The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI Has Net Destroyed Trillions in Application-Layer Value
“AI has net destroyed. Even if you count cursor cognition, the most successful AI natives, value has been, trillions of dollars of value has been destroyed by AI at the application layer.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 1:16:21 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cursor Forced Baseten, Fireworks, and Together to Prioritize Low Latency
“The challenge is, all those companies, you could take your pick, Base-Ten, Fireworks together, they all focus on low latency inference. And they were pulled in that direction by one very important customer Cursor.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 3:42 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Grok, Next-Gen Models, and Cursor Will Rapidly Hit $10B ARR
“Grok, 4.5, and Cursor, the sum of that probably hits a ten billion dollar ARR pretty quickly.”
Gavin Baker Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 1:13:05 Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wachen: AI agents will soon build complete web browsers in under an hour
“I thought it was really cool months ago when Cursor published that they had a bunch of coding agents build an entire browser from scratch in a week. Totally nuts. And that, that will soon happen in under an hour.”
Rob Wachen Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 47:52 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: AI coding assistant Cursor reached $1 billion in record time
“Cursor, which is ostensibly an IDE, like what's the biggest IDE before cursor? Like, I don't know, but it wasn't big. And it took probably like 12 or 15 years to get to that revenue level. And you know, they went over a billion dollars in revenue like in no ti…”
Ben Horowitz Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 8:30 Why The Laws of Startup Physics Have Changed | Ben Horowitz Interview · Invest Like The Best
Opinion
Roughly 99.9% of Cursor’s Massive Enterprise Adoption Is Driven Bottom-Up
“Look at Cursor, for example. It is used in every large company. I bet only maybe one percent of companies is maybe the top-down motion. 99.9% companies, some engineer got it.”
Gokul Rajaram Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 58:28 He Built The Revenue Engines for Google, Facebook & Square · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Patel: Cursor generates nearly $1 billion in annualized revenue
“Cursor has, like, I don't know, like, nearly a billion dollars of revenue now on a, if you do current month times 12.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 59:13 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Opinion
Zhang: Cognition and Cursor would anchor a five-company private AI portfolio
“I mentioned I'm close with the cognition guys, so cognition would be in there for sure. Cursor also I'm actually kind of interested in like where those might run into each other in the future.”
Jesse Zhang Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 1:05:14 The Future of AI Agents | Jesse Zhang Interview · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cursor's adoption will expand well beyond traditional software developers
“So I think you're going to see many more people using Cursor than just developers.”
Gustav Söderström May 20, 2025 ▶ 32:20 Spotify’s Journey To Profitability · Invest Like The Best
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