The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Losing TSMC Wouldn't Be Disastrous Because Intel Is Only 2x Behind
“And my contrarian take is that it wouldn't be that bad. Supply would take a shock for sure, but The best processes that we have in the West, like Intel, not that far behind, at worst, like maybe two X worst performance per watt. And the gap is just far smaller…”
TSMC Performance Per Watt Barely Changes From 5nm to 2nm
“If you look at TSMC five nanometer versus four versus three versus two, the performance per watt on these chips doesn't change like a dramatic amount.”
Patel: If Taiwan Geopolitical Risk Scares You from TSMC, Avoid Apple Too
“I know a lot of people's PMs are like, oh, you can't invest in TSMC because geopolitical risk, and it's like, no, dude, you can't invest in fucking Apple.”
Thompson: Compute shortage will worsen over the next few years
“TSMC, Decreased their rate of growth in twenty-twenty-three and twenty-twenty-four and twenty-twenty-five. So, like, we're, our shortage of compute is going to get worse in the next few years.”
Thompson: Intel will announce a major foundry customer within the year
“The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. And I expect at some point in the year that they're going to announce like some major partner for the first time. It's going to be a big deal, but it was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves.”
Patel: TSMC could reach $100B in annual CapEx by 2028
“Sincerely, they may spend a hundred billion dollars on capex in twenty-twenty-eight, and people, like, just can't fathom that”
Thompson: Massive compute demand solves TSMC dependence by funding alternative foundries
“The way to solve the geopolitical problem of Dependence on TSMC is to come up with a compute use case that is so massive that everyone is economically incentivized to bring other people up to speed. And then we get the sort of geopolitical insurance for free.”
Movva: Expanding Fab Capacity Immediately Exposes Downstream Bottlenecks
“If we snap our fingers and double all those things, you might fix a TSMC bottleneck that they're, you're just gonna run into another bottleneck. You make 20% more chips, then you have another bottleneck immediately.”
Vishria: Hardware companies cannot control their destiny like software companies do
“With software companies,
You know, aside from, like, building on AWS or whatever, you pretty much own your whole stack, and so you're really fully in control of your destiny in that way.
With hardware companies, you don't.
Like, there's an entire supply chain,…”
Uberti: TSMC will continue to win due to superior customer service
“It is why they're the number one and why they're going to win.”
Uberti: TSMC funded an experiment on Etched's recommendation and updated its line
“TSMC customer service is way, way better than I have seen at any other company in any other industry. It's the kind of thing where if you say, hey, you can approve your yield by making this change, you can go make them a recommendation, and then we'll go run a…”