Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Invest Like the Best: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

760 assertions740 insights392 opinions365 disclosures330 predictions20 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Opinion
Losing TSMC Wouldn't Be Disastrous Because Intel Is Only 2x Behind
“And my contrarian take is that it wouldn't be that bad. Supply would take a shock for sure, but The best processes that we have in the West, like Intel, not that far behind, at worst, like maybe two X worst performance per watt. And the gap is just far smaller…”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 1:17:13 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wachen: AI agents will outnumber human knowledge workers by 2027
“I think this is the second to last year where a majority of the workforce is going to be human. I think in 20, 27, you're going to see there's going to be more agents doing knowledge work than humans, and it's going to be extremely interesting to see what happ…”
Rob Wachen Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 1:25:00 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 39:04 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Modelers say AI safety action requires 50 to 100 million deaths
“What's so scary when I was at this conference, which is only about 35 or 40 people, with one modeler from the four biggest model companies, and when I was able to ask them pointedly, How do you think that AI safety gets resolved? The, pretty much the consens…”
Paul Tudor Jones Apr 28, 2026 ▶ 25:22 Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones on AI Risk, Bubbles and Buffett · Invest Like The Best
Opinion
Diller: Hollywood has become irrelevant
“Hollywood is irrelevant.”
Barry Diller Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 52:31 How Barry Diller Built Entertainment Empires · Invest Like The Best
Opinion
Thompson: Apple's ATT Was One of Tech's Worst Antitrust Violations
“When Apple passed ATT, app tracking transparency was one of the most One of the worst antitrust violations in the history of technology, like, just Apple unilaterally obliterating all these business models while they're simultaneously building their own, as fa…”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 1:10:54 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Kushner: Kevin Hassett to become Trump's national economic advisor
“Kevin Hassett, who's on our team, is now going to become the national economic advisor for president Trump.”
Jared Kushner Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 49:37 Jared Kushner - The Mechanic · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Contradicted
Matt Smith: US built only one interstate gas pipeline in 10-12 years
“In the last 10 or 12 years, we've really built one interstate gas pipeline. That was Mountain Valley Pipeline connecting Appalachia to Mid-Atlantic.”
Matt Smith Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 19:46 Why Natural Gas Will Be AI’s Next Great Shortage · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Charles Kushner nominated as US Ambassador to France
“He just got nominated to be ambassador for France.”
Jared Kushner Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 2:18:48 Jared Kushner - The Mechanic · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Contradicted
Wachen: Only a few million people globally pay for AI model subscriptions
“We're very much in the early innings of AI today, where the paid plans, there's only a few million users in the world using paid plans of AI models.”
Rob Wachen Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 15:31 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best

Open predictions the full timeline →

109days Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year Gavin Baker · prediction date: 2026-12-31 130days Smith: Natural Gas Forward Curves Will Move Up Materially in Six Months Matt Smith · prediction date: 2027-01-21 222days Patel: Opus 4.6/4.7-level AI inference will be 100x cheaper in a year Dylan Patel · prediction date: 2027-04-23 339days Thompson: Intel will announce a major foundry customer within the year Ben Thompson · prediction date: 2027-08-18

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Caryn Seidman Becker 1 39 13 0 0 100%
John Arnold 1 44 10 0 0 100%
Sergey Levine 1 49 8 0 0 100%
Cliff Sosin 1 39 7 0 0 100%
Ben Thompson 1 37 7 0 0 100%
Brian Chesky 1 33 4 0 0 100%
Alan Waxman 2 60 10 1 0 91%
Dara Khosrowshahi 1 35 8 1 0 89%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“don't use things like we're a family. I treat you like my family. Okay. Which is like a little bit true, but not true enough. And instead we're a professional sports team and we all got to fight every…”

“But, but the thing people may not realize is the managers of the VC group at the large endowments have no incentive to try and right size this number. In fact, many of them are bonused on paper marks.…”

“All right, yeah, I mean, it is, it's a really interesting time because on the one hand, um, the Pax Americana that we kind of developed after 1945 and then refurbished in 1990 at the end of the Cold…”

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