The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thompson: Apple's ATT Was One of Tech's Worst Antitrust Violations
“When Apple passed ATT, app tracking transparency was one of the most One of the worst antitrust violations in the history of technology, like, just Apple unilaterally obliterating all these business models while they're simultaneously building their own, as fa…”
Chesky: Apple Has Largely Not Had to Invent New Products Since Jobs
“I think Apple is very similar. They've had not had to invent new products for the most part. They're still running the iPhone.”
Patel: If Taiwan Geopolitical Risk Scares You from TSMC, Avoid Apple Too
“I know a lot of people's PMs are like, oh, you can't invest in TSMC because geopolitical risk, and it's like, no, dude, you can't invest in fucking Apple.”
Thompson: Apple excels at deterministic hardware, not probabilistic AI
“AI is this probabilistic endeavor. Apple is the king of deterministic products. Like, a physical product, you ship that iPhone, you ship it once, and it's gotta be good.”
Sankar: Apple Spent Equivalent of 2.5 Marshall Plans in China
“Apple has spent the equivalent on an inflation-adjusted basis in the last five years of two and a half Marshall plans building talent and capacity in China.”
AI is the first tech market where low-cost production defines success
“AI is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the low-cost producers ever mattered. Apple is not worth trillions because they're the low-cost producer of phones. Microsoft is not worth trillions because they're the low-cost producer of softwa…”
Dan Wang: China's Openness to Western Manufacturing Outperformed Japan's Closed Export Model
“By contrast, China has been much more open than Japan. China, most famously, is well known for building Apple's iPhones and Tesla's vehicles, and it, the communist system recognized that it was so far behind technological leaders, mostly through open the doors…”
Patel: Hyperscalers will pause buybacks to reinvest in AI CapEx
“They're gonna, those companies aren't gonna do buybacks ever fucking again, right? Or not, like, ever again, but for a while. Because, like, they have way more, they think there's better ROI for their capital now.”
Diller: Big tech streaming models create a poor environment for creators
“How do you deal when the business model instead of being the audience reaction to it is to take a subscription to prime whose business model is to get you to buy products on Amazon where they offer you on the side Movies and television programs. They could not…”
Thompson: Meta Would Be Better Positioned If It Championed Advertising
“I think if they had made that Communicate that more consistently. They would be in a better place generally from a PR perspective. They would have been a better place relative to Apple, and I think they would have an easier time right now convincing Wall Stree…”
Apple aims to be a privacy-safe AI distributor running local models
“And this is clearly Apple's strategy. It's just, we're going to be a distributor of AI and we're going to make it privacy safe and run on the phone. And then you can call one of the big models, you know, the God models in the cloud, whatever you have a questio…”
Spotify essentially operates as the missing R&D department for the music industry
“My team, the, R and D team and all of Spotify, we are the R and D department of the music industry. And first people were like, what do you mean? And I'm like, well, look at it. It's an entire industry that doesn't have an R and D department. Like, you know, m…”
Thompson: Apple is diversifying modestly but not truly leaving China
“But even that is a good example because Apple is not moving, truly moving out of China. Like they're diversifying to an extent, but the problem, it would just cost so much.”
Steve Jobs personally reviewed every billboard and landing page at Apple
“Nothing went out of Apple. Not a billboard in Missouri, not a, what's on their landing page without Steve looking at it.”
Apple effectively paid $500M to acquire NeXT just to rehire Steve Jobs
“Did Apple really need Next? No, they needed Steve Jobs. So they paid five, they paid half a billion dollars to rehire the guy they shouldn't, that they needed, and he produced, you know, whatever return on that money.”
George: 2009 Wall Street Consensus Underestimated Apple's 2013 Performance by 3x
“In 2009, if you looked at consensus estimates for Apple, And then compared for 2013. So 2009 consensus estimate for the year, 2013 and compared it to actual performance in 2013 consensus estimates were off by three X.”
Becker bought Apple at $14 when it held $9 per share cash
“So I thought Apple when we bought it for 14 dollars with I think nine dollars a share of cash on the balance sheet was a value stock. And the street thought they could earn 60 cents, and I thought they could earn a dollar, and then from there, here's where we …”
Becker invested in Apple, Amazon, and Priceline in 2002
“And in 2002, we started Ariance capital, which stood for art and science, which is my view of investing. It's highly quantitative and highly qualitative art and science. And so we had the good fortune, although every day didn't necessarily feel that way, of in…”