Disclosure
Khosrowshahi: Uber meters headcount increases as AI makes engineers far more productive
“We are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting Much more efficient. Their throughput is increasing. They're becoming superhuman in terms of their output. We, you know, one, there's a cost to that and it's a signif…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Autonomous vehicles will have multiple winners, not a single monopoly
“You know, just like you're seeing in the foundation model space, there isn't going to be a single winner. There are going to be many players on the foundation models. There'll be open source, smaller models as well. We're seeing the same kind of acceleration i…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta increased human Uber driver earnings
“Now drivers in Austin and Atlanta, where we have two big partnerships with Waymo, Drivers on the Uber platform, they're making more money. The number of drivers joining the platform is increasing because it looks like AVs are actually adding incremental demand…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Khosrowshahi: Traditional OEMs will scale L4 AV manufacturing in 2-4 years
“So I think you'll see the traditional players get there over the next, you know, two to four years, and they'll start, you know, right now the cars are being manufactured in the hundreds and the thousands. It'll get to the tens of thousands. It'll get to the h…”
Opinion
Khosrowshahi: Chinese manufacturing quality and cost are unrivaled
“The Chinese capabilities in terms of manufacturing, both in terms of quality and cost at this point is unrivaled.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Food and grocery drone delivery will scale in 2-5 years
“And I think drones for food and other grocery are going to start hitting real scale over the next two to five years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Uber developers in India drive 10x more code commits using AI
“We've got devs in India who all of a sudden are driving 10 X the code commits that they used to. They're using autonomous agents all over the place.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Uber exhausted its annual AI compute budget in one quarter
“We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, you know, for the whole year, essentially.”
Disclosure
Khosrowshahi: Uber prototypes with frontier AI models but scales on open source
“We're using the more expensive models to explore. Hey, let's try a new interaction here. And obviously You know, the, these frontier models, whether it's a open AI model or a cloud model, they really are terrific. And they're great to experiment against. Once …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Autonomous vehicles on Uber's network are 30% busier than standalone AVs
“And what we're seeing is consumers love the product and AVs that are on our network Are 30% or more busy than, let's say, one P AVs who aren't using our network.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: AV transportation will blend direct competition and platform partnerships
“I don't think it's going to be black or white, which is, do we only compete or do we only work together? We think there's going to be an amalgamation of business models. There already is in travel. There already is in food. Same, same thing will happen in tran…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Khosrowshahi: Lucid and Nuro's midsize autonomous vehicle will cost $60,000 to $70,000
“You know, we think the Lucid midsize that they are building for us and Neuro together, it'll be a 60, 70,000 dollar car.”
Prediction Held up
Khosrowshahi expects Uber robotaxi pilots in London by year-end
“And I think we will have pilots, for example, in London before the end of the year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Uber One is solidly profitable despite first-year member losses
“The membership program took some time to kind of get up to speed. It is solidly profitable now, but the first year of membership is a year where we lose money on you, but we're going to make money on you two, three, four years from now.”
Disclosure
Khosrowshahi: Uber passes most Expedia deal economics to Uber One members
“We happened to make a deal with Expedia, my old company, and we're essentially giving the vast majority of the economics of that deal back to Uber One members.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2033
Khosrowshahi: Apps will still exist in seven years for visual communication
“I think you're gonna have apps, because there are certain circumstances, many circumstances, where the communication back to you is much more efficient in the written word or in pictures.”
Disclosure
Khosrowshahi: Uber will commit capital to tens of thousands of AVs
“Today, our priorities are going to be keep building the services that we're building now invest in algorithms, invest in more engineers we are hiring, and then really invest in kind of the new realities of AV, whether it's investments in our partners or it's m…”
Insight
Khosrowshahi: Uber pairs deterministic digital interactions with probabilistic real-world outcomes
“What's different about Uber than many other companies is, like, we don't just exist in the digital sphere, right? Our experiences encompass digital first in terms of your interaction with our platform, But then they are delivered or fulfilled in the real world…”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Uber generates over $10B in free cash flow across 10B+ trips
“We've got over ten billion dollars in, in free cashflow, which is great. But it's on well over ten billion trips a year. So these are, we are not a high margin business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Uber predicts passenger destinations 75% of the time
“And today we can guess when you take an Uber ride three quarters of the time, we can guess where you're going and it's just a one tap interaction that can only improve based on these larger models.”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Uber has over 30 autonomous vehicle partnerships
“So we've got over 30 partnerships now with incredible partners like a Waymo to a Neuro and Lucid to an NVIDIA that is building not just compute and sensors, but also a software driver now to companies like Wabi and Wave, WeRides of the World, Pony AIs of the W…”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Uber secured a $1B fleet financing facility with Santander
“We just announced a billion dollar financing line with Santander for EV fleets and AV fleets.”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: 13% of Uber Eats bookings come from the mobility app
“When you open your mobility app now on, on Uber, you're going to see Eats right there, and about 13% of Eats bookings are actually coming from the mobility business.”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Uber One has 50M members, growing 50% year-over-year
“And then we have our Uber One membership program, fifty million members now, growing 50% year on year.”
Dara Khosrowshahi