Anthropic

“It inflected with coding and the like, but when you sort of think about how he's invested around that, that's not accidental. That was intentional and probably defensible. Like, you know, there's a risk it's not, but you know, I think it's a pretty interesting…”

“All of their revenue comes from four Sonnet. Doesn't come from 4.1 Opus, right? Which is the better model. It's bigger, but it's slow. Because the hardware's not caught up in terms of inference speed for that, and so no one wants to use a slow model, right? Th…”

“Where you see Anthropic have gone from, like, what, like, a billion or less of revenue to seven to eight by, you know, already, and it's the fastest revenue ramp we've ever seen for anything of this capacity.”

“Cursor has, like, I don't know, like, nearly a billion dollars of revenue now on a, if you do current month times 12.”

“I'm actually more optimistic on Anthropic than I'm OpenAI. Their revenue is accelerating way faster because what they're focused on is more relevant to that two trillion dollar software market versus OpenAI is split between, yeah, they're going to do that, but…”

“Like, the gross profit dollars are going to the hardware layer from all of this, for sure.”

“Based on public information, anthropic revenues and coaching went from two hundred million to over four billion in 12 months. In B to B, that kind of growth has not happened. Ever.”

“Anthropic is a good company. You know, they're burning dramatically less cash Then open AI and growing faster.”

“They process 1.35 trillion tokens. Google did like eight or nine hundred billion. This is like whatever it is, last seven days or last month. You know, Anthropic was at seven hundred billion.”

“The four labs that matter, you know, being open AI, Gemini, Anthropic and XAI, Which are clearly the four leading labs.”

“If you haven't been at like Google or Facebook or open AI or anthropic and like somebody gave you hundreds of millions of dollars to try and build a giant model and you weren't like one of the main people, then you probably don't know how to do it because you …”

“And Dara just did that better than almost any CEO I've seen since Bezos.”

“If you look at the underlying margins of these companies, they are not the margins that you see in a commoditized industry. You know, the gross margins are quite high.”

“Anthropa took a different approach and just said, we are going to focus on enterprise. They tried consumer early on, but it became clear they didn't have traction, so then they just went all in the enterprise.”

“At some point in the next five to 10 years, they'll be generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. When that happens, I think that, ah, they're likely to insource the compute.”

“If you were to say, like, what is an important difference of Netflix versus these models is Netflix's content was differentiated. The models are more similar than they are different in that, like, you know, at any given time OpenAI may have a better model, Ant…”

“You've just seen with Cloud Code and even OpenAI's API business, like, these are durable businesses, and yes, can you switch? You can, the same way you could switch AWS or Azure but it's not worth it for a lot of businesses to do it, and there's sufficient dif…”

“Mythos is potentially the biggest step up in model capabilities in like two years.”

“Where they only release, meet those to certain companies for cyber, that's just going to be something that continues. Models will have less broad and less broad deployment.”

“So ultimately what they've done, even if you assume all incremental compute they've gotten has gone towards inference, their margins are at a floor of 72%. In reality, some of that incremental compute they've got probably went to research and development and m…”

“I think other folks will start to reckon with the fact that, huh, If this person can do the work of five to 10 to 15 people using quad code, then all of a sudden I should probably cut people.”

“Anthropic Mythos is more expensive as a model, but it spends a lot less tokens to do the thing, and therefore it is actually cheaper in most tasks than four, six Opus, because it's just way more efficient, even though each individual token is smarter.”

“First of all, Sam Altman and Dario have to stop getting on interviews. They're so uncharismatic. I don't know what they're doing. Every interview they do is like, wow, normal people are gonna hate you even more.”

“Anthropic has gone from nine billion revenue to what they're at, 35, forty billion. Now probably by the time this airs, 40, forty-five billion. Who knows? ARR.”

“Google and Anthropic are not heavy, heavy users of GPUs on the training side, but OpenAI, they'll, they'll start having their new class of models.”

“They could double their pricing on Opus, and I would continue to pay, and I bet most users would continue to pay. I bet that wouldn't solve their humongous capacity problem that they have.”

“But the shitty SaaS startup and SF who is using Claude to generate, you know, their software product is not necessarily actually creating a ton of value, and therefore they're gonna get priced out of tokens soon enough.”

“But ultimately, yes, Mythos is a significantly larger model. It's proof that the scaling laws still work. Everything about it shows that the trend line continues of models. More compute into model makes model better.”

“Across a firm, we're spending seven million dollars a year now on Claude code at the current rate versus our salary expense being in the neighborhood of twenty-five million dollars.”

“Today, you know, all of our legal entities, we can produce the statutory financial statements using Claude. And yes, the human checks it, but all of those financial statements are produced with Claude.”

“So the answer is, you know, we're constrained kind of across those use cases internally today.”

“Our teams are deeply embedded with the Annapurna Labs team. You know, we are, you know, really good users of Tranium. We've spent a lot of time and energy and worked closely with the team and internally we plan capacity together.”

“Even our product development today is not done by, like, one product manager with two engineers shipping something over three months. It's shipping daily, and there's a fleet of agents that are working across the company on a specific task, so everyone kind of…”

“On the way here, I was in, in, in an Uber, and I signed two double-digit million dollar commits, like, in the car ride, which was, like, 20 minutes.”

“If we were to say to our employees, you can't use our models anymore. We could serve billions of dollars of revenue with that compute that we allocate to employees internally, but we want to take a long-term view and a long-term perspective on that cone of unc…”

“We, You know, run workloads on one day in the morning on a chip for inference, and in the afternoon or evening we use it for model development.”

“That paradigm does not exist in a company like a software company or a factory, right? If you can't repurpose, if you have a bunch of people doing R&D and that's your R&D expense, they can't go and become cogs, right? And vice versa in most traditional compani…”

“So we had 30 different product and feature releases in January.”

“When, you know, Meta and others were out, you know, with these huge packages for some of the technical talent in, in, across the large language labs, I think we lost two people and other labs lost dozens.”

“We are, you know, the only model that's on all three clouds today, we're the only language lab that's using all three of these chip platforms.”

“A lot of what we're doing today is helping to speed up The drug development process, right? A lot of the paperwork and clinical studies reports and things like that that are needed to be done. AI and our solutions in particular are helping to rapidly accelerat…”

“We announced a partnership with SpaceX for their Colossus facility in Memphis. We're really excited about that. It's gonna allow us to continue to expand, especially on the consumer and prosumer side.”

“The changing the pricing for Opus actually, you know, you see this Jevons paradox, right? Like we lowered the price of it, but the consumption went up way, way more than what you would have expected.”

“Well, when I joined the business, it had about two hundred fifty million of run rate revenue, and the plan was to get to a billion, and I said, great, in what year?”

“If you buy too much compute, you go out of business. If you buy too little compute, you can't serve your customers and you're not at the frontier.”

“At the end of 20, 24, we raised the Series E. You know, the business had scaled to, you know, close to a billion dollars of run rate revenue, but the day of our first close was the day of the DeepSeek news came out.”

“That said, like, we will also build our own applications on that same platform where a couple things are true. Number one, if we feel like we have, you know, a vision into where the models are going, and we can kind of demonstrate that and create customer valu…”

“In our case, we actually see both improvements, huge improvements in capability, but also in model efficiency. And so if you look at going from Opus, you know, four to four, five, four, six, and now four, seven, You know, each one of those leaps, they're not e…”

“We also signed a deal with Amazon for Tranium for up to five gigawatts as well. It was an over a hundred billion dollar commitment, and a lot of that computer's actually Like already landing and will land in the rest of this year into next year.”

“Most of what we're building is platform, and we think that there's so many examples of where a platform can accrue a lot of value, but the customers who are building on that platform actually accrue even more value. We think that's where, what we're setting up…”

“We're building our own compilers. We're really building things from the chip level up in order to have that customization and that flexibility”

“Where, you know, starting with around Sonnet three, five, three, six, we started to see this really remarkable jump in capability, which was then followed By adoption and usage and revenue.”

“There's a level of compute for model development that we will not go below, right? So even if it means it's harder to serve customers, or we have to do kind of unnatural things when it comes to that, we want to continue to make that long-term investment in dev…”

“I would say I spend 30 or 40% of my time on compute even today.”

“We don't train on customer data in the enterprise side. On the prosumer side, it's only if you opt in.”

“Like we now sell to nine of the fortune 10, all of those enterprises are entrusting us with, you know, customer information, with their data, they're interacting with their employees, sometimes even interacting with their customers as well.”

“So last month, you know, we signed a five gigawatt deal with Google and with Broadcom for TPUs starting in twenty-twenty-seven.”

“I think it is towards this vision or this goal of like a virtual collaborator. And so think of this as, you know, something that has context within your organization that can use all of the tools That are specific to you, whether they be homegrown tools or too…”

“Our net dollar retention rate is over 500% on an annualized basis.”

“We had an open source code base that, you know, a prior model found 22 security vulnerabilities in, and Mythos then found 250.”

“From what we see, the scaling laws are not slowing down.”

“We now have a library of skills for Claude that are specific to finance. I think last, last I checked, there were over 70 of them that everyone can kind of access through this kind of common repository. And on top of that, we built an MFR, a monthly financial …”

“And so th this idea of a variable cost that's like on the incremental to serve a customer is, is, is a little bit like it doesn't really fit our business, right? It tries to maybe fit our business into like a software paradigm, but that's not the case.”

“We started the year with about nine billion dollars of run rate revenue, and we ended the quarter with, you know, north of thirty billion dollars of run rate revenue.”

“All seven of the co-founders are still at the company. The vast majority of the first, you know, 20 to 30 employees are still at the company.”

“Right now within the company, you know, 90 plus percent of Our code is actually written by cloud code, right? A lot of cloud codes code is written by cloud code.”

“And, you know, it was a little hard to predict that, but now we can use coding as an analog for a lot of what's happening elsewhere in the economy and elsewhere in our business. And so we kind of look at pattern recognition in our own business to try to predic…”

“We are very like America first in, in our approach. We want the technology to support the U S as well as, you know, democratic countries around the world. And that's one of the reasons why we've been working closely with the administration on something on some…”

“And there's a little bit of this I think of it again like Jevin's paradox, but for labor, which is that we have people who become incredibly more productive. We actually, we've hired a lot more people because of that, because there's no shortage of work to do,…”

“And what I just mean by that is in Anthropik, they added eleven billion dollars of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that The SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between five and 10 trillion dollars of value. And I would say argua…”

“Anthropic clearly is, has a dramatically lower cost per token than OpenAI.”

“Google dominated that nine months ago. At every point on the Pareto frontier, OpenAI, XAI, and Anthropic were inside of them. Now, the Pareto Frontier is dominated by Anthropic, OpenAI, and then Grok 4.3 is on the Pareto Frontier.”

“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”

“There's an analysis Claude is even on Opus is generating 70% less tokens for the exact same question.”

“Maybe a true statement is that if anthropic had all the compute, they'd probably be doing Well north of a hundred billion dollars today. Maybe a 150.”

“Anthropic I'm sure is at very positive gross margins on inference today.”

“But could Anthropic raise money? At probably a, at least a 100% premium. To this rumored latest mark? Of course.”

“I think they have, they burned maybe 80% less than OpenAI.”

“Microsoft probably be an 800 dollar stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve open AI Solely open AI and anthropics capacity instead of using them for their own products.”

“Anthropic probably starts generating cash this year if they are not already generating cash, which I think is probably the case.”

“I try to think in terms of that stack, but I also think about what's going on in the, probably the three most consequential companies today. NVIDIA, Anthropic, and Elon World, you know, all of his companies collectively.”

“Claude really is like a, and it really enables you To be an individual self-improver. It makes you very autonomous and like your ability is sort of like, it'll give you back whatever you put into it. If you put a lot of time and energy and effort into it.”

“Anthropic has half of what they need right now”

“Anthropic has something like 14 or fifteen million DAUs.”

“And if you think about how many coders there are in the world, twenty million, you've got a half a trillion dollar market just from coding alone.”

“There's like, 50 companies trying to do that, and they all have fallen away, and two or three have emerged at the top. And there's a lot of reasons to think they will continue to hold their position.”

“We actually, we had a look at the sixty billion dollar round, and we didn't do it. We didn't know the company as well, and we The gross margins were negative, and frankly, we hadn't seen coding explode the way it had.”

“Anthropic, if they had been as aggressive on compute as OpenAI had been, they would have run away with it.”

“There's so much zero-sum thinking, which is just like, okay, how do we cut up this pie, and they're gonna eat this much, and like, oh, no, no, no, no, no, Anthropic or whomever is gonna eat, 98% of the value, and they're gonna do all the drug discovery, and I …”

“Biggest impact of the models, the biggest monetization right now is probably not anthropic opening. It's the incremental gain that is happening for Google and meta.”

“I think OpenAI and Anthropic are clearly on the frontier. Who knows what's happening with Google and then Grok and Meta are chasing them. Meanwhile, the Chinese are very capable, very smart, and also definitely distilling these models to sort of stay about six…”

“Google already made a deal to sell, like, 20% of their TPUs to Anthropic.”

“Well, first we scavenge chips, and then we scavenge power for those chips. The idea is in both cases, I do not want to be bidding against Anthropic or of an AI for a complete capacity. I'm not going to win against them, and I don't want to. I want to be more c…”