Michael Cembalest, strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, analyzes the macro drivers behind the dot-com market crash and corporate accounting scandals in the early 2000s.
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“Because we were all picking up the pieces of an equity collapse that was really, for the most part, unrelated To the performance of the U.S. Economy. It had everything to do with risk-taking, and not even so much leverage, it was just ridiculous risk-taking and valuations.”
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More from Michael Cembalest
Insight
Neither quantitative nor qualitative models can reliably forecast currency markets
“I never wanted my views on the dollar to be more than a five-minute discussion, because if there's anything I've learned in my career, the quantitative models don't work, the qualitative models don't work, there is a random stochasticness associated With curre…”
Michael CembalestApr 23, 2018▶ 34:06Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
Insight
Cembalest: Managing currency risk does not sustainably generate positive returns
“I've never seen sustainable efforts to reliably manage currency risk as a way to generate positive returns in portfolios.”
Michael CembalestApr 23, 2018▶ 34:40Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
PredictionDidn’t hold up
Cembalest: US municipal restructurings will rise continuously without federal intervention
“But absent intervention from the Fed or the Treasury, which I have a 95% confidence won't happen, we're gonna have Can you continuously rising stream of restructurings at the municipal level over the next few years?”
Michael CembalestApr 23, 2018▶ 43:32Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
AssertionContradicted
Bondholders lose more than pensioners in every US municipal restructuring to date
“And in the seven or eight restructurings that have happened so far at the municipal level, that's exactly what's happened. Every time there's been a pensioner and retiree healthcare write down, the bondholders lost more as a percentage of par.”
Michael CembalestApr 23, 2018▶ 46:09Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
PredictionDidn’t hold up
U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decade
“Because in 1970, the country spent the same amount on entitlement spending As it did on all of the rest of the non-entitlement discretionary spending. And so that one to one ratio became one and a half to one, then two to one. And now it's three to one, and it…”
Michael CembalestApr 23, 2018▶ 49:15Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
What-if
A Bernie Sanders-style tax plan would barely dent the U.S. entitlement ratio
“And secondly, even if you do a Bernie Sanders level tax plan, which is basically taxing everything that moves, it only brings that ratio from five to one back to baby three and a half or 3.8 to one.”
Michael CembalestApr 23, 2018▶ 50:03Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
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