The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Losing TSMC Wouldn't Be Disastrous Because Intel Is Only 2x Behind
“And my contrarian take is that it wouldn't be that bad. Supply would take a shock for sure, but The best processes that we have in the West, like Intel, not that far behind, at worst, like maybe two X worst performance per watt. And the gap is just far smaller…”
TSMC is making a mistake by expanding manufacturing capacity too slowly
“Taiwan Semi is not expanding capacity as fast as their customers want. And I think this is actually a pretty big, this, they're in the process of making a mistake just because, you know, you do have Intel and with these fabs, they're not as good and it's reall…”
Intel's board was shameful to fire Pat Gelsinger over his necessary strategy
“Patrick Helsinger, I think was also a good executive, and he put Intel on the only strategy that could result in success, and I actually think it's shameful that the Intel board fired him when they did it.”
Dan Wang: America's apex manufacturers like Boeing, Intel, Tesla are going downhill
“But if we take a look at many of America's apex manufacturers, companies like Boeing making aviation, Intel making chips, Detroit and Tesla making vehicles, mostly that's been going downhill.”
Thompson: Intel will announce a major foundry customer within the year
“The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. And I expect at some point in the year that they're going to announce like some major partner for the first time. It's going to be a big deal, but it was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves.”
SpaceX and Tesla's TerraFab Domestic Semiconductor Joint Venture Will Succeed
“The Turfab, it's a SpaceX, I believe Tesla's involved as well joint venture to build the world's largest fab here in America, and I'm, I think they're going to be successful.”
Baker: Intel or Samsung will break discipline in the semiconductor foundry market
“One of Intel and Samsung, they're not going to stay disciplined. They will break, and then at some level that will force everyone else to break.”
Severe compute shortages will eventually force the industry to fill Intel's fabs
“Intel has all these empty fabs, and eventually, Given the shortages we have of compute, those fabs are going to be filled.”
Patel: Intel Fell Behind Due to Poor Internal Fab Data Sharing
“Like, I think part of the reason Intel's behind is also that, ah, data sharing internally was terrible. And just within the FAP. The lithography team doesn't want to share their data with the etch team, And they can't use, and that data can't leave the fab and…”
Thompson: Massive compute demand solves TSMC dependence by funding alternative foundries
“The way to solve the geopolitical problem of Dependence on TSMC is to come up with a compute use case that is so massive that everyone is economically incentivized to bring other people up to speed. And then we get the sort of geopolitical insurance for free.”
Zito: Apollo will lead mega AI data center financing after Intel deal
“There's not, frankly, there's only a few investors that can Finance them with matched liabilities at the scale, and we're fortunate to be one of them. I think we'll be a leader in that. Intel was just the start of that.”
Baker: Alternative Foundries Would Improve Rapidly if NVIDIA or AMD Used Them
“The reality is like if a company like Nvidia or AMD were to ever really, really use one of these other foundries, that foundry would get better really quickly.”
Horowitz: Industry Leaders Bear the Sole Responsibility to Expand Markets
“If you're the leader in the industry, then the growth of the industry is dependent on you. Like you, it's up to you to expand the market. Like, nobody else is gonna do it.”
Zito: Apollo Structured an $11B, 30+ Year Protected Deal for Intel
“How do you take a deal for like an Intel, eleven billion dollar deal for Intel and structure it in a way that's North of 30 years, really equity type capital, but where we feel like it's more debt side protected, you have to have some creativity to do that. Ca…”
Zito: Apollo Has Executed Financing Deals for Intel, BP, and Air France
“And you look now we've done deals for BP, Air France, Venovia, Intel. The pipeline there is very large because people are realizing that they can get, well, first off, if you have a hundred billion dollars of debt and you're an investment grade company, doing …”