Vintage 2020 and 2021 alternative asset funds will deliver awful returns
Mitchell Green · Why Now is the Best Time to Buy Public Software Companies · Invest Like The Best · Mar 24, 2026 · at 13:15
Mitchell Green, founder of Lead Edge Capital, discusses how multiple contraction will hurt fund returns across private equity, venture, and other alternatives.
0:00 / 0:25exact quote · 25.5s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“I think the venture growth ecosystem gets like a bad rap, but it's gonna be every alternative asset. Their 20 and 21 funds are gonna be awful relative to earlier funds because you had, you know, people thought they were gonna make, you know, a forex in, you know, in, in two years, and are instead making a 1.6 x in eight years. And so, like, that's gonna drive, that's gonna have huge impacts on the industry.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Mitchell Green
Mitchell Green: Assuming 20x-25x exit multiples for AI deals is insanity
“I think how they're going to get in trouble today and all this AI stuff is they just assume the exit multiple is 20 to 25 times. That's insanity.”
Mitchell Green: Investing in OpenAI at a $100B valuation is 'a little insane'
“And I think investing in open AI, a hundred billion is a little insane personally, but like, I don't know if it goes on to do like a trillion dollars of earnings. Yeah. I was going to be very wrong. I should have invested.”
Mitchell Green: Overlevered PE-Owned Software Assets Are Ripe for Disruption
“I worry that a bunch of these private equity owned assets that are over levered are ripe for disruption versus like independent software companies that are focused on growth, that are trying to innovate.”
Mitchell Green: The AI CapEx bubble will end badly
“Overhyped, overfrothed and I believe this AI CapEx bubble will end badly.”
Mitchell Green predicts AI foundation models will commoditize
“Look, our fundament, my fundamental belief
Is that the models will commoditize.”
Good growth businesses have cumulative historical cash burn below current revenue
“We're looking for, like, this one-to-one ratio. In a world where capital is a commodity, if you can build a business that's growing nicely while burning less than your, well, burning less than your revenues, you've got a pretty good business.”