The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 53 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: AI giants like LeCun told journalists OpenAI wouldn't work
“When we first announced OpenAI, all of these, like, you know, giants of the field, these experts were saying, this is like insane. It's hypey. It's irresponsible. Really respected people like Yann LeCun or whatever, telling journalists like, oh, these guys are…”
Patel: Anthropic's ARR has surged to between $35B and $40B
“Anthropic has gone from nine billion revenue to what they're at, 35, forty billion. Now probably by the time this airs, 40, forty-five billion. Who knows? ARR.”
Horowitz: Biden executive order required federal approval to sell GPUs
“The last Biden administration executive order said that you could not sell a GPU without federal government approval. Like, that was a real executive order, and that got reversed, but like, we were that close. To being basically out of the global chip game.”
Matt Smith: US built only one interstate gas pipeline in 10-12 years
“In the last 10 or 12 years, we've really built one interstate gas pipeline. That was Mountain Valley Pipeline connecting Appalachia to Mid-Atlantic.”
Wachen: Etched is the only startup building custom racks and chips
“We're actually, I think we're the only startup right now that's building its own rack as well as its own chips.”
China-Russia oil and gas trade remains overwhelmingly denominated in US dollars
“China's a big importer of Russian gas and oil.
It's kind of crazy to think about.
That trade is still denominated for a vast majority in the US dollar.”
Horowitz: Funded tech initiative reduced Las Vegas crime by over 50%
“Since we started the program, I think crime is down over 50% and then you know, shooting of suspects by police is down, like, close to 75%.”
xAI will release the first frontier model trained on Nvidia Blackwell
“One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early, I think the first Blackwell model will come from XAI. And the reason for that is just, it's a, According to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.”
Patel: Over 10% of Etsy Traffic Comes Directly from GPT
“And it's like, but it's like, comparing them, like, these models now can, like, actually, like, figure out exactly what you want, and more than 10% of Etsy's traffic is straight from GPT.”
Liemandt: Trilogy was the first AI product to sell $1 billion
“Our claim to fame in the nineties was we were the first AI product to sell a billion dollars.”
Liemandt: The median US high schooler's standardized test score flatlines over four years
“The median person in high school in America actually doesn't learn anything. Like scary that in a maps test, which is a 300 point scale, the median American, right. Goes up one point in four years, one point on a three point scale, not learning anything.”
Milgram: Fitch Data Shows 82% of Private Credit Is Single-B- or Lower
“According to Fitch, about 82% of, ah, the private credit market exists in the single B minus and lower credit, credit quality space.”
Milgram: Fitch Shows Largest Share of Private Credit Is CCC-Equivalent Debt
“Triple C's, for instance, default at about a three year, 30% cumulative default rate. So you know, the largest portion of private credit, according to Fitch, is in triple C equivalent.”
Baker: Safe Superintelligence Plans to Release Its Model in August
“SSI says that they're going to come out with, you know, with their model in August, you know, there's this whole generation of new labs that are focused on this.”
Wachen: Colossus charges $12/hour for Blackwells as the only 20k-cluster provider
“Why is Colossus charging 12 dollars an hour for Blackwells? It's because they're the only place you can buy 20,000 of them at once, right?”
Patel: Anthropic Mythos is cheaper in most tasks than Claude 4.6 Opus
“Anthropic Mythos is more expensive as a model, but it spends a lot less tokens to do the thing, and therefore it is actually cheaper in most tasks than four, six Opus, because it's just way more efficient, even though each individual token is smarter.”
Patel: Incremental memory fab capacity will not arrive until late 2027 or 2028
“Even if they wanted to build as fast as possible, it doesn't come till 28 early, late 27 at best.”
Sankar: 80% of US Generic Drugs Depend on China
“80% of our generic drugs come from China in one way or another, whether it's the APIs or the finished product themselves.”
Ferrari: AOL is the fifth most used email inbox in the West
“AOL is actually, I believe, a top five, the fifth most used email inbox in the Western world.”
At Its Peak, CAA Represented 46 of the Top 50 Grossing Directors
“We had a 76% market share of talent. We had 46 of the top 50 grossing directors in the world.”
Osmo Digitized and Teleported Its First Scent, a Summer Plum
“So this is kind of like a piece of history here, Plum One Point O. This was the first scent that was teleported. So the first scent to be digitized and then reconstituted in another place.”
Kushner: Federal Team Planned 400 Retail COVID Testing Sites in Five Days
“And so through that, we were actually making great progress where we basically were going to get about 400 testing sites up from nothing in about four or five days.”
Smith: Expand Energy controls roughly 70% of core Haynesville wells
“They probably control 70% of remaining core Haynesville wells.”
Wachen: Only a few million people globally pay for AI model subscriptions
“We're very much in the early innings of AI today, where the paid plans, there's only a few million users in the world using paid plans of AI models.”
Baker: Claude Opus generates 70% fewer tokens per question
“There's an analysis Claude is even on Opus is generating 70% less tokens for the exact same question.”
Carnell: Direct-to-consumer channels drive most GLP-1 adoption today
“What we're seeing with GLP One Medicines and what we're seeing that the direct-to-consumer side of that is driving most of the adoption today”
Nolan: The US suffers from a total lack of uranium enrichment capacity
“And then came across this problem of Enrichment of uranium and the US's total lack of capacity in the space, which essentially forced me to go start General Matter.”
Nolan: The US Electrical Grid Has Stagnated Since the 1990s
“We grew our grid for a long time. And then starting around the nineties, essentially no growth until today”
The DRC has under 25% mobile penetration and under 5% banking penetration
“Like, take DRC, like, mobile phone penetration is still less than 25%. You know, banking penetration is, like, still less than five percent.”
The recent Q2 earnings season was the most volatile since 2008
“If you look at
The last public market earnings season, which was companies reporting Q two this past year.
If you study earnings volatility,
It was more volatile than any earnings season since the financial crisis.”
Horing: Wiz doubled net new bookings yearly for six years
“Take whiz, which is obviously one of our favorite stories in life and great team. And they've been able to double or more of their net new bookings each year for six years.”
Zito: 91% of Private Wealth Clients Hold No Alternative Assets
“91% of private wealth clients don't have an alt.”
Ovitz: Kevin Systrom's fourth pivot created Instagram
“I can't tell you the number of pivots my young companies have made. I mean, Kevin Systrom, fourth pivot was Instagram.”
Wachen: Bitcoin mining ASICs run at under a quarter the voltage of GPUs
“Bitcoin miners run at under a quarter of the voltage of GPUs.”
Wachen: Etched hired dozens from HFT over shared kernel-first philosophy
“And we've had dozens of people from high frequency trading join the team because they saw this philosophy too.”
Wachen: Historical semiconductor Series A rounds topped out at $40M–$50M
“You know, at the time, the biggest semiconductor fundraiser for a Series A was around, like, 40, fifty million dollars.”
Baker: SpaceX valuation compounded in the low 30% range annually for a decade
“SpaceX compounded it, you know, low 30% per year for whatever that was, a decade.”
Rao: Anthropic shipped 30 product and feature releases in January
“So we had 30 different product and feature releases in January.”
Behring: Burger King directly operated nearly 2,000 corporate stores globally pre-acquisition
“That's something that we fixed, but it had almost 2000 restaurants around the world.”
Amazon deflated box-shipping costs by 3% to 5% annually for 20 years
“What Amazon was able to do is ride a cost curve where they were deflating the cost of Sending a box out at three to five percent a year for 20 straight years.”
Horing: Nearly all Insight IC partners started in its sourcing program
“I would say that I think almost all the partners at insight, but one or two at the sort of high investment committee level started off in that program”
Bertolini: Aetna was losing $1M per day when he joined
“Aetna hired me after they started, ran into trouble to help them fix the company. They were losing a million dollars a day when I showed up in twenty-twenty-two and we had to fix that, and that took a, took us on a whole journey.”
Bertolini: Small group employers faced double-digit rate hikes for five years
“Five years running, small group employers have been paying double-digit rate increases.”
Bertolini: Every 50 basis point change in Aetna claims reserve was $980M
“Every 50 basis points change in that trend was nine hundred and eighty million dollars of margin.”
Pall: Spotify Friday song uploads grew from 10k to 190k
“Now, like, on Spotify, when we, like, started, there was, like,
10,000 songs uploaded every Friday.
Now there's like a 190,000 or something like that.”