US economy

“It cannot come roaring back.”

“Getting back to work is going to be much, much more difficult than people think. I think that In the absence of a vaccine, which looks like at best, 18 to 24 months from now, we will never get to a hundred percent of where we were before, or at least the poten…”

“In the 19, when the great Chinese economic reformer, Deng Xiaoping, decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making two dollars a day, and today their economy is roughly the size of the US.”

“If I do think the economy is going to bounce back really strong next year because of the vaccines, right? I think you've got to say that if these vaccines and COVID in the next three, four, five months, 20, 21 is going to be a great year.”

“We added 379,000 jobs in February, which beat expectations by 200,000. They also revised the January gains up 166,000. So now the unemployment rate is down to 6.2%.”

“This is going to backfire massively.”

“I think it's coming. I don't think it's a short term blip. And I think that we are in a period that will resemble the late seventies.”

“And unless it gets fixed, it could absolutely cause a 1970 style stagflation type recession next year.”

“Manchin would do Biden the biggest favor by just putting a bullet in this Build Back Better plan, because I actually think there'd be a massive relief rally And the economy would take off like a rocket next year.”

“And so, I think there's actually like a much greater risk now of the economy going to recession this year because of the Fed's overreaction this week.”

“The risk in my opinion is not of runaway inflation anymore.”

“And this is going to hurt us. This, I mean, look, this is one of those things that the administration thinks doesn't affect them, but you know what, when our economy goes into recession, because this is a straw that breaks the camel's back, it, voters are goin…”

“It's strong there that technology does cause deflation. It's deflationary. But this is not going to help us get out of what's coming over the next year or two.”

“So it seems to me that we don't have a lot of tools here and we could end up with something like a stack, the Stagflation where we continue to see inflation with a slowing economy.”

“We're definitely going into a slowdown. And whether it becomes a recession to be determined, I think there's a very good chance because We already were headed for a slowdown because of interest rate increases because of inflation. And now on top of it, we've g…”

“I think that, that we're probably going to have a quarter or two contraction. It's probably going to happen to sort of at the late end of this year, beginning of next year.”

“We're bouncing along record low unemployment. Those two things could be what saves us could save us during this recession.”

“I do think that this capital overhang, however, this quarter trillion dollars of dry powder that's sitting in VC coffers is going to be significantly stimulatory in a very good way. I think it will create real jobs and enable real progress.”

“But I think we probably are in a recession and that that recession will get, get worse. But you know, these things pass and then there will be boom times again. So that'll probably be some tough going for, I don't know, a year maybe, maybe, you know, 12 to 18 …”

“So it seems to me like we're headed into a pretty serious downturn or recession here.”

“I just am skeptical. There's going to be a soft landing because of what Chamath is saying, which is, this is a multi-part problem. And until we fix the supply side, I don't think that merely reducing demand is going to get us out of this.”

“We were kind of in a supply side recession, and now by raising rates to some crazy amount, the end of which we're still not sure about, may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand side recession.”

“First of all, it's raising taxes by seven hundred thirty nine billion at a time when we're entering a recession.”

“So look, I, if I had to, I think we're in a shallow technical recession right now, I bet that we probably bounce out of it in Q three or Q four, but I think there's a significant risk that we're back in. We're back in it next year.”

“And we're in a, we're in stagflation. The Fed has to keep raising interest rates at the same time that we have persistent high Chronic inflation.”

“So I think Saks you are right that we will be there. Because you can only bring rates up so high until you break things.”

“There's a, there's an inevitability now that unemployment is going to rise. There is an inevitability now that the economy is going to contract.”

“I think we're headed for a broad-based recession.”

“My prediction was a double dip recession, where you had this shallow technical recession, then it bounced back in Q three. But now I think we're headed into the second part of it, which is the real recession, a recession characterized by joblessness.”

“I'd say that relative to where we were a month ago, you'd have to say that the odds of us having a soft landing this year are quite a bit better than they were. Just a few weeks ago.”

“I still think there's a really good chance of recession later this year”

“If you can get the cost of energy in this country to drop by 50 to 75%, and you can increase energy capacity by 10 to 20 fold, then you have a fighting chance, because you can actually grow the economy out of the problem. And that's really where I am optimisti…”

“I'm sticking by it. I think we're still gonna have a recession, but it is an interesting paradox here.”

“And the reason there's not going to be a hard landing is you just saw China today basically say we're going to start to rip in trillions of dollars. They're going to stimulate the economy. You can't have a hard landing when China's printing trillions of dollar…”

“What you're seeing over the last few weeks, it's just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing. That we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.”

“However, there is typically a big lag in the impact on the real economy of rate hikes, and I think you could still see these rate hikes take effect over the next several months, and you could see a real dip in the economy, potentially a recession, and that wou…”

“There's never been a time when inflation was above four and unemployment was below four and the U.S. Economy didn't go into recession before that situation was resolved.”

“Samuelson was the, you know, basically for economics, it says, by the seventies, the Soviet Union will have overtaken the US economy.”

“My prediction for the year was bumpy landing. I thought soft landing was a little too optimistic. And I also thought that this big stock market rally that we had in November, December was too much too soon.”

“So however it has been structured, just sitting here today in 2024, It's broken for more people than it's working for.”

“I think we're in a vibe session right now because we're not in a recession, but people are feeling really bad.”

“We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible.”

“My position is I think he might have already stuck the landing.”

“So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.”

“I think we're in a recession. It probably becomes more obvious in Q three and Q four.”

“I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election, because there's too many incentives for people to hide it.”

“The economy is a little bit shaky, and it's being propped up by massive amounts of government spending, like we talked about on a previous episode. We're running unsustainably high levels of deficit and debt. We're running, what, two trillion dollar a year def…”

“We're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downward.”

“I think that the US economy Could be growing at four or five percent, but the reason that it doesn't grow at four or five percent is in that one single chart.”

“The most incredible stock market was actually under Biden. The most amount of money printed was under Biden. The most cumulative total budget deficits was under Biden. The most amount of short-term refinancing of debt Was under Biden.”

“And I would say in March of 21, the economy didn't need rescue, it was already in recovery.”

“So I think this, there's an over correction here that's happening, which I think is dangerous. And I think it's going to slow down the pace of cuts. Which I think will then create a lot of other pressure in the economy.”

“And what you get is a loss in the 30 trillion dollar range as the present value as estimated by markets of what's being done.”

“Getting this AI federal preemption in that bill was probably the best thing, the top of the list for me. In terms of critically important for the US economy.”

“The current estimate is six percent deficit to GDP, 2.4% inflation. So we've actually got a little bit of room to run on inflation. And GDP growth this year of 1.4%.”

“What you're probably going to see in Q three and beyond is more similar to Q two, which is to say a large surplus, good GDP expansion. And moderating inflation.”

“If you can get the average American to work one year longer, that is worth three trillion dollars to the US economy.”

“We currently have a 4.3% unemployment rate in the economy. Economists consider five percent to be full employment. So basically unemployment is at or near record lows right now, despite the fact that we're over three years into this AI wave.”

“I personally think the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of it is responsible for keeping our economy, at least the stock market in relatively good shape.”

“Because if you see yields, if you see the third year at six percent, it is the beginning of a death spiral. It's not going to be immediate, ok, so don't freak out, but it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last years.”