Aitken: Cumulative Fed rate hikes will bite by early Q4 2023
James Aitken · James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326) · Jul 10, 2023 · at 48:34
Macro consultant James Aitken outlines his forecast for when the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening will visibly slow US economic activity.
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“But as we get into the back end of 2023, my best guess is no later than early fourth quarter. That's a guess. The cumulative impact of hikes starts to bite. The consumer starts to retrench a little. Continuing claims are heading up. The labor market keeps softening, and things just get a little bit squeezy and a bit tighter, and that's all to play for.”
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