The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
DeepSeek Release Doubled Asian AWS GPU Rental Prices Due to Compute Demand
“And that was really strange because by Deep Seek Monday, it was super clear That this was going to be the most positive thing that had ever happened to compute demand. Prices in the AWS availability zones in Asia had already, like, doubled. You were seeing GPU…”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 4:17 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Chinese State Forbids DeepSeek From Communicating With Foreigners
“These companies generally don't like to talk to foreigners at the best of times. And then you have, An overbearing state that in some cases forbids deep seek from chatting with foreigners.”
Dan Wang Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 1:26:46 China vs America: The Battle for Global Dominance Explained | Dan Wang interview · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: China's open AI models will enable experimentation unmatched in the US
“And so that level of competition, if it leads to four deep pocketed, all open products is going to be ultra powerful. And we've already learned that these models can train each other and help each other get better. So if you have four open ones that can all tr…”
Bill Gurley Jun 10, 2025 ▶ 1:03:10 The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private with Bill Gurley · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Rao: Anthropic Reached Nearly $1B Run Rate by Late 2024 Series E
“At the end of 20, 24, we raised the Series E. You know, the business had scaled to, you know, close to a billion dollars of run rate revenue, but the day of our first close was the day of the DeepSeek news came out.”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 47:06 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Mehta: DeepSeek achieved a 35x token cost reduction versus OpenAI reasoning models
“Deep seek, figure out a way to deploy a model at like a 35 X reduction for input output tokens on a comparative basis to open a eyes reasoning models.”
Neil Mehta Apr 15, 2025 ▶ 53:24 Finding the Next Figma, Wiz, & Stripe Before It's Obvious | Neil Mehta Interview · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Granat: Public markets will face more DeepSeek-style knee-jerk shock reactions
“And I think there was a knee jerk reaction from the market. We will have more of these, right? That is just part of this.”
Kelly Granat Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 28:02 Kelly Granat - Investing At Lone Pine · Invest Like The Best
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