US economy

“Because we were all picking up the pieces of an equity collapse that was really, for the most part, unrelated To the performance of the U.S. Economy. It had everything to do with risk-taking, and not even so much leverage, it was just ridiculous risk-taking an…”

“My sense is, subject to revision, that we're looking at late cycle asset price valuations, but shockingly, the US economy might be mid-cycle”

“You would think based on that observation, the probability is higher that in 2018 and 2019, the US economy will run a bit hotter than it has done over the past several years.”

“So the question I think you have to ask yourself is, will we go back to that type of financialized leveraged Corporate sector and investment portfolio. And I would say that it's pretty clear to me that is not happening. Okay. And so if that's not happening, th…”

“We entered an era with Greenspan of a fairly decent kink in the cumulative debt curve. It had been drifting up very slowly, and then it started to rise very rapidly since his era. What you notice is that despite the fact that the debt ratio Per unit of GDP has…”

“I think the economy is going to grow. I mean, I think we're going to have an eight percent GDP this year.”

“The prices get absurdly low on pretty good credits, and it's also a time when the US economy was recovering from a recession in the late eighties, so you had an economy pointed up and bond prices going down, and it made no sense.”

“But as we get into the back end of 2023, my best guess is no later than early fourth quarter. That's a guess. The cumulative impact of hikes starts to bite. The consumer starts to retrench a little. Continuing claims are heading up. The labor market keeps soft…”

“You can't finance the US economy with senior debt at 12%. You'll create a depression.”

“There's something wrong with the U.S. Economy if Rhodes Scholars are coming to work at a hedge fund”

“So, we think the chance of a recession in the US is quite high over, say, a three-year time horizon, and it doesn't appear that markets are currently pricing that in.”