The Argument Index
Debate potential by speaker, the highest-scored statement each year, and the companies with the most bearish calls on record. All of it clickable, all of it playable.
People
Average debate potential by speaker
All 65 guests with 5 or more scored statements, ranked. 0 more have fewer than 5, too few for a fair average, and the host is scored on his own page. Sort or filter below.
| # | Person | Avg debate potential | Statements scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Giffon Founder & Investor, Octave | 2.97 | 34 |
| 2 | William Hockey CEO and Founder, Column | 2.92 | 37 |
| 3 | Walter Russell Mead Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute | 2.91 | 47 |
| 4 | Ben Thompson Founder & Author, Stratechery | 2.84 | 37 |
| 5 | Gavin Baker Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 2.82 | 153 |
| 6 | John Kim Former Chief Development Officer, General Catalyst | 2.79 | 14 |
| 7 | Brian Chesky Co-founder and CEO, Airbnb | 2.79 | 33 |
| 8 | Shyam Sankar CTO & EVP, Palantir Technologies | 2.78 | 49 |
| 9 | Barry Diller Chairman and Senior Executive, IAC | 2.75 | 16 |
| 10 | Sam Altman CEO, OpenAI | 2.72 | 53 |
| 11 | Dylan Patel Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 2.7 | 94 |
| 12 | Ben Horowitz Co-Founder and General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz | 2.68 | 31 |
| 13 | Matt Smith Founder & CIO, Chronometer Partners | 2.57 | 35 |
| 14 | Dan Sundheim Founder & CIO, D1 Capital Partners | 2.56 | 48 |
| 15 | Rob Wachen Co-Founder & President, Etched | 2.55 | 31 |
| 16 | Dan Wang Research Fellow, Hoover Institution | 2.55 | 56 |
| 17 | Bill Gurley General Partner, Benchmark | 2.54 | 48 |
| 18 | Joe Liemandt Principal, Alpha School | 2.53 | 77 |
| 19 | Eric Vishria General Partner, Benchmark | 2.52 | 29 |
| 20 | Neil Movva Co-Founder and CEO, Sail Research | 2.48 | 67 |
| 21 | Dan Loeb Founder, CEO & CIO, Third Point LLC | 2.47 | 36 |
| 22 | Ramtin Naimi Founder & General Partner, Abstract Ventures | 2.45 | 49 |
| 23 | Gokul Rajaram Founding Partner, Marathon Management Partners | 2.42 | 36 |
| 24 | Jared Kushner Founder & CEO, Affinity Partners | 2.41 | 148 |
| 25 | David George Head of Growth Investing, Andreessen Horowitz | 2.38 | 32 |
| 26 | Scott Nolan Founder & CEO, General Matter | 2.32 | 38 |
| 27 | Ari Emanuel CEO, TKO Group Holdings | 2.32 | 41 |
| 28 | Andrew Milgram Managing Partner & CIO, Marblegate Asset Management | 2.31 | 36 |
| 29 | Reed Hastings Co-Founder, Netflix | 2.3 | 37 |
| 30 | Sergey Levine Co-Founder, Physical Intelligence | 2.27 | 49 |
| 31 | Jesse Zhang Co-Founder and CEO, Decagon | 2.27 | 37 |
| 32 | Mitchell Green Founder & Managing Partner, Lead Edge Capital | 2.26 | 34 |
| 33 | Gustav Söderström Co-CEO, Spotify | 2.25 | 36 |
| 34 | John Arnold Co-Founder and Co-Chair, Arnold Ventures | 2.25 | 44 |
| 35 | Alex Carnell Co-Founder & CIO, Braidwell | 2.24 | 29 |
| 36 | Kareem Amin Co-founder & CEO, Clay | 2.22 | 18 |
| 37 | Martin Escobari Co-President, General Atlantic | 2.22 | 46 |
| 38 | Alex Sacerdote Founder & Portfolio Manager, Whale Rock Capital Management | 2.21 | 24 |
| 39 | Cliff Sosin Founder, CAS Investment Partners | 2.21 | 39 |
| 40 | Paul Tudor Jones Founder & CIO, Tudor Investment Corporation | 2.19 | 32 |
| 41 | Wolfgang Hammer Film Producer & Studio Founder | 2.18 | 22 |
| 42 | Vlad Barbalat Chief Investment Officer, Liberty Mutual Insurance | 2.17 | 23 |
| 43 | Neil Mehta Founder and Managing Partner, Greenoaks Capital | 2.17 | 35 |
| 44 | Luca Ferrari Co-Founder & CEO, Bending Spoons | 2.17 | 41 |
| 45 | Karim Atiyeh Co-founder & CTO, Ramp | 2.12 | 32 |
| 46 | David Senra Host, Founders Podcast | 2.07 | 28 |
| 47 | Michael Ovitz Chairman, Treville Capital Group | 2.06 | 33 |
| 48 | Mark Bertolini CEO, Oscar Health | 2.02 | 40 |
| 49 | Drew Taggart Co-Founder & General Partner, Mantis VC | 2 | 14 |
| 50 | Tom Deegan Co-Founder and President, Ladder | 2 | 9 |
| 51 | Jay Hoag Founding General Partner, TCV | 1.95 | 21 |
| 52 | Krishna Rao CFO, Anthropic | 1.95 | 42 |
| 53 | Jeff Horing Co-Founder and Managing Director, Insight Partners | 1.94 | 54 |
| 54 | John Zito Co-President, Apollo Asset Management | 1.89 | 44 |
| 55 | Kelly Granat Co-CIO & Managing Director, Lone Pine Capital | 1.89 | 36 |
| 56 | Gavin Uberti Co-Founder and CEO, Etched | 1.87 | 15 |
| 57 | Alan Waxman Co-Founder, CEO & Co-CIO, Sixth Street | 1.85 | 60 |
| 58 | Alex Pall Co-Founder & General Partner, Mantis VC | 1.83 | 12 |
| 59 | Dara Khosrowshahi CEO, Uber | 1.8 | 35 |
| 60 | Graham Weaver Founder & CEO, Alpine Investors | 1.79 | 39 |
| 61 | Henry Ellenbogen Founder & CIO, Durable Capital Partners | 1.79 | 33 |
| 62 | Daniel Schwartz Co-Managing Partner, 3G Capital | 1.67 | 18 |
| 63 | Alex Wiltschko Founder & CEO, Osmo | 1.52 | 29 |
| 64 | Caryn Seidman Becker Chairman & CEO, CLEAR | 1.51 | 39 |
| 65 | Alex Behring Co-Managing Partner, 3G Capital | 1.45 | 20 |
Companies
The most bearish calls
Debate potential is an AI score of how much a statement invites disagreement. Bearish counts tally what was said about a company on the show; they describe the conversation, not the company. Every count opens to the exact tape. full disclaimer →
All 142 companies, funds and products with at least one bearish claim on the record.
Highest debate potential, by year
2026
Modelers say AI safety action requires 50 to 100 million deaths
“What's so scary when I was at this conference, which is only about 35 or 40 people, with one modeler from the four biggest model companies, and when I was able to ask them pointedly,
How do you think that AI safety gets resolved?
The, pretty much the consens…”