The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Meta and Microsoft failed to build competitive internal frontier AI models
“Because Meta threw a lot of money at it and they failed. Jan LeCun had to leave. They had to have the famous billion dollar for AI researchers. By the way, Microsoft also failed. They did not make such an unequivocal prediction, but they hire, but they bought …”
Virtually every major software company except Microsoft is failing the AI transition
“This is a life or death decision, and essentially everyone except Microsoft Is failing it.”
Thompson: Power AI Users Cost Microsoft Far More Than $100 Monthly
“I think they had to do it because that extreme of user who uses a ton of tokens and is actually leveraging AI costs way more to Microsoft than a hundred dollars a month. They can't support them, but they want to hold on to this set cost for the vast majority o…”
Wachen: In-House AI Chip Failure Is Not Existential for Hyperscalers or OpenAI
“Meta won't fail if MTIA fails, Microsoft won't fail if Maya fails, and OpenAI won't fail if Jalapeno fails.”
Microsoft Stock Would Be $800 if GPUs Were Exclusively for AI Labs
“Microsoft probably be an 800 dollar stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve open AI Solely open AI and anthropics capacity instead of using them for their own products.”
Mitchell Green: Software Moats Come from Distribution and Retention, Not R&D
“Our belief, for right or wrong, is that the competitive advantage of software company has never been about R&D.
We're not building semiconductor chips.
Like we're not, it's, we're not building biotech and pharma companies.
This isn't that it's to build like ch…”
AI is the first tech market where low-cost production defines success
“AI is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the low-cost producers ever mattered. Apple is not worth trillions because they're the low-cost producer of phones. Microsoft is not worth trillions because they're the low-cost producer of softwa…”
Rao: Anthropic is the only AI lab on all three major clouds and chip architectures
“We are, you know, the only model that's on all three clouds today, we're the only language lab that's using all three of these chip platforms.”
Patel: Nebius will make at least $6B gross profit from Microsoft deal
“Nebius is gonna make, like, at least six billion dollars of gross profit off of this.”
Baker: Microsoft added huge capacity in June that missed Q2 results
“Microsoft, they brought on a huge slug of capacity in the month of June. That didn't even show up in the second quarter.”
Baker: Hyperscaler Operating Cash Flow Growth Accelerated to 35% Adjusted
“If we look at operating cash flow, not free cash flow, operating cash flow from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon has reported accelerated from 28 to 32. There are some actually pretty big unusual items now, like these hyperscalers, they always seem to have, like, b…”
Liemandt: Trilogy beat Microsoft on 70% of competing offers in 1997-1998
“At the time, I think Microsoft, you know, sort of the peak of their power in 97, 98, 90% of students would go to Microsoft versus any competing company. And against Trilogy, it was like, ah, Microsoft only got 30% and we won 70.”