mutual funds, ETFs, they're gonna start injecting some amount of private assets blended into their products.”
Sacerdote: Inference-time reasoning will be adopted by all AI models
“And now deep seek is basically solidifying this inference time reasoning is going to be adopted by all the models.”
Kelly: Private Wealth Will Be the Fastest Growing Source of Alternatives Capital
“The demand from private wealth will be the fastest growing source of capital into alternatives for the foreseeable future.”
Seides: Major private equity platforms will acquire deal teams within five years
“I'd be very surprised if you don't see one of the larger private equity players try to grow through acquiring teams. They are long capital and short origination or dealmaking capability relative to the capital they could command. So it does make sense that if …”
Large institutions will shift to separate accounts over traditional commingled funds
“I think for the biggest institutions, you'll see more separate and managed account platforms that those will gain share because they give just so much more Control. Control and transparency to investors. I think at the big end, you'll clearly see that.”
Sacerdote: Driverless vehicles have hit mainstream takeoff and will expand
“Driverless did hit the mainstream takeoff. We are taking driverless taxis, one basis point of miles driven, and they're going to be rolling out cities, and it's just going to get bigger and bigger. So that is one that's definitely going to be hitting.”
BlackRock's acquisition of Preqin signals upcoming private equity index products
“BlackRock just bought Prequin, and they're going to be putting out private equity index products first”
Bergstrom: Open-ended credit hedge funds are in secular decline
“The open-ended credit hedge fund businesses we believe in, in secular decline, not going away this month or this year. But shrinking significantly in favor of closed-end structures, a big long-term part of that is hurdle rates, as you mentioned.”
Madorsky: AI will build initial PE financial models within three years
“In three years, certainly AI will be able to create a first or second run at our models. It might not be able to fine tune or drive a lot of the assumptions that we need the qualitative rich data that we're collecting, but to actually create and populate the E…”
Robinhood, Revolut, and SoFi will offer private market products
“And even I think we'll get to the Robin Hoods, the Revoluts, the SoFi's, which has embedded some private markets products to the wealth channel within their complex as well.”
U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decade
“Because in 1970, the country spent the same amount on entitlement spending As it did on all of the rest of the non-entitlement discretionary spending. And so that one to one ratio became one and a half to one, then two to one. And now it's three to one, and it…”
Rodman: Rosatom's Exclusion From the West Will Create a Massive Fuel Deficit
“They're close to 50% of the market, and over time, they'll be cut out of western markets, in our opinion, which will create a very big deficit.”
Rodman: Uranium enrichers will shift from suppliers to net buyers
“What the market hasn't fully digested yet, because this market moves in slow motion, is that on a go forward basis, you probably aren't going to get supply from enrichers, and it's very likely that you actually have demand from enrichers, which is a process th…”
The OCIO industry and its service models will consolidate by 2028
“If we looked up five, 10 years, I'd say we're in the early innings in the sense of there will be consolidation in the industry. And there also, there will be a consolidation of models, you know, in terms of, you know, what clients want in terms of their OCIO p…”
McCusker: More Institutional Firms Will Merge With RIA Platforms
“The other thing is this is going to continue to happen. I don't think these are the last two firms that are going to tie up with RIA platforms.”
Khajuria: Private equity minimum investments are dropping to $10,000
“There are 50,000 dollar tickets. There are 20,000 dollar tickets. There are 10,000 dollar tickets coming out. And it's not fully available to retail, but it's coming.”
Majewski: Eagle Point will see a down 10%+ month in five years
“In the next five years, we're going to have a down 10% plus month. I don't know when. I don't know why. I know it's going to happen, and if that's not something you're comfortable with, this is probably not the right investment for you.”
Bank: Talent shift toward multi-manager hedge funds will continue
“So I think that shift of talent toward these bigger platforms is likely to continue.”
Garg: Y Combinator companies will create $500B to $1T in value
“Like, look at Y Combinator. They were giving people 25 to 250,000 dollars, and out of that came Stripe and Airbnb. When you add up all those companies, I think they're probably going to end up creating five hundred billion to a trillion dollars of value.”
Lenehan: China will very shortly become the world's largest economy
“But from our perspective, we actually think that China's going to be the largest economy very shortly. It will grow. It'll continue to grow. At a rate higher than any other developed country kind of post COVID.”
Success Academy Charter Schools aims to educate 100,000 students within a decade
“We're going to have something in the forties in terms of the number of schools, and within the next decade, we'll be
Teaching a 100,000 kids.”
Xu: China's EV leaders will become global market leaders
“And we believe that when China become the largest country
For both manufacturing and consumption, and China's leader will become a global leader.
And we see that happening in the world of electronics manufacturing, in the world of cell phone, and it will happe…”
Lamont: Female VC and CEO Representation Will Rise Concurrently
“You're going to see more female CEOs at the same time you're seeing more VCs, and it's happening.”
Kayden: Telemedicine consumer behavior shifts will not reverse
“That's also true of healthcare where telemedicine had been something been talked about forever. And all of a sudden overnight, It catalyzed a massive change in consumer behavior, and it's not going to go back the other way going forward.”
Friedman estimates Opportunity Zones will increase US GDP by 0.4%
“We estimate it'll increase GDP by four-tenths of percent.”
Kelly: Private Credit Floating-Rate Yields Will Fall as Base Rates Drop
“The expectations have to be base rates are coming down. Distribution rates and yields will come down in those private credit floating rate vehicles.”
Samani: Crypto markets will inevitably experience 50% to 85% drawdowns again
“Stuff in crypto Has over the last 10 years gone down 50 to 85%. It's happened many times. I think it will happen again.”
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Corre: Microsoft's acquisition of Activision will get completed
“And it's still not done, but we feel pretty good that it's going to get done.”
Sports leagues barring PE stakes will quickly pivot to allow them
“And I think the other leagues that have not yet allowed it will change pretty quickly once you see what happens with some of these firms that do sell a stake.”
Orlando Bravo Predicts Thoma Bravo Will Double $80B AUM in Five Years
“In five years, we're going to be double the size. We have eighty billion dollars under management, and we can tell how the portfolio is going to do.”
Rubenstein: Large family offices will increasingly compete against PE firms
“As we go forward, I suspect you'll see more and more competition from family offices that are large and they will do deals competing with private equity firms.”
Direct lending returns will likely fall 200 basis points as banks re-enter
“As that market continues to evolve, and as the banks start to get back into some of these areas, we do think returns are going to come down. Probably by about 200 basis points on average.”
Lasry: Private equity will not return 15-20% over the next three years
“Today, you can make loans at 12 to 15%, because nobody else is making them, and you're senior and you're secured, but I don't think private equity over the next three years is gonna make you 15, 20%, and if it does, that's great,”
Lasry: Bank lending pullback will last 1 to 3 years
“However, the fact that they're not lending and banks aren't lending, that's going to be a year or two years, or maybe even three years.”
Massey: NFL teams will soon adopt motion tracking for personnel decisions
“Teams don't yet use a lot of motion tracking in football. Personnel decisions. Yet. I mean, they're gonna. It's just around the corner. They're beginning to build the base of it.”
Gave: Non-US growth will outperform US growth as the dollar weakens
“I think we're living through the end of the year of US exceptionalism. After a 15 year standing run, the US dollar is now rolled over. I think most people's portfolio is on position for a world of weaker dollar, and one where growth outside of the US is going …”
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Papic: US stock market probably bottomed at 4800
“That's why I think we probably reached the bottom at 4800.”
Gave: Canadian and European Pensions Will Face Pressure to Repatriate Capital
“You're also going to get political pressure on all the Canadian pension funds that are massive to repatriate capital and to bring back money from the U.S. You're going to get the same pressure on European pension funds.”
Dawn: 10 to 20 GP-focused secondary funds will launch in next two years
“It wouldn't be surprised in the next couple of years, there's 10 to 20 new secondary funds focused on the GP side.”
Kayden: Later-stage venture is most vulnerable to market correction
“We don't tend to like larger funds, and we don't like later stage investing, largely because we think that is an area that is sort of more correlated to the public markets, you know, and an arbitrage opportunity, and so at a period of Massive, great inflation.…”
Incoming Biden SEC chair will prioritize mandatory corporate climate disclosures
“So my suspicion is whoever is nominated or potentially in the queue for a SEC chairmanship, this will be a priority for the administration.”
DeVeer: Ares Expects 20% of New Capital From Wealth, Trailing Peers
“Most firms like Aries expect that 40% of their capital raising going forward will come from the wealth channel. That's not our expectation, but I mean, I think if we think about sizing new capital on an annual basis, my guess is something like 20% of our forec…”
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes?
And my answer is everybody.
Everybody.
You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
Geremia: ESG will cease to be an investment term within three years
“The most exciting to me is that ESG will go away. It will not be an investment term in three years, and it has nothing to do with it not being super important.”
MLB commissioner will likely introduce major rule changes to increase action
“I do think, especially because it's at the end of the day, it's an entertainment product. I do think we'll see the commissioner trying to make some significant rule changes. Maybe it's to the strike zone. Maybe it's moving the mound back. To get more offense i…”
Hutchinson: Arctos will add another 20 sports teams to its portfolio
“I'm confident we'll have another 20 teams in that portfolio.”
Gave: Asian currencies and EM bonds will revalue against Western debt
“I think the next coming years, we're now entering a cycle of revaluation of Asian currencies, revaluation of emerging market bonds relative to those of the Western world. I think it started, and I think very few people are positioned for it.”
Garg: Uniswap will try to capture end-user interface value
“So I think in the case of somebody like Uniswap, you're going to see them try to capture more end-user-facing value and try to own that interface.”
Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico will gain as supply chains leave China
“Places like the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Mexico will gain as a result of that kind of second location as they scale back in China and scale up there.”
Permanent shift to online grocery will drive cold storage real estate
“Cold storage facilities as groceries go online as well. Nobody wants to touch that cold tomato or squeeze that line before they buy it, but are willing to buy it online. I think that will be a permanent shift in the convenience factor. So cold storage real est…”
Fisher (2020): At 5% interest rates, every real estate investor goes bankrupt
“No, not a chance. They go to five to six percent. Every real estate investor that we know is bankrupt. They're not hanging on. They're broke and dead. And every home builder in America has no customers. That's a fact.”
Third-party ESG ratings will not converge like credit ratings
“And I think that that will remain over time. People sometimes wonder if they'll converge like the credit rating agencies have converged, but I don't think that's the case because they're fundamentally often measuring different things or placing emphasis on thi…”
Siegel accurately predicts COVID-19 will become an ongoing managed condition
“We'll get this under control, it'll be a new virus that we deal with on a, an ongoing basis, like the flu, or SARS, or MERS, or AIDS, or polio. There will be a vaccine, there may be a cure, and we'll move on to the next crisis.”
Average inflation will exceed pre-2020 decade levels for several years
“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”
Masters: China's savings rate will drop rapidly as demographics mirror Japan
“China's Demographics are rapidly shifting from very healthy, as in, you know, a lot of working age people, to very Japanese-like, and as that occurs, you're going to get the same problems you had in Japan. Savings rates are going to start really dropping very …”
China can sustain 5% to 6% growth without infrastructure spending
“That part of GDP is actually growing quite robustly and will continue to grow, I think, for another at least five to seven years, maybe even 10, but also not forever. And because that's growing at almost 10% a year now, and it's about half of the Chinese econo…”
Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran deal
“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”
Localiza Earnings Will Grow 25% to 30% Annually Post-Acquisition
“So we expect earnings to go at 25, 30% a year with synergies and the growth of the market.”
WEG Can Deliver 25% to 30% Annual IRR at Current Multiple
“It's been a great performer, but we see a 25, 30% IRR per year at the current multiple.”
Dawn: PE secondary market volume in 2024 will top $130 billion record
“2021, which is a high watermark up to this point is about one 30. And I suspect we will beat that number this year.”
Heitzmann: Thousands of startups needing capital will fail by late 2024
“There's thousands of companies that are going to need capital between now and the end of 24. The investors at almost every stage have generally been hurt by the macroeconomic environment. The purse strings are pretty tight. But the amount of companies that may…”
Medicare going cash-flow negative will end excess rents for healthcare monopolies
“And I think that trades over because Medicare is going to go cashflow negative in the next few years.”
Papic: Trump and Biden will both maintain elevated fiscal spending
“I think both of them are likely to pursue very similar policies that keep fiscal thrust, the G in the GDP equation, at a much elevated level than the last cycle for sure.”
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Major automakers will fully transition to EVs by 2024, abandoning gas engines
“You've also seen major sustained investments by the automakers that are of a scope and scale that mean it's not clear when the curve ramps in the small amount, but four years from now, since people aren't doing new engine programs, they're switching to electri…”
Dixon: Web3 payouts will pass Web2 payouts in next couple years
“I believe we'll see in the next couple of years, web three payouts past web two payouts.”
Falls: Sharp Fed rate hikes will trigger bankruptcies and higher defaults
“I do think the Fed is probably at the end of the tightening cycle, but it's been a very sharp, short move. I think it's going to result in bankruptcies, credit events. So I think there will be higher default rates, and I'm not sure that's fully reflected in co…”
Giannini: Global Economies Face Shallow Recession, Not 2008 Crisis
“I think that inflation peaked a while back and is headed down. I don't know if it'll get down to two percent. I don't think it really matters. I think the most global economies outside of perhaps China are going to go into a recession and it will be a shallow …”
Toomey: Venture Debt Market Faces a Retrenchment
“I think the venture debt business, the same thing, you'll have a bit of a retrenchment there.”
Giannini: Bank retrenchment will drive continued expansion in private credit
“The movement away from traditional sources of credit Is only going to continue. Banks are getting out of that business, and what's happened in the U.S. With Silicon Valley and Signature, I mean, there's just going to be more need for private credit. The amount…”
Giannini: A Broad Distressed Debt Cycle Will Not Materialize
“There's not going to be a distress cycle. Sorry, there'll be some distress deals that are interesting, I'm sure, but you sort of had this period where, oh my gosh, things are going bad, let's raise a distress debt fund, and they still are trying, but just tell…”
Garcia: PERA targets 7.25% return using 10% beta leverage and 1% alpha
“What we're looking at is in our beta book, we're looking to incorporate embedded leverage in the asset classes and then about in a very modest amount, which is about 10% at the total asset allocation level. So we think we can get somewhere around a six percent…”
Rodman: Uranium at $50 is not a balancing price and will rise
“It's around 50 dollars now. It's still not a balancing price. We still think there's quite a bit to go”
Paul: The NFT Space Will Probably Grow 100x By 2024
“So I think over the next three years, we're going to see the NFT space grow probably a hundred X in size.”
Friedman: Regulators Will Release Follow-up Rules Followed by Anti-Abuse Guidance
“There will be another set of regulations that will allow people to really be aggressively doing things, and then there'll be abuse regulations, because whenever you create a program of a trillion dollars or more, it's only natural that there'll be abuses, and …”
Mullen: Pretium will likely acquire 15,000 to 20,000 houses in 2023
“And now in portfolios, as an example, we'll probably buy 15 to 20,000 houses this year. But almost entirely in portfolio form.”
Sacca: GPT-5 will train in 2023 and be 6-8x better than GPT-4
“GPT five will be trained this year, and it'll be six to eight times better than four, maybe, maybe more.”
Aitken: Cumulative Fed rate hikes will bite by early Q4 2023
“But as we get into the back end of 2023, my best guess is no later than early fourth quarter. That's a guess. The cumulative impact of hikes starts to bite. The consumer starts to retrench a little. Continuing claims are heading up. The labor market keeps soft…”
Sternlicht: Desperate SPAC sponsors will cut promotes by 25% to 75%
“The outcome of this will be as the two year anniversary of those SPACs births comes around, they would get desperate and they will start cutting their promotes 25, 50, 75%, just so they don't lose the sponsor equity capital they put up. So it's going to be a b…”
Barth: Private markets will see slower realizations rather than valuation volatility
“Obviously, they all have to get audited, and it all has to be gap, and you've got to get Houlihan Loki or someone else to sign off on the valuation, but I don't think you're going to see the volatility in private markets. You're just going to see a real slowdo…”
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Underfunded public pensions will miss 7% returns due to heavy bond allocations
“You can see it easily in the state and city funds that are seriously underfunded, even if they're assuming a seven, seven and a half percent rate of return, which they're not going to get, because they've got 25% in two and a half, three percent bonds. They're…”
Friedman: The 5,000 small US banks will undergo widespread industry consolidation
“There's 5000 small banks in the United States that small banks from a general viewpoint are going to go through a consolidation.”
Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast Enough
“I actually think inflation is rolling over. It's just going to take longer to come down to the acceptable levels, but it's rolling over. It's peaked in our view. The real risk on the headline is energy prices and maybe food prices. I mean, maybe headline can g…”
Turkey Is the World's Best Short; CDS Will Top 1,000 Bps
“We think maybe the best short in the world is Turkey right now. Turkey CDS has gone from about 400 over now to 800 over. We think it's going well over a thousand. The country is going to experience a traditional currency and credit crisis as we've seen in EM w…”
The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control Peg Cannot Hold
“In fact, I think one of the best opportunities in the world, quite frankly, is in Japan, where they have the YCC program, where they have tenure rates pegged to 25 basis points, zero to 25. There's no way that's going to hold in this environment.”
Citrone: Shorting Long-End Japanese Debt Offers 50 to 75 Basis Points
“That's one of the best fixed income shorts in the world today. He may not make a hundred basis points, but it's 50 or 75 basis points to be made in the long end on the short side there, 10 years beyond.”
Legislation will eliminate surprise billing profits for physician practice management businesses
“And conversely, companies that are, have been earning excess rents, I'd say some of the physician practice management businesses where they've benefited from surprise billing, you know, that's now Looks like it's going to be legislated away.”
Showing the 96 most recently due of 139. The timeline above has every one, or browse all resolved claims.