The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vishria: Fireworks achieves 5x speed and higher throughput than major clouds
“And the performance difference For a fireworks versus, like, a cloud provider is, like, five X. And that is just the speed performance. Then you add on top of that the, like, throughput, which is not visible externally. It's only visible if you look at, if you…”
DeepSeek Release Doubled Asian AWS GPU Rental Prices Due to Compute Demand
“And that was really strange because by Deep Seek Monday, it was super clear That this was going to be the most positive thing that had ever happened to compute demand. Prices in the AWS availability zones in Asia had already, like, doubled. You were seeing GPU…”
Patel: CPUs are completely sold out driven by reinforcement learning demand
“CPU-wise, all these reinforcement learning environments plus all the slop code you and I are generating that is now running on some, you know, Vercel instance or whatever it is or some AWS instance or some bucket that we've spun up, all of that requires CPU, a…”
Sundheim: AI Capital Intensity Will Challenge AWS and Azure Profit Margins
“Over the next 10 years, I think the business, these hyperscalers, AWS, Azure, will grow fast. I think the margins, my guess, will be challenged, both because the businesses are getting a lot more capital intensive, because AI is capital intensive, more capital…”
Sundheim: LLM API businesses are durable and differentiated like cloud providers
“You've just seen with Cloud Code and even OpenAI's API business, like, these are durable businesses, and yes, can you switch? You can, the same way you could switch AWS or Azure but it's not worth it for a lot of businesses to do it, and there's sufficient dif…”
Patel: Intel Fell Behind Due to Poor Internal Fab Data Sharing
“Like, I think part of the reason Intel's behind is also that, ah, data sharing internally was terrible. And just within the FAP. The lithography team doesn't want to share their data with the etch team, And they can't use, and that data can't leave the fab and…”
Thompson: AWS was not built from spare Amazon compute capacity
“AWS, contrary to sort of popular thought, was not spare Amazon capacity. Actually, it took a long time to get Amazon.com onto AWS, but the, what it drove was the understanding that we need to have a scalable, we can't be having so many meetings. Like, we need …”
Vishria: Hardware companies cannot control their destiny like software companies do
“With software companies,
You know, aside from, like, building on AWS or whatever, you pretty much own your whole stack, and so you're really fully in control of your destiny in that way.
With hardware companies, you don't.
Like, there's an entire supply chain,…”
Patel: Amazon took 20 years to migrate off Oracle databases
“Amazon leading Oracle took fucking 20 years, right, and they wanted to do it 20 years ago, And they have, their highest revenue products after EC-II were like, the next four were like, database products at AWS, and yet they still freaking used Oracle's databas…”