why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Baker: AWS Trainium is doing best among chips trying to beat GPUs
“And you have TPU, Tranium, and AMD, Which are all you know, essentially trying to be a better GPU, and today I think probably Tranium is doing the best.”
Disclosure
Anthropic signs 5GW TPU deal with Google and Broadcom starting in 2027
“So last month, you know, we signed a five gigawatt deal with Google and with Broadcom for TPUs starting in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nvidia's Rubin architecture will significantly widen its lead over custom ASICs
“And then when Rubin comes out, we'll know the gap. The gap is going to expand significant versus TPUs versus TPUs and all other ASICs.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Few custom AI ASICs beyond Amazon Trainium and Google TPU will succeed
“I will be surprised if there are a lot of ASICs other than Tranium and TPU.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Amazon Trainium and Google TPU will eventually transition to customer-owned tooling
“And by the way, in Tranium and TPU, we'll both run on customer owned tooling at some point. We can debate when that will happen, but the economics of success that I just described mean it's inevitable. Like no matter what the companies say, just the economics …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Google has the lowest token COGS due to TPUs
“They have the lowest cost of goods sold for any token of any company because they have their own vertical stack on TPUs.”
Assertion Supported
Thompson: Google agreed to sell about 20% of its TPUs to Anthropic
“Google already made a deal to sell, like, 20% of their TPUs to Anthropic.”
Assertion Supported
Wachen: Existing GPUs and TPUs are retrofitted pre-ChatGPT hardware
“Every GPU, every TPU, every AI chip that was serving these models were just, like, fundamentally built before this and are retrofit to serve these modern models.”