The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Matt Smith (7)Gavin Baker (7)Dylan Patel (4)Dara Khosrowshahi (4)Rob Wachen (3)Scott Nolan (2)Neil Movva (2)Jared Kushner (2)Eric Vishria (2)David George (2)Dan Wang (2)Caryn Seidman Becker (2)
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Next up (21)
109 days left 2026-12-31
130 days left 2027-01-21
Smith: Natural Gas Forward Curves Will Move Up Materially in Six Months
“People are not really willing to look past summer heat or a slight outage in an LNG facility right now, but in six months, we start to see these companies roll forward to look at 28. In six months, you can start to see the forward curves really move up materia…”
222 days left 2027-04-23
339 days left 2027-08-18
Thompson: Intel will announce a major foundry customer within the year
“The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. And I expect at some point in the year that they're going to announce like some major partner for the first time. It's going to be a big deal, but it was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves.”
650 days left 2028-06-24
818 days left 2028-12-09
Smartphones will run pruned frontier AI models locally within three years
“In three years on a bigger and bulkier phone to fit the amount of DRAM necessary, you know, and the battery won't probably last as long. You will be able to probably run a pruned down version of something like Gemini five or GroK four, GroK 4.1, or, you know, …”
840 days left 2028-12-31
Smith: U.S. will start depleting gas storage in 2028 from AI and LNG
“Our work suggests that 26, 27 natural gas is, is appropriately supplied. But as we get into 28, and you plug in this compute, and you assign gas to very specific assets as they're plugged in as well, and you continue to export LNG as we're planning to do with …”
895 days left 2029-02-24
Sundheim: SpaceX Starlink Will Drastically Undercut Other Broadband Options Within Years
“I think that the cost, they've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time, like months, few years they are going to be dramatically cheaper than, Any other form of delivering broadband.”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Smith: U.S. gas storage will fall below historical minimums by 2029
“When you get to the middle of twenty-twenty-eight, We start to break very materially below in a historical way where gas available in storage has ever been before. And by 20, 29, we dropped below all known historical storage evidence.”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Vintage 2020 and 2021 alternative asset funds will deliver awful returns
“I think the venture growth ecosystem gets like a bad rap, but it's gonna be every alternative asset. Their 20 and 21 funds are gonna be awful relative to earlier funds because you had, you know, people thought they were gonna make, you know, a forex in, you kn…”
1359 days left 2030-06-03
Khosrowshahi: Traditional OEMs will scale L4 AV manufacturing in 2-4 years
“So I think you'll see the traditional players get there over the next, you know, two to four years, and they'll start, you know, right now the cars are being manufactured in the hundreds and the thousands. It'll get to the tens of thousands. It'll get to the h…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1913 days left 2031-12-09
Space-based data centers will represent a majority of deployed megawatts within six years
“If Taiwan Simi opens up at the same time when, you know, data centers in space relieve all power constraints, but that's like, I don't know, five, six years away that data centers in space are a majority of deployed megawatts.”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
Smith: NextEra yieldco will see a profit windfall by the 2030s
“XPLR, tickers XIFR, formerly Nextera Yulco, which is an interesting, interesting set of assets. They have a windfall coming in the latter part of the decade, in early 20 thirties, Ceteris Peribus, because they mark their PPAs to market at much higher values wi…”
2455 days left 2033-06-03
3192 days left 2035-06-10
3220 days left 2035-07-08
3473 days left 2036-03-17
3501 days left 2036-04-14
Nolan: SMRs will find their niche powering data centers behind the meter
“And so if gigawatt scale is for the grid and megawatt scale is for remote communities or, you know, government installations, then the middle scale, I think is going to find its niche behind the meter with data centers over the next five to 10 years.”
3537 days left 2036-05-20
Closed calls (23) the full record →
Vishria: AI will yield an oligopoly and multiple $100B specialized winners
“So it's just, it feels to me like we're gonna end up with an oligopoly Of winners, and there will be, I really believe they will be these, like, hundred billion dollar crazy smaller winners and so, like, that's, you know, that's, like, that just feels like tha…”
Matt Smith: US LNG exports scheduled to hit 35 BCF daily by 2030
“As of today, we're scheduled to export up to 35 BCF a day by the end of 2030. And in that case, the dye has been mostly cast.”
Patel: AI Models Will Monetize by Taking a Cut on User Purchases
“The models are going to purchase for you, right? They're going to do actions for you and the model, and then the company that does those actions for you, the model that will be able to take some sort of take rate, right? Even if it's like .1%, even if it's one…”
Liemandt: AI-native companies will dwarf historical SaaS valuations
“AI native companies are going to be worth more than any SAS company ever has been.”
Consumer tech products will increasingly tier pricing based on AI inference volume
“It's very likely that some consumers are going to want tons and tons of inference. And because that's a marginal cost, you're probably going to have to pay somehow for that as a consumer. So I think you're going to see more tiering of consumer products based o…”
Wachen: Giant AI models will serve billions of users in a few years
“A few years from now, there's going to be giant models serving billions of users.”
Patel: Incremental memory fab capacity will not arrive until late 2027 or 2028
“Even if they wanted to build as fast as possible, it doesn't come till 28 early, late 27 at best.”
xAI will release the first frontier model trained on Nvidia Blackwell
“One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early, I think the first Blackwell model will come from XAI. And the reason for that is just, it's a, According to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.”
AI pre-training scaling laws will continue for at least one more generation
“And we now know they're going to continue for pre-training for at least one more generation, and we're very early in the two new scaling laws, you know, for post-training, mid-training, RLVR, whatever people want to call it, and then test time computed inferen…”
xAI will provide the intelligence module for Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots
“XAI, Will be the intelligence module for Optimus made by Tesla with Tesla vision has its, you know, perception system.”
Patel: xAI Will Build Biggest Data Center but Trail Big Tech Compute
“XAI can get to the next stage of compute. They won't have more compute than OpenAI. They won't have more compute than any individual company at Google, Meta, et cetera, but they will have the biggest individual data center”
Patel: Robotics few-shot learning breakthroughs will arrive in 6 to 18 months
“And so I think in the next six to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few shot learning, i.e. There's a pre-trained robot model, and now there's a robot that you have hired or bought or whatever. You showed a few examples a…”
Carnell: Upcoming data will show GLP-1s protect against addictive behaviors
“In terms of the addiction data that'll start coming out over the next year or so, you would lose that benefit. Like you would lose the, essentially the free gift of protecting yourself from being addicted to drugs, alcohol, or gambling. And that comes from the…”
AI Tools Like Claude Will Soon Review Code Before Human Commits
“You're going to soon see the plot code, codex, and other tools actually review the code itself before engineers commit.”
Khosrowshahi expects Uber robotaxi pilots in London by year-end
“And I think we will have pilots, for example, in London before the end of the year.”
Liemandt: Alpha will launch a homeschool product delivering 2x learning next year
“And so I believe next year we will have a homeschool version that somebody will be able to buy. The kids can be able to sit down and deliver two X in two hours for sure.”
Patel: Hyperscalers will pause buybacks to reinvest in AI CapEx
“They're gonna, those companies aren't gonna do buybacks ever fucking again, right? Or not, like, ever again, but for a while. Because, like, they have way more, they think there's better ROI for their capital now.”
Patel: Large-scale protests against AI will occur within three months
“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”
Gurley predicts 4-5 consumer AI companion startups will emerge within a year
“It's not That difficult for me to imagine exactly what played out in her, which was an unbelievable movie for its time, by the way. But like, I think that will happen. Like, I would be shocked if you don't see four or five companies pop up in the next year.”
Wang: Half of cars sold in China will be electric in 2025
“At this point, by the end of this year, one out of every two cars sold in China will be electric”
Patel: OpenAI ARR Will Reach $20 Billion by Year-End
“Your revenue is like fifteen billion ARR this month, maybe, right, on a run rate basis. It'll get to 20 by the end of the year pretty, pretty clearly. Maybe it's like 16 now, but how do you pay three hundred billion dollars of revenue?”