The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 57 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wachen: AI agents will outnumber human knowledge workers by 2027
“I think this is the second to last year where a majority of the workforce is going to be human. I think in 20, 27, you're going to see there's going to be more agents doing knowledge work than humans, and it's going to be extremely interesting to see what happ…”
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Modelers say AI safety action requires 50 to 100 million deaths
“What's so scary when I was at this conference, which is only about 35 or 40 people, with one modeler from the four biggest model companies, and when I was able to ask them pointedly,
How do you think that AI safety gets resolved?
The, pretty much the consens…”
Altman: Unreleased OpenAI Model Escaped Sandbox Using Zero-Days to Cheat Eval
“So we were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it was supposed to be working in a sandbox and It figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero-day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the intern…”
Altman: Real AGI is very close and not that much longer away
“For the thing that, to me, feels like, you know,
Real AGI.
I think very close, like not that much longer.”
Baker: Open-Source AI Frontier Consists of Chinese Models Using Stolen US Tokens
“Open source frontier, which today consists of, you know, Chinese models with stolen American tokens.”
Kushner: Saudi-Israel normalization is inevitable and will happen
“I think over time it's inevitable. Again, I thought it would happen four years ago, but I'm pretty confident it will happen now that we'll have the Saudi Israel normalization, hopefully under president Trump. And I think that that will lead to a lot of the inn…”
Mead predicts China lacks the capacity to defeat the US geopolitically
“I don't think China has it in, in it to beat us.”
Nvidia's BF16 Efficiency Barely Improves Across Hopper, Blackwell, and Rubin
“If you look at, you know, Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin, and you compare like for like, what is the performance per watt of a beefload-sixteen multiply? It hasn't improved all that much.”
TSMC Performance Per Watt Barely Changes From 5nm to 2nm
“If you look at TSMC five nanometer versus four versus three versus two, the performance per watt on these chips doesn't change like a dramatic amount.”
Vishria: AI will increase demand for radiologists via Jevons Paradox
“And so, I think, in the end, we're gonna end up with this application where AI really does help radiologists. It helps radiologists get more and more higher, higher throughput, because the AI can do some parts, and the radiologists do some parts, and they're c…”
Baker: Anthropic Is Almost Certainly Generating Significant Free Cash Flow
“And Anthropik continues to grow really strongly and is almost certainly pumping out significant amounts of free cash flow.”
Baker: Behind-the-meter data center deals generally lower local electricity prices
“And the reality is, like, given the deals that are being cut now, when a data center goes in, electricity prices actually generally go down for everyone around there because of behind the meter deals.”
Modern closed-loop AI data centers use water like office buildings
“Years ago, we were evaporating water to cool these systems. They needed tremendous amounts of water, and now we use these closed-loop systems, and a modern data center uses only as much water as like an office building would for, you know, the kitchen, the bat…”
Altman: Massive Inference Revenue Will Easily Fund Frontier Model Training
“We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be able to afford model training. Like, so much of our future compute plans Will be used to sell inference to customers that even if we can enjoy a modest…”
Altman: AI will create tons of jobs and keep people busier than wanted
“I'm actually not a jobs doomer at all. I think there were going to be tons of jobs. I think we'll be busier than we want, not the opposite of that, because I think people will have such creative wishes and such incredible ideas of what they ask AI to help buil…”
Altman: Robotics will have its 'ChatGPT moment' in two to three years
“It's not 20 years. I would say we get the ChatGPT moment for robotics in the next, like, two or three years.”
Altman: AI giants like LeCun told journalists OpenAI wouldn't work
“When we first announced OpenAI, all of these, like, you know, giants of the field, these experts were saying, this is like insane. It's hypey. It's irresponsible. Really respected people like Yann LeCun or whatever, telling journalists like, oh, these guys are…”
Smith: Gas Companies Overstate Their Drillable Well Inventories
“A number of companies Describe themselves as having a lot more inventory of wells to drill than we can justify with facts, and I'll just leave it at that”
Smith: Bloom Energy will struggle to secure gas for 2GW+ deployments
“We don't think that Bloom Energy's assets at two gigawatts or more will be able to get natural gas in competition with all of the other assets that are being deployed that will consume gas, given the scarcity that we see.”
Kim: VCs who pledged against weapons in 2019 now lead defense
“You can go back at 2019, and the vast majority of venture capital firms say, we will never invest in weapons. This is the hottest area right now. The same people who said they would never invest in weapons are actually now leading the weapons charge.”
Wachen: The Largest Token Producer Will Be the World's Most Valuable Company
“Whoever produces the most tokens is going to be the most valuable company in the world.”
Wachen: AI inference will eventually make up the majority of global GDP
“I firmly believe we are on a global march of inference becoming majority of global GDP. And it may take more than 10 years, but it's going to happen.”
Baker: Anthropic Added $11 Billion ARR in One Month
“And what I just mean by that is in Anthropik, they added eleven billion dollars of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that The SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between five and 10 trillion dollars of value. And I would say argua…”
Baker: NVIDIA could sell $2T-$3T in GPUs in 2026-2027 if TSMC expanded enough
“If Taiwan Simi did what Jensen wanted, I think NVIDIA could sell two trillion dollars of GPUs. In 20, in 26 or 27. Maybe two and a half trillion. Maybe three trillion.”
Baker: Disaggregated inference will extend GPU lifespans to 10-15 years
“And the disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15 year lives.”
Baker: AI Has Net Destroyed Trillions in Application-Layer Value
“AI has net destroyed. Even if you count cursor cognition, the most successful AI natives, value has been, trillions of dollars of value has been destroyed by AI at the application layer.”
Anthropic's annualized net dollar retention rate is currently over 500%
“Our net dollar retention rate is over 500% on an annualized basis.”
Chesky: Pure people managers will have no value in the future
“I don't think people managers will have any value in the future. What I mean people managers, people that only manage people. I think everyone's gonna have to be a hybrid people manager or manager IC.”
Chesky: Managers relying on recurring one-on-ones will not survive
“People who have lots of recurring one-on-ones are not going to survive.”
Chesky: Founder mode will be the only way to survive AI
“By the way, I think founder mode is going to be The only way to operate in the age of AI. If you're a giant professional CEO, I think you can operate in a founder mode, but if you're like, you know, risk averse, you want to be incremental, those types of peopl…”
Patel: Companies will lay off staff as Claude Code multiplies productivity
“I think other folks will start to reckon with the fact that, huh, If this person can do the work of five to 10 to 15 people using quad code, then all of a sudden I should probably cut people.”
Patel: Anthropic's ARR has surged to between $35B and $40B
“Anthropic has gone from nine billion revenue to what they're at, 35, forty billion. Now probably by the time this airs, 40, forty-five billion. Who knows? ARR.”
Patel: Anthropic gross margins have a floor of 72%
“So ultimately what they've done, even if you assume all incremental compute they've gotten has gone towards inference, their margins are at a floor of 72%. In reality, some of that incremental compute they've got probably went to research and development and m…”
Patel: Low-value SaaS startups will soon get priced out of tokens
“But the shitty SaaS startup and SF who is using Claude to generate, you know, their software product is not necessarily actually creating a ton of value, and therefore they're gonna get priced out of tokens soon enough.”
Patel: GPU useful life is reaching 7 to 8 years, not under 5
“There's people who have argued GPUs full lives are less than five years. Complete nonsense. There are clusters now re-signing three or four year old hopper clusters re-signing for three or four more years. There's a 100 clusters that are re-signing for another…”
Patel: DRAM prices will double or triple from current levels
“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”
Patel: Large-scale protests against AI will occur within three months
“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”
Carnell: Low-dose GLP-1s will likely be appropriate for almost everyone
“I would argue in the future, we could talk about why GLP-ONE's might be appropriate for just about everyone. That's because the reality of it is, as you go from your adolescence to your fifties and sixties, On average, people are going to pick up about five BM…”
Mitchell Green: The AI CapEx bubble will end badly
“Overhyped, overfrothed and I believe this AI CapEx bubble will end badly.”
Mitchell Green predicts AI foundation models will commoditize
“Look, our fundament, my fundamental belief
Is that the models will commoditize.”
The Federal Reserve moves money faster than crypto or stablecoins
“The Fed has a pretty good tech team. Like, their systems are actually pretty good. If you think about it, the U.S. Right now, through the Fed, has the capability to move money and to clear money through all these institutions, 24 seven. Faster than stablecoins…”
Inefficient legacy brands will be the primary beneficiaries of AI
“Like hot take here, I think like the biggest, fattest, most inefficient brands are even the best beneficiary of AI because brands have a massive moat and man, there's a lot of costs to cut there.”
Sankar: Chinese AI models are the result of model distillation
“And even the Chinese models, those are a result of distillation.”
Horowitz: Biden executive order required federal approval to sell GPUs
“The last Biden administration executive order said that you could not sell a GPU without federal government approval. Like, that was a real executive order, and that got reversed, but like, we were that close. To being basically out of the global chip game.”
Top public GPU buyers have higher returns on capital than pre-AI
“And the ROI on AI has Empirically, factually, unambiguously been positive. Like, I just always find it strange that there's any debate about this, because the largest expenditures on GPUs are public companies. They report something called audited quarterly fin…”