The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vishria: Foundation model labs like Anthropic will not capture 98% of AI value
“There's so much zero-sum thinking, which is just like, okay, how do we cut up this pie, and they're gonna eat this much, and like, oh, no, no, no, no, no, Anthropic or whomever is gonna eat, 98% of the value, and they're gonna do all the drug discovery, and I …”
Vishria: AI value will accrue across CSPs, neoclouds, chips, and edge inference
“Will the CSPs do well? Yes. Yes. Will some of these neoclouds do well? Yes. Will the fireworks of the world do well? Yes. Will NVIDIA do well? Yes. Will these, like, chip startups do well? Or, you know, some set of them? Yes. Like, Are we gonna have edge infer…”
Vishria: High-multiple VC returns are no longer restricted to early stage
“Recently, relatively recently, in the last few years because outcomes have gotten so much bigger and these markets are bigger and everything else, The circle of high cash on cash multiple opportunities is bigger than just early stage. And it's not so, so big t…”
Vishria: Cerebras attempted a 2024 IPO at a much lower valuation
“Take the Cerebrus example as a good one, which is, like, we took it public this time in May, but, like, we tried to take it public in twenty-twenty-four, and it would have been taken public at a much, much lower valuation, and like, you know, it would have bee…”
Naimi: Sequoia, Benchmark, and a16z only lose Series A deals to each other
“Typically when one of those three firms extends an offer to a company, they tend to win, unless they're competing with one of the two other ones, and then they tend to only lose to one of the other two.”
Horing: Benchmark and Sequoia are unlikely to accept $1B exits today
“To get Benchmark or Sequoia to sell something for a billion dollars probably doesn't get their heart rate up today. So the likelihood that they would do those deals again today, knowing what the world looks like and what the upside could be for these types of …”
Vishria admits Benchmark was late to launch a growth fund
“You could argue we're a few years late, and I think I'd take that criticism. I think that but I think that opportunity exists for, on a go-forward basis and so, like, we should go do it.”
Baker: Benchmark Funded Orbital Compute Startup StarCloud Partnering with SpaceX
“There's our friends at Benchmark, they funded StarCloud, and I don't know, last time StarCloud is an orbital compute company that, like, SpaceX is kind of partnering with they're gonna, I think, let them use the Starlink laser technology, which is really impor…”