US Economy

“If you just look at like how much of, you know, dollars are spent in the U S economy on labor versus software, it's like something like 40 times more.”

“Because if you see yields, if you see the third year at six percent, it is the beginning of a death spiral. It's not going to be immediate, ok, so don't freak out, but it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last years.”

“The U S economy surpassed that of UK in around the But then U.S. Dollar did not totally replace starting until like almost a hundred years later. So it's a very long and gradual process and full of changes, apps announced.”

“I personally think the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of it is responsible for keeping our economy, at least the stock market in relatively good shape.”

“We currently have a 4.3% unemployment rate in the economy. Economists consider five percent to be full employment. So basically unemployment is at or near record lows right now, despite the fact that we're over three years into this AI wave.”

“Well, I think that the recovery is, ah, I think it's, ah, it's gone on a good while, and, ah, it's, ah, it's not nascent, it's not adolescent, ah, it's, but it's also not, ah, ah, geriatric. I think it's in middle age, ah, and I think the US economy, if that's…”

“That, that, well, that is the area that's booming in our economy. And I need people who know more about AI than me to tell me whether it's going to bust. You know, the question is, is all of this, or is some of this construction unwarranted? I don't think anyb…”

“If you look at the success arcs of these systems, over time they resemble U S economy more and more sort of like they typically start out with a fixed money supply and like, we'll, we'll figure out how to inject more money later. And then suddenly more people …”

“So, but I think the US economy is so much larger than it was 10 years ago. So to grow that, even at a half a percentage point higher than, you know, that, that's a massive contribution. So I expect it to play out that way.”

“If you can get the average American to work one year longer, that is worth three trillion dollars to the US economy.”

“Now the entire US economy is sort of a bet on AGI”

“Well, I think you can run four to six percent durably without inflation, which is magic.”

“At the end of the day, if the models don't improve, we're absolutely screwed, and in fact, the US, like, you know, in another year, if this lasts another year, and then it happens, like, the US economy will go into a recession, like, straight up because of thi…”

“And in the US, it's 3.2 trillion. Our economy is, I think, 35, 36. It's almost 10% of the economy is logistics.”

“So, we think the chance of a recession in the US is quite high over, say, a three-year time horizon, and it doesn't appear that markets are currently pricing that in.”

“We're moving to this new world where it's, we're gonna be a high investment economy that's basically gonna invest between Two and four percent of GDP in private capex investment, which is massive. The growth band could pretend, you know, a high productivity, a…”

“The people go, we are contributing 43, forty four billion dollars to the US economy every year through student education.”

“Around, you know, 1971, basically the U.S. Economy permanently downshifted its growth rate. And both in terms of productivity growth, which of course measures technological transformation in the economy as well as economic growth.”

“Those wealthy individuals who have access to capital, who have access to resources, and can drive, you know, unbelievable profits and great outcomes. But there's a broad part of the economy, and I think we see this in the political sector being expressed prett…”

“What you're probably going to see in Q three and beyond is more similar to Q two, which is to say a large surplus, good GDP expansion. And moderating inflation.”

“The current estimate is six percent deficit to GDP, 2.4% inflation. So we've actually got a little bit of room to run on inflation. And GDP growth this year of 1.4%.”

“34% of the S&P is represented by seven companies, and 50% of the equity value of the world, and 70% of the enterprise value, if included the debt, is wrapped up in the U.S. Economy, which has seven companies, and if any of those seven companies sneeze, the who…”

“Getting this AI federal preemption in that bill was probably the best thing, the top of the list for me. In terms of critically important for the US economy.”

“Around 1971, basically the U.S. Economy permanently downshifted its growth rate. And both in terms of productivity growth, which of course measures technological transformation in the economy as well as economic growth.”

“Healthcare is 20% of the economy on its way to 50%.”

“I think that, that those will erode our economic strength in ways that don't look like an abrupt crash, but they'll look like data getting, like, a little bit worse and a little bit worse. That's my prediction, but again, hard to say.”

“In fact, we did a study where 25% of every single sector in the U.S. Economy and 90% of subsectors, the top 10 companies own 25% of the industry.”

“You can't just cut two trillion dollars in a single year. That would be an 800 basis point headwind to GDP. It would throw us into a recession, if not depression, like state.”

“So I think what the market was saying is, okay, three hundred billion, half of that will show up as increased prices and taxes on consumers and on businesses. Half of it will get eaten by the producer of the product in China, in India, wherever, you know, that…”

“The probability that you're going to land this plane and just a really smooth landing, I think is, is challenging to see, right? It's, We're going to have some wins. We're going to have some losses.”

“If as of, you know, Tuesday afternoon, you know, the tariffs that have been proposed, if those roll through you know, this is going to be a total disaster.”

“And what you get is a loss in the 30 trillion dollar range as the present value as estimated by markets of what's being done.”

“I think people are going to be stuck in this state of paralysis a little bit of like, what do we actually do right now? And inherently, I think that becomes self-fulfilling in the way that it's going to lead to a recession for us. I hope, again, I hope I'm wro…”

“I don't think this is a gross scare. I think that growth is actually slowing. So scare implies that you're wrong and you shouldn't be scared. Like things are slowing and they're going to slow. And there's a soft patch for sure. If not something worse than that…”

“So I think this, there's an over correction here that's happening, which I think is dangerous. And I think it's going to slow down the pace of cuts. Which I think will then create a lot of other pressure in the economy.”

“My belief is that if we're targeting tariff revenues going from sixty-five billion to a trillion, I don't think the US economy is prepared for that, and I think that pushes us into a recession.”

“And I would say in March of 21, the economy didn't need rescue, it was already in recovery.”

“The most incredible stock market was actually under Biden. The most amount of money printed was under Biden. The most cumulative total budget deficits was under Biden. The most amount of short-term refinancing of debt Was under Biden.”

“And you're absolutely right that by the midterms we'll be turning things around. And that's like the timeline to expect.”

“Cutting taxes, three to four hundred billion dollars a year is going to accelerate it. We are going to get efficiency and productivity gains from AI. Like these things are happening.”

“Electric infrastructure in the United States in twenty-twenty-five is now a gating item to have the flourishing economy we want for the next 20 or 50 years.”

“But like when you then compound, you know, Elon in there, it's like night and day in terms of, you know, one side is going to just reduce the regulation. It's going to be driving, it's going to be a growth oriented, you know, more dynamic, you know, kind of dr…”

“I think that the US economy Could be growing at four or five percent, but the reason that it doesn't grow at four or five percent is in that one single chart.”

“Because I really think growth slows because you fall out of product market fit. Too many people blame the markets or the VCs or the downturn, but there's no downturn in the US economy.”

“This year, I think their fiscal deficit will be about eight, eight and a half percent.”

“Over the last four decades, our markets had become much more consolidated primarily through waves of mergers and acquisitions which in part were permitted through a much more lax approach to antitrust laws and policing mergers.”

“We're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downward.”

“The economy is a little bit shaky, and it's being propped up by massive amounts of government spending, like we talked about on a previous episode. We're running unsustainably high levels of deficit and debt. We're running, what, two trillion dollar a year def…”

“I think we're in a recession. It probably becomes more obvious in Q three and Q four.”

“I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election, because there's too many incentives for people to hide it.”

“So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.”

“My position is I think he might have already stuck the landing.”

“We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible.”

“I think we're in a vibe session right now because we're not in a recession, but people are feeling really bad.”

“So however it has been structured, just sitting here today in 2024, It's broken for more people than it's working for.”

“The US economy downshifted its rate of technological change you know, basically since the 19 sixties in technological changes measured by productivity growth in the economy was much faster prior to the last 50 years than the most recent 50 years.”

“My prediction for the year was bumpy landing. I thought soft landing was a little too optimistic. And I also thought that this big stock market rally that we had in November, December was too much too soon.”

“There's something wrong with the U.S. Economy if Rhodes Scholars are coming to work at a hedge fund”

“Samuelson was the, you know, basically for economics, it says, by the seventies, the Soviet Union will have overtaken the US economy.”

“There's never been a time when inflation was above four and unemployment was below four and the U.S. Economy didn't go into recession before that situation was resolved.”