Andrew Milgram
Managing Partner & CIO, Marblegate Asset Management · 1 appearance on the record.
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Milgram co-founded Marblegate Asset Management in 2008, managing middle-market distressed credit, corporate reorganizations, and special situations. He is known for high-profile restructuring transactions, notably involving New York City taxi medallions and Education Management Corporation.
36statements → 20claims → 12claims resolved → 50%fully supported → 3.78/5average certainty → 2.31/5average debate potential →
6 supported 4 partly supported 2 contradicted 8 not checkable as stated how the 20 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
5 predictions · 15 assertions · 6 opinions · 7 insights · 3 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 20 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 12 are resolved, and 8 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Andrew argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
Everything Andrew Milgram said on Invest Like the Best that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Milgram: 2025 Business Bankruptcies Will Remain High or Increase
“Based on the data we see to date and the bankruptcies that we've already seen in 2025, we would expect 2025 to show persistent and possibly higher number of business bankruptcy filings.”
Milgram: Tariffs over 5% will devastate middle-market margins and debt service
“For the middle market, though anything above like a five or six percent tariff will have a devastating impact on margin, and consequently on the ability to service their debt stock.”
Milgram: Most Distressed Investors Merely Trade Cheap High Yield
“Today, a lot of, you know, the folks that call themselves distressed investors, again, I view them as buying cheap high yield and sort of Participating as pure financial investors and portfolio traders but they will outsource all of that critical thinking.”
Milgram: Early Uber Expanded NYC Car Service Rather Than Stealing Taxi Riders
“There was this perception that they were taking riders away from taxis, and that was not at all the case. The data was super clear. They were expanding point-to-point car service in New York. They were taking drivers away from yellow.”
Milgram: Uber exploited information asymmetry by pushing non-cash costs onto drivers
“Uber was taking advantage of an information asymmetry, so they understood that a driver didn't really understand the full picture of their cost structure, and that they were making a very cash-based decision, but they were pushing a lot of those non-cash or no…”
Milgram: Taxi medallions will become capital assets for autonomous vehicle fleets
“While autonomous will probably someday displace the driver and therefore displace their earnings power, you can swap that earnings power for the ability to contribute capital, right? So the medallion becomes a capital asset that they contribute into the system…”
Milgram: Fitch Data Shows 82% of Private Credit Is Single-B- or Lower
“According to Fitch, about 82% of, ah, the private credit market exists in the single B minus and lower credit, credit quality space.”
Milgram: Fitch Shows Largest Share of Private Credit Is CCC-Equivalent Debt
“Triple C's, for instance, default at about a three year, 30% cumulative default rate. So you know, the largest portion of private credit, according to Fitch, is in triple C equivalent.”
Milgram: Private Credit Has Become Largely a Brokered Market
“The private credit universe used to be a direct origination business. There is some direct origination that goes on in private credit today, but it's largely a brokered market which is a kind of a dirty little secret.”
Milgram: U.S. middle-market EBITDA is down 20% to 25% since 2019
“I think over the measurement period in the most recent data EBITDA has been down sort of 20, 25% since 2019.”
Milgram: Middle-market net profits after tax are consistently negative over two years
“When we look in the middle market, we see that that net profits after tax is down almost 200% over the measurement period. So that is, it is consistently negative over the past two years.”
Milgram: 2023 Data Showed Almost 25% of Middle-Market Companies Missed Debt Service
“In the 2023 data, we saw that almost 25% of the companies in the data set couldn't make their debt service coverage.”
Milgram: 2024 Data Showed Another 20% Missed Debt Service Coverage
“The 24 data that we're living with now in 25 showed that another 20% of the data set couldn't make their debt service coverage.”
Milgram: Tariffs will not harm and could benefit large public companies
“For the ticker tape economy, the tariffs are not going to be terrible. In fact, they could be constructive.”
Milgram: Middle-Market Companies Still Get Most Capital From Banks
“The middle market continues to get most of its capital out of the banking system.”
Milgram: Top Turnaround Firms Cost Too Much for Middle-Market Companies
“There are some great firms out there FTI, Alvarez, Alex Partners that specialize in doing that, you know, again, particularly on behalf of the portfolio investors who are more traders in this space than investors. But, A, those firms are large. They have large…”
Milgram: Banks act as regulatory actors rather than economic actors
“Banks always make decisions for three reasons. Regulatory, regulatory, and regulatory. They, people think of banks as economic actors. They're not. They're regulatory actors.”
Milgram: Investing in distressed assets without operational involvement is malpractice
“I would argue it's almost like investment malpractice to invest in a distressed asset, not taking an active operational role in addition to the financial restructuring role.”
Milgram: IRS paid $200B in ERTC claims within one year
“I think when the government did this we've heard some estimates that say they anticipated it to be a fifty billion dollar program. About a year in they had paid out two hundred billion.”
Milgram: Marblegate bought ERTC claims at 85-86 cents on the dollar
“We were paying about 85, 86 cents on the dollar. One of the provisions of the law was that from when you filed, the government owed you an interest rate while you waited for the refund six or seven percent.”
Milgram: Outsourcing investment decisions creates fee-motivated misalignment
“I would also say one of the things I don't like that's happening out there is the productization of investment decisions. So there's a lot of outsourcing of critical thinking because I can go to this person that can, that'll make this decision for me, and I'll…”
Milgram: Non-operational private equity firms probably have little future
“I think the sort of standard, you know, group of great deal makers who knows some allocators or rich families that will back them in buying companies, but they don't actually do anything other than buy the company and show up for board meetings. I think those …”
Milgram: America's K-shaped economy isolates capital-rich winners from lagging broad sectors
“Those wealthy individuals who have access to capital, who have access to resources, and can drive, you know, unbelievable profits and great outcomes. But there's a broad part of the economy, and I think we see this in the political sector being expressed prett…”
Milgram: Large corporations squeeze middle-market suppliers on costs and financing
“Middle market companies typically don't serve the end consumer. They typically serve the larger public company. So there's larger public companies which have pricing power with their customer who tends to be the end consumer. Also have pricing power over their…”
Appearances (1)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| The Data on America's Economic Split | Andrew Milgram Interview · Invest Like The Best | Aug 5, 2025 | 1h 20m |