The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 330 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 46 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wachen: AI agents will outnumber human knowledge workers by 2027
“I think this is the second to last year where a majority of the workforce is going to be human. I think in 20, 27, you're going to see there's going to be more agents doing knowledge work than humans, and it's going to be extremely interesting to see what happ…”
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Altman: Real AGI is very close and not that much longer away
“For the thing that, to me, feels like, you know,
Real AGI.
I think very close, like not that much longer.”
Kushner: Saudi-Israel normalization is inevitable and will happen
“I think over time it's inevitable. Again, I thought it would happen four years ago, but I'm pretty confident it will happen now that we'll have the Saudi Israel normalization, hopefully under president Trump. And I think that that will lead to a lot of the inn…”
Mead predicts China lacks the capacity to defeat the US geopolitically
“I don't think China has it in, in it to beat us.”
Vishria: AI will increase demand for radiologists via Jevons Paradox
“And so, I think, in the end, we're gonna end up with this application where AI really does help radiologists. It helps radiologists get more and more higher, higher throughput, because the AI can do some parts, and the radiologists do some parts, and they're c…”
Altman: Massive Inference Revenue Will Easily Fund Frontier Model Training
“We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be able to afford model training. Like, so much of our future compute plans Will be used to sell inference to customers that even if we can enjoy a modest…”
Altman: AI will create tons of jobs and keep people busier than wanted
“I'm actually not a jobs doomer at all. I think there were going to be tons of jobs. I think we'll be busier than we want, not the opposite of that, because I think people will have such creative wishes and such incredible ideas of what they ask AI to help buil…”
Altman: Robotics will have its 'ChatGPT moment' in two to three years
“It's not 20 years. I would say we get the ChatGPT moment for robotics in the next, like, two or three years.”
Smith: Bloom Energy will struggle to secure gas for 2GW+ deployments
“We don't think that Bloom Energy's assets at two gigawatts or more will be able to get natural gas in competition with all of the other assets that are being deployed that will consume gas, given the scarcity that we see.”
Wachen: The Largest Token Producer Will Be the World's Most Valuable Company
“Whoever produces the most tokens is going to be the most valuable company in the world.”
Wachen: AI inference will eventually make up the majority of global GDP
“I firmly believe we are on a global march of inference becoming majority of global GDP. And it may take more than 10 years, but it's going to happen.”
Baker: NVIDIA could sell $2T-$3T in GPUs in 2026-2027 if TSMC expanded enough
“If Taiwan Simi did what Jensen wanted, I think NVIDIA could sell two trillion dollars of GPUs. In 20, in 26 or 27. Maybe two and a half trillion. Maybe three trillion.”
Baker: Disaggregated inference will extend GPU lifespans to 10-15 years
“And the disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15 year lives.”
Chesky: Pure people managers will have no value in the future
“I don't think people managers will have any value in the future. What I mean people managers, people that only manage people. I think everyone's gonna have to be a hybrid people manager or manager IC.”
Chesky: Managers relying on recurring one-on-ones will not survive
“People who have lots of recurring one-on-ones are not going to survive.”
Chesky: Founder mode will be the only way to survive AI
“By the way, I think founder mode is going to be The only way to operate in the age of AI. If you're a giant professional CEO, I think you can operate in a founder mode, but if you're like, you know, risk averse, you want to be incremental, those types of peopl…”
Patel: Companies will lay off staff as Claude Code multiplies productivity
“I think other folks will start to reckon with the fact that, huh, If this person can do the work of five to 10 to 15 people using quad code, then all of a sudden I should probably cut people.”
Patel: Low-value SaaS startups will soon get priced out of tokens
“But the shitty SaaS startup and SF who is using Claude to generate, you know, their software product is not necessarily actually creating a ton of value, and therefore they're gonna get priced out of tokens soon enough.”
Patel: DRAM prices will double or triple from current levels
“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”
Patel: Large-scale protests against AI will occur within three months
“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”
Carnell: Low-dose GLP-1s will likely be appropriate for almost everyone
“I would argue in the future, we could talk about why GLP-ONE's might be appropriate for just about everyone. That's because the reality of it is, as you go from your adolescence to your fifties and sixties, On average, people are going to pick up about five BM…”
Mitchell Green: The AI CapEx bubble will end badly
“Overhyped, overfrothed and I believe this AI CapEx bubble will end badly.”
Mitchell Green predicts AI foundation models will commoditize
“Look, our fundament, my fundamental belief
Is that the models will commoditize.”
Inefficient legacy brands will be the primary beneficiaries of AI
“Like hot take here, I think like the biggest, fattest, most inefficient brands are even the best beneficiary of AI because brands have a massive moat and man, there's a lot of costs to cut there.”
China will likely realize it desperately needs Nvidia Blackwell by late 2026
“And then geopolitically, China thought they had the leverage. They're gonna realize, oh, whoopsie daisy, we do need the Blackwells. And unfortunately, they'll probably, for them they'll probably realize that in late 26.”
Nvidia Blackwell chips will likely reach China, revitalizing its open-source ecosystem
“If Blackwell comes back to China, which it seems like it probably will happen, that will also be very good because then Chinese open source will be back.”
Space-based data centers will dominate technology infrastructure within four years
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world, in this world, In the next three to four years is data centers in space.”
Space-based data centers will represent a majority of deployed megawatts within six years
“If Taiwan Simi opens up at the same time when, you know, data centers in space relieve all power constraints, but that's like, I don't know, five, six years away that data centers in space are a majority of deployed megawatts.”
Dan Wang: China will reach moon by 2030 while US may fail
“I think there's a pretty strong sense now that China will get to the moon by the end of the 20 twenties, and America might not be able to get back to the moon.”
Patel: Without AI Boom, US Would Lose Global Hegemony to China
“I think if we didn't have the AI boom, the U.S. Probably would be behind China and no longer the world hegemon by the end of the decade, if not sooner.”
Liemandt: Two-hour tablet learning will render six-hour traditional classrooms obsolete
“Once there's this tablet and it's two hours a day, what is your education system? Cause it's coming. How do we want our kids to spend their day? Right. And what does society want to say? This is where kids should spend their day because there's no point in hav…”
Gurley: Putting retail IRAs into 2-and-20 venture funds will increase fraud
“If we move to a world where, you know, the answer to getting the everyday consumer into high growth tech is to put their, you know, endowments, for one case, IRAs into, you know, these venture funds that are charging two and 20. I just think there's more obfus…”
Sosin: Someday people will compare Jeff Bezos to Carvana's Ernie Garcia
“Someday people will compare Jeff Bezos to Ernie Garcia, not the other way around.”
Kushner: Trump's policies will strengthen Mexico's economy if it collaborates
“I think that with what could happen with President Trump, I think that the things that he's focused on, which is figuring out how to curtail the migration and curtail the power of the cartels, I see that only as a net positive for Mexico over time. So I think …”
Kushner: DOGE will operate guerrilla-style and produce incredible long-term benefits
“I get the sense this will be much more guerrilla style. I think it's gonna be fascinating what it's gonna uncover, and I think the benefits to our country in the long term Will be incredible.”
Kushner: MBS will be seen as a great world leader for decades
“I think that when people see the depth and the range on what he is able to talk about and the way he thinks about things, I think people will realize that he's truly gonna be one of the great leaders of the world, I think, for the next 3040, 50 years, God will…”
Mead predicts a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could easily happen
“I mean, let's imagine China declares a blockade of Taiwan, which could very easily happen.”
Mead predicts remote work technology can extend American wealth generation
“Information technology appropriately deployed, can open up Enough, for another two generations, this wealth creating machine.”
Mead warns rapid technological change significantly raises great-power war risk
“So I think the rapid and dynamic technological change across a whole range of Disciplines and technologies is destabilizing the balance of power, and this, I think, does significantly increase the chance both of confrontation and ultimately even of war between…”
Mead predicts China will attempt a soft customs blockade of Taiwan
“And we see the Chinese, I think they're trying to get themselves into a position where they could have a soft blockade, where, like, they could give the orders that any ship that wants to go to Taiwan first has to stop at a Chinese port and go through a custom…”
Mead predicts America's domestic incoherence will inevitably undermine global stability
“Because America has been for so long and still, I think, remains the only potential pillar of global stability and organization, the internal incoherence of America faced with all of these changes can't help but undermine any chances of global stability.”
Mead warns the US must stop Iran or cede Middle East oil
“And I don't, you know, I think history doesn't give us a choice. We stop Iran ourselves, or Iran asserts and maintains hegemony over the oil resources in the Middle East.”
Future AI Agents Will Prioritize Long-Horizon Task Completion Over Speed
“You wanted more persistence, more long horizon tasks, and now it's, to me, very obvious that the future of agentic inference is long horizon tasks. You're gonna run the machine for hours or days at a time. It doesn't matter if it spits out tokens at a hundred …”
AI Workloads Will Eventually Shift to 90% Background and 10% Real-Time
“So long-term, I think, you know, we're going to end this year at maybe fifty-fifty background and real-time workloads, but I see this going to ninety-ten in favor of background.”
AI Scientific Research Costs Could Soon Drop to Tens of Dollars
“And we have actually started to bring it within view, a dollar cost for these long horizon tasks that is reasonable. It's not millions, it's thousands, and maybe it could be hundreds or even tens of dollars in the near future, too. Have a definitive answer to …”
Movva: Rival chipmakers will not replicate NVIDIA's NVLink quickly
“I think I'm not holding my breath for other companies broadly to figure out NVLink quickly. It's challenging technology to figure out. It's hard to scale. It's hard to productionize.”
Movva: Cerebras and Groq will serve as accelerators alongside traditional GPUs
“Cerebris and Grok and maybe a couple others, you should think of them as accelerators. What they are really good at is being used in conjunction with a more traditional GPU-like device that critically has this off-chip memory built in.”