The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Baker: AWS Trainium is doing best among chips trying to beat GPUs
“And you have TPU, Tranium, and AMD, Which are all you know, essentially trying to be a better GPU, and today I think probably Tranium is doing the best.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 43:24 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Disclosure
Anthropic signs 5GW TPU deal with Google and Broadcom starting in 2027
“So last month, you know, we signed a five gigawatt deal with Google and with Broadcom for TPUs starting in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Krishna Rao May 13, 2026 ▶ 23:50 Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nvidia's Rubin architecture will significantly widen its lead over custom ASICs
“And then when Rubin comes out, we'll know the gap. The gap is going to expand significant versus TPUs versus TPUs and all other ASICs.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 15:53 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Few custom AI ASICs beyond Amazon Trainium and Google TPU will succeed
“I will be surprised if there are a lot of ASICs other than Tranium and TPU.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 21:09 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Amazon Trainium and Google TPU will eventually transition to customer-owned tooling
“And by the way, in Tranium and TPU, we'll both run on customer owned tooling at some point. We can debate when that will happen, but the economics of success that I just described mean it's inevitable. Like no matter what the companies say, just the economics …”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 21:16 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Google has the lowest token COGS due to TPUs
“They have the lowest cost of goods sold for any token of any company because they have their own vertical stack on TPUs.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 1:58:34 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Thompson: Google agreed to sell about 20% of its TPUs to Anthropic
“Google already made a deal to sell, like, 20% of their TPUs to Anthropic.”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 1:18:20 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best
Assertion Supported
Wachen: Existing GPUs and TPUs are retrofitted pre-ChatGPT hardware
“Every GPU, every TPU, every AI chip that was serving these models were just, like, fundamentally built before this and are retrofit to serve these modern models.”
Rob Wachen Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 21:10 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best
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