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Blackwell

also referred to as: blackwells

includes Blackwell B300

15 statements across 5 episodes · 5 bullish · 3 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Sep 30, 2025 by Dylan Patel · said 22 times in 5 episodes since 2025 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Gavin Baker (16), Patrick O'Shaughnessy (2), Neil Movva (2), Gavin Uberti (1), Dylan Patel (1)

tap a year for its mentions
008215320252026episodesmentions
02320252026episodes it came up in
0031.56320252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 11 mentions in 3 episodes 4 per episode
2025 11 mentions in 2 episodes 6 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Blackwell, oldest first

Sep 30, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Patel: Blackwell manufacturing challenges slowed AI data center deployments
“Nvidia created Blackwell, they had a ton of manufacturing problems and challenges with it for their supply chain balance sheets went up for, you know, various companies in the supply chain are building servers and stuff, because they're trying to figure it out…”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 1:45:05 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nvidia's Rubin transition will be remarkably seamless compared to the Blackwell rollout
“Ruben is going to be such an easy, seamless transition relative to Blackwell”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 1:18:59 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Nvidia Blackwell chips will likely reach China, revitalizing its open-source ecosystem
“If Blackwell comes back to China, which it seems like it probably will happen, that will also be very good because then Chinese open source will be back.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 51:53 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Financial economics will dictate AI capital spending over hyperscaler prisoner's dilemmas
“But with Blackwell, and for sure with Rubin, economics are going to dominate the prisoner's dilemma from a decision making and spending perspective, just because the numbers are so big.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 25:32 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nvidia Blackwell will massively widen the AI gap between America and China
“The problem is Blackwell is going to come out now, and the gap between these American frontier labs and Chinese open source is going to blow out because of Blackwell.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 47:26 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
xAI will release the first frontier model trained on Nvidia Blackwell
“One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early, I think the first Blackwell model will come from XAI. And the reason for that is just, it's a, According to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 12:06 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 neutral
Insight
AI capital expenditure returns come exclusively from inference, not model training
“Those Blackwells are being used for training and there's no ROI on training. Training is you're making the model. The ROI comes from inference.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 37:31 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Nvidia's Blackwell transition is the most complex hardware shift in history
“A lot of different SKUs were canceled, and the reason for that is it was by far the most complex product transition we've ever gone through in technology.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 7:26 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
China will likely realize it desperately needs Nvidia Blackwell by late 2026
“And then geopolitically, China thought they had the leverage. They're gonna realize, oh, whoopsie daisy, we do need the Blackwells. And unfortunately, they'll probably, for them they'll probably realize that in late 26.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 48:12 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Jun 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Wachen: Colossus charges $12/hour for Blackwells as the only 20k-cluster provider
“Why is Colossus charging 12 dollars an hour for Blackwells? It's because they're the only place you can buy 20,000 of them at once, right?”
Rob Wachen Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 42:44 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best
Aug 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Wall Street models hyperscaler Blackwell compute monetizing at Ampere rates
“If you look at the amount of gigawatts that are supposed to come on, and consensus estimates for hyperscalers, they're effectively modeled, and these are gigawatts of Blackwell and Rubin. Rubin being NVIDIA's next chip, Blackwell being the current chip. They a…”
Gavin Baker Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 13:35 Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Aug 25, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nvidia Strategically Rations Chips to Prevent Deep-Pocketed Buyers From Gaining Power
“NVIDIA sees the, if they just let the most deep pockets buy all the chips that Maybe hurts them in the long term if that customer ends up accruing a lot of more power. They understand that compute is power today, and so they're quite strategic about how they a…”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 45:17 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
Aug 25, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Nvidia Blackwell Has 288GB of HBM but Only 500MB of SRAM
“Blackwell has 288 gigabytes of HBM capacity around the logic die, and the logic die itself maybe only has like 500 megabytes of SRAM. So it's possibly multiple orders of magnitude, three orders of magnitude difference in density for DRAM versus SRAM.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 26:04 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
Aug 25, 2026 neutral
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Movva: NVIDIA is producing 5 million Blackwell chips this year
“NVIDIA's pumping out five million Blackwell chips this year.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 1:04:57 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
Aug 25, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nvidia's BF16 Efficiency Barely Improves Across Hopper, Blackwell, and Rubin
“If you look at, you know, Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin, and you compare like for like, what is the performance per watt of a beefload-sixteen multiply? It hasn't improved all that much.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 1:16:40 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
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