why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosrowshahi: Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta increased human Uber driver earnings
“Now drivers in Austin and Atlanta, where we have two big partnerships with Waymo, Drivers on the Uber platform, they're making more money. The number of drivers joining the platform is increasing because it looks like AVs are actually adding incremental demand…”
Assertion Supported
George: Waymo surpassed Lyft in San Francisco Bay Area market share
“There are something like 50,000 Lyft drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area and Waymo overtook them in market share.”
Assertion Contradicted
George: Waymo operates only about 400 cars in San Francisco
“They have like 400.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
George: In-home robotics will take a long time despite generative AI
“Endless degrees of freedom, like make a cup of coffee you know, go do my laundry, but it took Waymo 10 years. And, you know, if you go back to the DARPA challenge, like the whole industry, you know, decades to get to this .2 decades to get to this point, rough…”
Disclosure
George: a16z was the only VC firm in Waymo's 2020 outside round
“We originally invested in 2020 in Waymo. They came to us to raise outside capital for the first time. So it's just purely funded by Google over time. They thought it would be helpful for employees, for hiring all that stuff, outside counsel, all that, diversif…”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Uber has over 30 autonomous vehicle partnerships
“So we've got over 30 partnerships now with incredible partners like a Waymo to a Neuro and Lucid to an NVIDIA that is building not just compute and sensors, but also a software driver now to companies like Wabi and Wave, WeRides of the World, Pony AIs of the W…”
Insight
Zhang: Enterprises must evaluate AI on holistic success rates, not zero mistakes
“There's the Waymo effect that often happens where It will be objectively just way better than human drivers, and human drivers make a lot of mistakes, but because we're investing in new technology, the bar is a lot higher, so it has to be near perfect. So ther…”