Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kayden: VC managers will face significant LP turnover after the boom
“You're going to see a lot of turnover in the LP base for managers broadly, as people see who really performed well, and what was a very promiscuous environment, and those people who stayed at the party too long”
Prediction Held up
Kayden: Later-stage venture is most vulnerable to market correction
“We don't tend to like larger funds, and we don't like later stage investing, largely because we think that is an area that is sort of more correlated to the public markets, you know, and an arbitrage opportunity, and so at a period of Massive, great inflation.…”
Opinion
Kayden: Venture capitalists are painfully naive about their LP base
“I think venture capitalists are painfully naive about who is their investor base and putting themselves in the shoes of the LP and what some of the issues that the LP has when they go to their investment committee making recommendation”
Opinion
Kayden: Venture debt is a disastrous idea for startups during downturns
“I philosophically think that debt on any venture company is a disastrous idea, particularly in times like this, because the banks are not going to be patient.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kayden: A leading endowment put 75% of VC allocation into three managers
“I was talking to a leading endowment yesterday that said that 75% of their venture allocation was to three managers. That's a problem. Well, it's to three managers, each of whom has eight underlying products, and I can tell you, Mathematically, that not all of…”
Insight
Kayden: Tiger Global and Coatue win via fast checks without board seats
“One, we've seen the emergence of firms that write checks really quickly and are extremely aggressive, whether it's Tiger Global, D-One, CO-Two, name your favorite firm. That's just a very different strategy. They don't take board seats, but they're extremely k…”
Insight
Kayden: Growth equity offers superior risk-reward and liquidity over late-stage venture
“We think on a risk reward basis, and our data shows this in our funds over the past five funds, that investing in growth equity on a risk return basis is a far more compelling Opportunity and attractive opportunity, particularly given its liquidity profile tha…”
Opinion
Kayden: Late-stage VCs are bringing poor pricing discipline down to seed
“A lot of the later stage investors have now decided to move into seed, and so some of the promiscuity that you've alluded to comes from the lack of discipline that they had in late stage now being applied to early stage.”
Insight
Kayden: Successful venture investing requires securing ownership early at Series A
“We don't like investing in later stage venture. We believe in venture, you need to be early, or you need to be a series A brand name manager and early, whereby you secure your ownership and knowledge of the businesses very early.”
Opinion
Kayden: Allocations to diverse managers remain experimental, not core for institutions
“There's been no data on that, and so it is very much of an early days in terms of trying to prove that out, and so I think people are separating out a small pool of capital to sort of run an experiment and see what happens with it, but it's not core to their p…”
Disclosure
Kayden: Accolade does not require an attributable track record to back managers
“For us, we don't need a referenceable track record and attributable track record, which I know is very important to certain institutions, but We can sort of gauge how good is this person in terms of being a deal partner, in terms of sourcing, in terms of reall…”
Opinion
Kayden: Lawyers are responsible for pushing aggressive terms onto early VC funds
“I think the lawyers are at fault for pushing some very aggressive terms for first or early funds.”
Opinion
Kayden: Blockchain is a fundamental technology disruptive to venture capital
“One, we thought about it offensively in the sense that we thought this was a sector where our limited partners could make a lot of money, but we also thought about it defensively, that if this was in fact a fundamental technology, which we think it is, that it…”
Insight
Kayden: Mid-stage VC firms competing with massive fast capital face severe pressure
“I think the firms that are at risk or those are sort of in no man's land that are still continue to want to do diligence and feel their value add, but yet They're not investing at the early stage and they're competing against massive pools of capital with a ve…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kayden: Market Correction Will Kill Many Startups But Few VC Funds
“Attrition happens very slowly in our business. So I'm not sure it's that much different from what it is today. I mean, obviously we're going through a very significant correction here. And I think there will be a lot more companies that disappear than farms or…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kayden: Mental Health and Telehealth Startups Face Major Industry Shakeout
“How many mental health, telehealth firms does the world need? I don't know the answer to that, but I can tell you, There'll probably be a couple that survive, but we have dozens of those and each one serves a different niche market. So I think there's going to…”
Insight
Kayden: Funds lack real returns until their portfolios are fully liquidated
“Until you have a fully liquidated portfolio, you really don't have returns.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kayden: Post-dot-com and GFC downturns produced the best venture vintages
“The last time we had a significant correction in venture post the collapse of the internet bubble and people stopped investing in venture, those ended up being the best vintages, particularly, you know, some of the investments that were made during the global …”
Insight
Kayden: Startups need 24 months of runway because fundraising starts at month 18
“You're on the right side of the angels if you have 24 months of cash, because you got to realize you got to start fundraising at 18 months, not at month 24.”
Insight
Kayden: Enterprise startup success is far easier to predict than consumer
“We skew very heavily towards enterprise versus consumer because we think it's easier to predict success when someone's writing a check versus how individuals respond to a product or to a new social media engagement, etc.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kayden: Crypto represents 2% of portfolios but dominates 110% of IC discussions
“Every single investment committee is asking its staff What is our exposure to crypto? And so two percent of the portfolio is now consuming 110% of the discussion at the IC.”
Insight
Kayden: Venture Capital Funds Allegedly Last 10 Years but Really Last 15
“You know, we invest in funds. They last 10 years, allegedly, but really they last 15 years, and they're not liquid, so we better make the right decision a priori.”
Insight
Kayden: Early sector specialists win in fintech and healthcare via regulatory expertise
“Then we believe sector specialists, particularly early on in the lives of companies, have a reason to win, whether that's in fintech firms like Ribbit, QED, firm like Transformation Capital and Healthcare. These are Each huge industries, fintech, healthcare, w…”
Insight
Kayden: Cap table diversity and diverse recruiting increasingly win startup founders
“And then maybe this is somewhat self-serving, but we are hearing this a lot, particularly from young founders that diversity on the cap table really matters. And so I think firms that offer that lens either by having available individuals who can serve as boar…”