Joelle Kayden (Founder and Managing Director of Accolade Partners) explains historical institutional allocator psychology and returns after major tech market downturns.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kayden: VC managers will face significant LP turnover after the boom
“You're going to see a lot of turnover in the LP base for managers broadly, as people see who really performed well, and what was a very promiscuous environment, and those people who stayed at the party too long”
Prediction Held up
Kayden: Later-stage venture is most vulnerable to market correction
“We don't tend to like larger funds, and we don't like later stage investing, largely because we think that is an area that is sort of more correlated to the public markets, you know, and an arbitrage opportunity, and so at a period of Massive, great inflation.…”
Opinion
Kayden: Venture capitalists are painfully naive about their LP base
“I think venture capitalists are painfully naive about who is their investor base and putting themselves in the shoes of the LP and what some of the issues that the LP has when they go to their investment committee making recommendation”
Opinion
Kayden: Venture debt is a disastrous idea for startups during downturns
“I philosophically think that debt on any venture company is a disastrous idea, particularly in times like this, because the banks are not going to be patient.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kayden: A leading endowment put 75% of VC allocation into three managers
“I was talking to a leading endowment yesterday that said that 75% of their venture allocation was to three managers. That's a problem. Well, it's to three managers, each of whom has eight underlying products, and I can tell you, Mathematically, that not all of…”
Insight
Kayden: Tiger Global and Coatue win via fast checks without board seats
“One, we've seen the emergence of firms that write checks really quickly and are extremely aggressive, whether it's Tiger Global, D-One, CO-Two, name your favorite firm. That's just a very different strategy. They don't take board seats, but they're extremely k…”