The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Anthropic partners with SpaceX for compute at Colossus facility in Memphis
“We announced a partnership with SpaceX for their Colossus facility in Memphis. We're really excited about that. It's gonna allow us to continue to expand, especially on the consumer and prosumer side.”
Baker: SpaceX deployed more compute faster and cheaper than anyone over 3 years
“They've shown over the last three years, they can bring on more compute faster than anyone at lower prices.”
Baker: Grok, Next-Gen Models, and Cursor Will Rapidly Hit $10B ARR
“Grok, 4.5, and Cursor, the sum of that probably hits a ten billion dollar ARR pretty quickly.”
SpaceX and Tesla's TerraFab Domestic Semiconductor Joint Venture Will Succeed
“The Turfab, it's a SpaceX, I believe Tesla's involved as well joint venture to build the world's largest fab here in America, and I'm, I think they're going to be successful.”
Sundheim: SpaceX Starlink Will Drastically Undercut Other Broadband Options Within Years
“I think that the cost, they've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time, like months, few years they are going to be dramatically cheaper than, Any other form of delivering broadband.”
Gurley: SpaceX and Tesla are Elon Musk outliers, not repeatable models
“SpaceX and Tesla are data points, but they're outliers really, and they're both attached to Elon. So I think it'll, we'll have to see four or five of those from non Elon to know if it's possible. I, what I've learned and heard and studied about his execution p…”
Baker: Only hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX added 500MW in a year
“To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power, In a year, are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX.”
Nolan: Incumbent Aerospace Stagnated for Decades on Subsidized Cost-Plus Contracts
“So that was an industry that had stagnated for decades. Nobody, no incumbent was doing anything interesting. They were all just writing government cost plus contracts. The U S assumed that space launch was a nation state capability. That would never be a comme…”
Nolan: Stagnated, cost-plus oligopoly industries are prime for venture disruption
“I think the thing that's most linked to stagnation is probably being a cost plus industry where there's very little incentive for progress, not much incentive to bring the cost structure down. And therefore you end up with this, like this fixed market size tha…”
Emanuel: Personally invested in SpaceX, X, and xAI
“If I'm a betting man, first of all, if I'm a betting man, I'm betting on that dude. I bet I'm on SpaceX, X, XAI, Twitter.”
Baker: Benchmark Funded Orbital Compute Startup StarCloud Partnering with SpaceX
“There's our friends at Benchmark, they funded StarCloud, and I don't know, last time StarCloud is an orbital compute company that, like, SpaceX is kind of partnering with they're gonna, I think, let them use the Starlink laser technology, which is really impor…”
Baker: SpaceX operates 98% to 99% of all satellites in orbit
“SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is like 98 or 99% of all satellites in orbit.”
Nolan Believed SpaceX Would Own Space Launch at 30 Employees
“I know the incumbents are not going to make an impact, but there's this new company, SpaceX, that is going to ultimately own the entire space launch industry, which I believed even when it was 30 people.”
Nolan: Government Agency Believers Eagerly Collaborate With Credible Companies
“And so I think my takeaway was in, in industries where you have true believers who are in the government agencies and who have been doing this for a long time, they're there because they want it to happen. And there's a lot of openness and excitement to workin…”
Nolan: Hardware Teams Should Aim for 90-95% Readiness and Iterate Later
“So it was really use good engineering principles. Think from first principles, move fast, get it to 90, 95%, not 99%. We can, and it's like get operational and you can make it better later. But if we just never launch, if we never get operational, this isn't g…”
Mehta: Passing on Elon Musk's SpaceX was Greenoaks' single biggest mistake
“It's actually the biggest mistake we've ever made at Green Oaks. It's a mistake I'm about to tell you. Which as we had heard, he fires people quickly. He's hyper aggressive. He's a, he's, he manages down to like the nth layer. You know, he micromanages people …”