The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Loeb: Third Point Now Checks Bank Balances After the FTX Fraud
“I will say that now our due diligence process, we definitely, like, check bank balances and do, like, the most basic due diligence that probably would have, you know, turned stuff up on, on this.”
Loeb: Current AI Tech Does Not Have a Dot-Com Valuation Bubble
“So, I, it's very different from the dot-com bubble, which we were short, you know, going into and had good numbers in those years. I just don't see, you don't have the valuation bubble now on those companies that you had on, on, on those companies back in thos…”
Loeb: AI and hyperscalers are the most attractive market sector
“Unless you are really draconian or negative, and you think that somehow the AI world is going to roll over in 31 or 32, I think it's some of the most attractive, you know, I think it's the most attractive sector right now. It's where the bulk of our capital is…”
Loeb: AI Disruption Rapidly Degraded Supposedly High-Quality Businesses
“Now what happened last year was really interesting because a lot of these companies that appeared to be super high quality, probably the worst year and going into the beginning of this year because the disruption of AI, a lot of these apparently high quality c…”
Loeb: Dogmatic Deep-Value Focus Caused Widespread Investor Underperformance
“I think if you look at a lot of the people who have underperformed or haven't survived the last decade or so, when people are really stuck on the idea of deep value, low multiples, and being really stubborn about How they viewed businesses and less flexible ab…”
Loeb: Third Point participated in xAI debt financing despite no cash flow
“And then when, ah, XAI did a debt financing, ah, very few credit people wanted to play in that one because there was no cash flow. Two million dollars, two billion dollars in revenues and a twenty billion dollar, ah, enterprise value, but we were very comforta…”
Loeb: Spinoff management teams sandbag forecasts to optimize incentive packages
“Management teams would go out in the case of a spinoff. And do a road show that would present a very conservative view. Some might even say sandbag the numbers. Why? Because people are always creatures of incentives. Their incentive package would be set at the…”
Loeb: Bullish on Korea, Taiwan, and Japan; Europe Tough Due to Regulation
“In terms of the big markets, yeah, there's a lot going on in Korea, Taiwan, Japan. I'm Probably more bullish on just in terms of a hunting ground to find great companies. The European markets are just tough right now, given the regulatory environment. They jus…”
Loeb: Third Point Underestimated AI's Disruption of Info Services
“The mistake that we made within the last two years, we obviously were looking for, and we've made some great short investments in, or so we've taken some great shorts and things that are being disrupted
By AI, but where we've made the mistake is that we're con…”
Loeb: Third Point targets boards driven by status and income
“I think if you're on a board because you are either getting status or you're getting income and that's your primary reason for doing it, not for representing shareholders, then that's where we come in to try to disintermediate that and take away some of the st…”
Loeb: Third Point made discounted Twitter debt its largest credit position
“The Twitter debt was a resale of the financing debt that was offered when Elon bought the company. Morgan Stanley sat on it for a while. It was deep underwater. When it got close to par, they decided to sell it. Most credit investors were really scared and ner…”
Dan Loeb: AI will create net jobs rather than economic apocalypse
“I think we're probably more optimistic or I should say that maybe less pessimistic that there's going to be some kind of
You know, apocalypse from AI, like I, I'm still pretty optimistic that it will create opportunities and create jobs and create net jobs.
Ob…”
Loeb: Most Third Point campaigns succeed without taking board seats
“Most of the time in our experiences, we've been able to work with existing boards and kind of redirecting them and offering solutions, or sometimes we don't even have to get on the board to get those things done.”
Loeb: Third Point's strong 2020 came from IG credit, not stocks
“So, going back to, like, COVID, the thing that we got really right, because we had a good year that year, but it wasn't because we piled into stocks, we piled into, you know, IG credit when it was, so, maybe that's answering the question a little bit different…”
Loeb details Third Point's credit, CLO, and liability asset breakdown
“Across the fund we have a CLO business with about seven billion dollars in it. Within Third Point itself we have about 30% of a, which would make it about close to three billion dollars in structured credit and corporate credit, but that's within the hedge fun…”