The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Intel or Samsung will break discipline in the semiconductor foundry market
“One of Intel and Samsung, they're not going to stay disciplined. They will break, and then at some level that will force everyone else to break.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 26:35 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Insight
Thompson: Massive compute demand solves TSMC dependence by funding alternative foundries
“The way to solve the geopolitical problem of Dependence on TSMC is to come up with a compute use case that is so massive that everyone is economically incentivized to bring other people up to speed. And then we get the sort of geopolitical insurance for free.”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 47:14 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best
Opinion
Clear CEO: Very little stands in the way of universal facial recognition
“I don't think a lot. I don't think there's a lot. I mean look at your iPhone or your Google phone, Samsung, right? First touch ID started, I think in. Or something of that nature. And then face ID. So, I don't think there's a lot in between that. I think it ma…”
Caryn Seidman Becker Jul 8, 2025 ▶ 58:36 Clear's Turnaround from Bankruptcy to IPO with CEO Caryn Seidman Becker · Invest Like The Best
What-if
Baker: Alternative Foundries Would Improve Rapidly if NVIDIA or AMD Used Them
“The reality is like if a company like Nvidia or AMD were to ever really, really use one of these other foundries, that foundry would get better really quickly.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 57:53 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
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