James Aitken
Founder & Managing Partner, Aitken Advisors · 6 appearances on the record.
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analystfounderaitkenadvisors.com ↗
James Aitken founded Aitken Advisors in 2009, operating a macroeconomic consultancy that advises institutional investors and sovereign pools of capital. He previously worked at AIG Financial Products and UBS, where he authored the widely followed market analysis memo Notes from a Small Island.
108statements → 61claims → 25claims resolved → 76%fully supported → 3.68/5average certainty → 2.63/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 21said about them ↓
19 supported 3 partly supported 3 contradicted 36 not checkable as stated how the 61 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
31 predictions · 30 assertions · 24 opinions · 22 insights · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 61 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 25 are resolved, and 36 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how James argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes?
And my answer is everybody.
Everybody.
You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
Their most notable contradicted claim
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of James Aitken on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything James Aitken said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Aitken: US administration is directly signaling global capital to leave
“We now have an administration sending a very direct message over and over again to global capital. And I paraphrase, please go away.”
Aitken: The right allocation to Chinese renminbi assets is zero
“I'll just say generally that the right size exposure to renminbi assets is zero, and perhaps that's something we should take up in another conversation ahead of the Taiwanese presidential elections.”
Aitken: Fixed Income ETF Liquidity Creation is Buy-Side Propaganda
“The idea that ETFs were ever a self-liquifying instrument, that is to say that ETFs create liquidity in their underlying reference securities was always just buy-side propaganda. Absolute garbage. And to see dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens Of credit an…”
Germany's Decision to Punish Greece Triggered the Eurozone Systemic Crisis
“The key assumption Underpinning economic and monetary union. In fact, to this day, there's no default risk in peripheral credit of all kinds, whether it be sovereign or bank or whatever. And Ted, the Germans thought, here's an opportunity to teach everyone a l…”
Secular Stagnation Is a Policy Choice, Not an Inevitable Reality
“Secular stagnation is a euphemism for policy failure, meaning that secular stagnation is a choice.”
Aitken: Expect two horrible quarters of global growth, crushing US equities
“The reality is that we're going to have two quarters of global growth that are going to be absolutely horrible. And in that context, the market clearing price of earnings, and therefore the market clearing price of equities in general, in the US in particular,…”
Aitken: Treasury basis trade did not cause the bond reversal
“It is not the treasury basis trade unwinding. The treasury basis trade this week has been fine. The treasury basis trade does not explain what happened.”
Aitken: Rumors of China dumping US Treasuries are incorrect
“Nor, as Louis would attest, does the convenient but incorrect rumor that, oh, China must be bashing treasuries. Just ignore that.”
Aitken: Private sector lacks balance sheet capacity to intermediate Treasuries
“There is not enough private sector balance sheet capacity to intermediate this enormous stock of treasuries. It's a capacity problem.”
Aitken: Private market funds will face redemption pressures and stock declines
“During this transition, however long it is, we'd be more surprised if we didn't start to read more stories about private something being under pressure. More stories about people who didn't read the prospectus and tried to get the money out and they couldn't a…”
Aitken: Fed must be more hawkish than ever to tame inflation
“The pass-through effect this time, if the Fed's going to succeed in bringing inflation down back to target levels, it's going to have to be more persistent and more hawkish, I would argue, than any of us have experienced.”
Aitken: IRA multiplier will drive US capex for years regardless of 2024 election
“And there is no overstating the profound impact of this Inflation Reduction Act. It is just starting to be felt. It seems every marginal dollar of Western capex coming into the United States, because the tax subsidies are so generous, Not to mention all the sk…”
Aitken: Fed will probably hike rates higher than expected in 2023
“So successful has this bailout been so generous That they're probably going to end up taking the Fed funds rate to a level that none of them actually imagined when they started 2023.”
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes?
And my answer is everybody.
Everybody.
You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
Aitken: US industrial capex buildout matches wartime levels
“This is the sort of industrial capex you normally only see in wartime.”
Aitken: Fundamental investors account for only 5-10% of listed turnover
“And yet the facts are that if you and I, Ted, decide we're going to buy some listed asset today, well, we're going to be five to 10% of the turnover. Because the way the world works today is that the flow is dominated by the machines, and that's not a criticis…”
Aitken: Systematic inflows into liquid stocks will unwind violently
“There's more and more money coming in as volatility comes down into the most liquid stocks. But then at some point, that's all going to turn around. We don't know when. But boy, oh boy, that's going to be a lively couple of days when that happens.”
Aitken: Unprofitable companies unable to refinance face a brutal period ahead
“First and foremost, those are the ones that are going to struggle. It's those profitless companies, no matter what their line of business. And then they've been unable to refinance to this point. Boy, oh boy, it's going to be a brutal period ahead.”
Europe is willing to tolerate recession or stagflation to oppose Putin
“If one takes the belligerent pronouncements Of European politicians and policymakers at face value, it seems that in an effort to thwart Mr. Putin, Europe is prepared to tolerate a recession, or at least something that looks awfully like a textbook definition …”
Bank self-sanctioning drives commodity turbulence, not official government rules
“So to me, it's not the official sanctions that are driving the turbulence under the surface of commodity markets in particular. It's the eagerness of private sector financial institutions and banks in particular To self-sanction, lest they inadvertently releas…”
Energy bottlenecks will persist without political cover for hydrocarbon capex
“Unless oil and gas companies are given unambiguous political cover to expand CapEx once more in the naughty stuff, the non-renewables, then I'm afraid it's difficult to imagine a rapid solution To the energy supply bottlenecks that we're all seeing right now, …”
Average inflation will exceed pre-2020 decade levels for several years
“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”
Western sanctions will not trigger massive inflows into the Chinese renminbi
“So I don't think there's any immediate Re-appraisal of the REM NIMBY as a global reserve asset, and we start to see colossal flows into it, or should I say accelerated inflows out of dollars and euros into REM NIMBY. I'm not convinced.”
Sanctioned Russian crypto inflows would trigger immediate Western regulatory crackdowns
“And if you wanted to give those running US sanctions or European sanctions an opportunity to crack down on crypto markets, then that would be it. Either encourage or facilitate large inflows into crypto, or coins I should say, from people who might Be on the s…”
The other half of the tape: James Aitken's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 21 times in 12 episodes on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Ted Seides 21
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
2020 20 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode
- Sustainable Investing 10: Hiro Mizuno – Changing the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.148)
- Sustainable Investing 9: Reuben Munger – Private Capital Perspective (Capital Allocators, EP.147)
- Sustainable Investing 8: Lauren Taylor Wolfe – Activist Perspective (Capital Allocators, EP.146)
- Sustainable Investing 7: Tony Davis – Hedge Fund Perspective at Inherent Group (Capital Allocators, EP.145)
- Sustainable Investing 6: Richard Lawrence - ESG Integration at Overlook (Capital Allocators, EP.144)
- Sustainable Investing 5: David Blood - Pioneering a Generation (Capital Allocators, EP.143)
- Sustainable Investing 4: Emanuel Citron – Sourcing Sustainable Managers (Capital Allocators, EP.142)
- Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
- 3 more episodes that year, every mention in 2020 →
Appearances (6)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440) | Apr 14, 2025 | 18m |
| James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326) | Jul 10, 2023 | 45m |
| James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239 | Mar 10, 2022 | 34m |
| James Aitken – Systemic Risk in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.126) | Mar 18, 2020 | 31m |
| James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122) | Feb 10, 2020 | 53m |
| James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58) | Jun 25, 2018 | 1h 9m |