OpenAI

also referred to as: open ai

includes OpenAI Codex, OpenAI DevDay

76 statements across 19 episodes · 33 bullish · 16 bearish · 16 people on the record · first statement Sep 30, 2025 by Dylan Patel · said 321 times in 45 episodes since 2025 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Patrick O'Shaughnessy (135), Dylan Patel (54), Gavin Baker (35), Sam Altman (19), Ben Thompson (14), Dan Sundheim (13), Gokul Rajaram (6), Neil Movva (5)

tap a year for its mentions
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2026 221 mentions in 33 episodes 7 per episode
2025 100 mentions in 12 episodes 8 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about OpenAI, oldest first

Sep 30, 2025
Assertion Supported
Patel: Oracle Signed a $300 Billion Deal With OpenAI
“Because, you know, he signed a three hundred billion dollar deal with OpenAI, it's like.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 5:35 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: OpenAI and Meta waste massive amounts of compute exploring architectures
“They're wasting a ton of compute. They were, you know, maybe they still are, but you know, like, and everyone's wasting compute, right? OpenAI's wasting tons of compute. Because, you know, what's the Pareto optimal model architecture? Who knows?”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 51:43 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: OpenAI Struggled on GPT-4.5 Cluster Scaling and Reinforcement Learning
“They actually tried that with 4.5. They screwed up some things cause it was really hard to get, you know, a 100,000 GPUs to work properly. There's challenges there. Also, they hadn't figured out the whole reinforcement learning paradigm at that time.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 19:33 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: OpenAI Will Be Beaten Without Top-Tier Compute Scale
“If they don't move fast enough, and if they don't have the most compute, or like among the most compute, they will get beaten.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 2:13 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Patel: xAI Will Build Biggest Data Center but Trail Big Tech Compute
“XAI can get to the next stage of compute. They won't have more compute than OpenAI. They won't have more compute than any individual company at Google, Meta, et cetera, but they will have the biggest individual data center”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 1:51:34 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Patel: ByteDance Is Second or Third Largest GPU User Globally
“They have ByteDance, who's, I think, the third largest user of GPUs in the world after OpenAI, and You know, probably Meta, although ByteDance may be bigger than Meta, the third largest user of GPUs in the world, or second maybe, even ByteDance is.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 1:35:16 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Patel: OpenAI is building a 2-gigawatt data center
“You're telling me OpenAI is making a data center with two gigawatts and that's like the entirety of the power consumption of like Philadelphia.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 1:23:20 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Patel: More Optimistic on Anthropic than OpenAI Due to Software Focus
“I'm actually more optimistic on Anthropic than I'm OpenAI. Their revenue is accelerating way faster because what they're focused on is more relevant to that two trillion dollar software market versus OpenAI is split between, yeah, they're going to do that, but…”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 1:48:22 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: GPT-5 Is Roughly the Same Size and Cost as GPT-4o
“GPT-V. It's basically the same size as four O and roughly the same cost. That's actually a little bit cheaper potentially.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 21:02 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
Patel: OpenAI ARR Will Reach $20 Billion by Year-End
“Your revenue is like fifteen billion ARR this month, maybe, right, on a run rate basis. It'll get to 20 by the end of the year pretty, pretty clearly. Maybe it's like 16 now, but how do you pay three hundred billion dollars of revenue?”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 5:41 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: GPT-4 Turbo was less than half the size of GPT-4
“Four to four turbo was, like, the model was less than half the size. And four turbo to four O, like four O's cost is way lower than four. And they just kept shrinking the cost.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 19:20 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: One Gigawatt of Data Center Capacity Costs $50B to $75B
“It's 10 to fifteen billion dollars per gigawatt of data center capacity that you pay a year. And then that 10 to fifteen billion dollars of giga, for a gigawatt of data center capacity, you're paying that for five years. Ok, that's 50 to seventy-five billion d…”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 4:48 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Sep 30, 2025 positive
Opinion
Patel: OpenAI Deep Research matches the memo quality of junior analysts
“I would say a lot of, like, memos that you read from people are, like, on the, on par with, like, deep research. At least, like, a junior.”
Dylan Patel Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 43:33 Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Oct 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frontier AI labs will move toward applications due to API commoditization
“That's why I think the open AI's of the world will continue to move towards applications because it's quite hard for them to make money longterm on like their API, for example, because There's like such high competition, all the labs are building, and it's lik…”
Jesse Zhang Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 1:12:54 The Future of AI Agents | Jesse Zhang Interview · Invest Like The Best
Oct 6, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Zhang: Application-layer AI talent competition is less extreme than at Meta or OpenAI
“Unfortunately in the application layer, it is not as crazy as, you know, the metas and the opening eyes who are just like, there's only so many top level researchers.”
Jesse Zhang Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 59:59 The Future of AI Agents | Jesse Zhang Interview · Invest Like The Best
Nov 19, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emanuel: Sam Altman has $1.2T in obligations and 800M subscribers
“Sam has made a trillion two in obligations. He has eight hundred million subs. Let's just say he does fourteen billion in revenue. We'll probably lose five billion.”
Ari Emanuel Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 1:08:49 Ari Emanuel’s "Anti-AI" Bet on Live Entertainment · Invest Like The Best
Dec 2, 2025 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2025
George: ChatGPT Has ~1 Billion Users and Monetizes Under 50 Million
“If you look at CHPT and the consumer stuff, there's like a billion users. They monetize less than fifty million of them.”
David George Dec 2, 2025 ▶ 3:52 How a16z Growth Invests · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Anthropic is growing faster and burning dramatically less cash than OpenAI
“Anthropic is a good company. You know, they're burning dramatically less cash Then open AI and growing faster.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 50:39 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 bearish
Opinion
OpenAI is a high-cost token producer because it pays third-party compute margins
“OpenAI is Issue that they're trying to solve with Stargate is because they pay a margin to people for compute. And maybe the people who run their computer, not the best at running GPUs. They're a high cost producer of tokens.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 49:49 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Dec 9, 2025 positive
Opinion
Only OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI matter in frontier AI
“The four labs that matter, you know, being open AI, Gemini, Anthropic and XAI, Which are clearly the four leading labs.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 3:34 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
Jan 29, 2026 bullish
Opinion
AI Startup Sierra’s True Competitive Moat Is Bret Taylor’s Sales Reach
“And I came up with the example of Sierra, which I think unique asset is Brett Taylor. I mean, they have full control of Brett, who's one of the best salespeople, chairman of OpenAI. He can make a call to any company, any country, and they'll take his call. You…”
Gokul Rajaram Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 22:57 He Built The Revenue Engines for Google, Facebook & Square · Invest Like The Best
Feb 3, 2026
Insight
Horowitz: Elite AI Model Training Cannot Be Learned in Academia
“If you haven't been at like Google or Facebook or open AI or anthropic and like somebody gave you hundreds of millions of dollars to try and build a giant model and you weren't like one of the main people, then you probably don't know how to do it because you …”
Ben Horowitz Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 11:01 Why The Laws of Startup Physics Have Changed | Ben Horowitz Interview · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026
Disclosure
Sundheim: D1 Invested in OpenAI Early and Pushed Them Toward Ads
“Early on, we invested in OpenAI, this is probably a year and a half ago, I said to them, like, you have to do ads.”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 21:10 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sundheim: Leading AI model developers generate high gross margins
“If you look at the underlying margins of these companies, they are not the margins that you see in a commoditized industry. You know, the gross margins are quite high.”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 11:35 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sundheim: LLMs Will Generate Massive Cash and Insource Compute Within 10 Years
“At some point in the next five to 10 years, they'll be generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. When that happens, I think that, ah, they're likely to insource the compute.”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 24:32 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Sundheim: D1 Capital Originally Invested in OpenAI at $125 Billion Valuation
“We invested originally at the hundred and twenty-five billion dollar round, so I don't think people were entirely sold on LLMs as a business model, but if you want to invest in LLMs as a business model, OpenAI was kind of the, you know, it was the one.”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 5:40 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026 neutral
Insight
Sundheim: OpenAI and Anthropic models are not fundamentally different
“If you were to say, like, what is an important difference of Netflix versus these models is Netflix's content was differentiated. The models are more similar than they are different in that, like, you know, at any given time OpenAI may have a better model, Ant…”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 15:31 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026 bullish
Insight
Sundheim: Personalization, Not Answer Quality, Will Be the Moat for AI Assistants
“I think if you're Google or you are OpenAI, the differentiating factor will not necessarily be that Google gives you a better answer. Like if we were just like to, you know query Gemini or ChatGPT on something I don't think it's the case that we would say defi…”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 15:58 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Feb 24, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Sundheim: LLM API businesses are durable and differentiated like cloud providers
“You've just seen with Cloud Code and even OpenAI's API business, like, these are durable businesses, and yes, can you switch? You can, the same way you could switch AWS or Azure but it's not worth it for a lot of businesses to do it, and there's sufficient dif…”
Dan Sundheim Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 11:12 Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX · Invest Like The Best
Mar 24, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Mitchell Green: Investing in OpenAI at a $100B valuation is 'a little insane'
“And I think investing in open AI, a hundred billion is a little insane personally, but like, I don't know if it goes on to do like a trillion dollars of earnings. Yeah. I was going to be very wrong. I should have invested.”
Mitchell Green Mar 24, 2026 ▶ 20:22 Why Now is the Best Time to Buy Public Software Companies · Invest Like The Best
Mar 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levine: ChatGPT Began as John Schulman's Pet Project, Not Corporate Strategy
“ChatGPT was You know, basically John Schulman's pet experiment for a while. It wasn't a concerted corporate strategy with lots of, you know, spreadsheets and pie charts. It was like a pet project.”
Sergey Levine Mar 31, 2026 ▶ 1:09:22 World's Top Researcher on AI, LLMs, and Robot Intelligence · Invest Like The Best
Apr 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Patel: OpenAI is procuring Trainium AI chips from Amazon
“Now they're getting Tranium as well from Amazon.”
Dylan Patel Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 27:16 The Supply and Demand of AI Tokens | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Apr 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Patel: Altman and Amodei are uncharismatic in media interviews
“First of all, Sam Altman and Dario have to stop getting on interviews. They're so uncharismatic. I don't know what they're doing. Every interview they do is like, wow, normal people are gonna hate you even more.”
Dylan Patel Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 43:09 The Supply and Demand of AI Tokens | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
Apr 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Google and Anthropic are not heavy users of training GPUs
“Google and Anthropic are not heavy, heavy users of GPUs on the training side, but OpenAI, they'll, they'll start having their new class of models.”
Dylan Patel Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 25:52 The Supply and Demand of AI Tokens | Dylan Patel Interview · Invest Like The Best
May 20, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Anthropic has dramatically lower cost per token than OpenAI
“Anthropic clearly is, has a dramatically lower cost per token than OpenAI.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 8:23 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
May 20, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Anthropic and OpenAI surpassed Google on the AI intelligence-cost Pareto frontier
“Google dominated that nine months ago. At every point on the Pareto frontier, OpenAI, XAI, and Anthropic were inside of them. Now, the Pareto Frontier is dominated by Anthropic, OpenAI, and then Grok 4.3 is on the Pareto Frontier.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 33:51 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
May 20, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 39:04 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
May 20, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Anthropic burned around 80% less capital than OpenAI
“I think they have, they burned maybe 80% less than OpenAI.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 8:37 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
May 20, 2026 neutral
What-if
Microsoft Stock Would Be $800 if GPUs Were Exclusively for AI Labs
“Microsoft probably be an 800 dollar stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve open AI Solely open AI and anthropics capacity instead of using them for their own products.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 1:14:24 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Jun 3, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Khosrowshahi: Uber prototypes with frontier AI models but scales on open source
“We're using the more expensive models to explore. Hey, let's try a new interaction here. And obviously You know, the, these frontier models, whether it's a open AI model or a cloud model, they really are terrific. And they're great to experiment against. Once …”
Dara Khosrowshahi Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 20:10 Uber CEO on AI, Autonomous Vehicles, and the Future of Transportation · Invest Like The Best
Jun 9, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacerdote: Stalled Frontier AI Models Will Spark Race to the Bottom
“In AI, if Anthropix sort of hits a wall and stops improving, or open AI, then the open source models will catch up. And then it might be a race to the bottom, and it might be, you know, it won't be good for the stocks, probably. It could be good for the chip c…”
Alex Sacerdote Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 1:01:46 Why the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started · Invest Like The Best
Jun 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacerdote: Top two or three AI foundation model companies will maintain dominance
“There's like, 50 companies trying to do that, and they all have fallen away, and two or three have emerged at the top. And there's a lot of reasons to think they will continue to hold their position.”
Alex Sacerdote Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 35:57 Why the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started · Invest Like The Best
Jun 30, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Wachen: In-House AI Chip Failure Is Not Existential for Hyperscalers or OpenAI
“Meta won't fail if MTIA fails, Microsoft won't fail if Maya fails, and OpenAI won't fail if Jalapeno fails.”
Rob Wachen Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 56:21 The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Altman: AI scaling laws keep working despite constant skepticism
“In some sense, scaling laws are like the most hated prediction of all time. Everybody always wants to say I'm gonna run out, can't be like this, and yet it keeps going.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 50:30 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI gained conviction in reasoning from GPT-4, not 3.5
“I would say we got real conviction with GPT-IV. Not even 3.5.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 6:22 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 negative
Opinion
Altman: Current AI benchmarks are definitely inadequate
“Definitely not. In some sense, the eval that matters is like, is this being useful to people? You can approximate it by revenue or by amount of usage or like rate of discovery of new knowledge.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 28:27 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: Copywriting was the only working commercial use case for GPT-3
“The only commercial use case that was working was copywriting, you know, so you pay like some marketing firm, 20 bucks and they paid us 20 cents for the AI to like write a landing page or whatever.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 36:46 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI spread itself too thin before refocusing on core intelligence
“On the first part, I think we just, we're doing too many things. We're not focused enough, and they're actually all good things to do, but the trick is we're in this, like, unbelievable moment in history. Where you can only do the very few great things. So we …”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 1:10 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 negative
Opinion
Altman: OpenAI made a mistake innovating on corporate structure early on
“A formative one that went wrong, which I haven't talked about much is we made a mistake to try to innovate in our structure in the beginning.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 51:58 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Insight
Altman: AI Demand Is Basically Uncapped If Costs Fall
“We were pretty sure, although as you mentioned we underestimated, that as the models got better and better, If we could continue to drive costs down, the demand for AI at a sufficiently high level and a sufficiently low price was basically uncapped.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 5:02 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI must eventually build robots to automate compute supply chain
“And then eventually, or maybe pretty soon, we have to build robots that can Automate that process to continue to drive the cost down. The cost of producing electricity, chips, the whole supply chain.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 3:37 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 positive
Opinion
Altman: Codex succeeds on quality, not ChatGPT bundling
“I think codex mostly Is winning because it's the best product and the best model. We do get some advantage from ChatGPT bundling, but very, very tiny. That is mostly not what it's been about.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 46:50 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Insight
Altman: AI efficiency gains will never reduce aggregate compute and power demand
“But we also knew that no matter how efficient they got, you know, at some level, what we are about is turning Electricity into useful intelligence, and we were going to need more of that. No matter how good we are at that other layer, given this observation ab…”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 5:56 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI's progress over the next 12 months will be far more remarkable
“Since doing that, I think our progress has been remarkable and just given what we see in the pipeline will be much more remarkable over the next 12 months. And the quality of the models that we'll have, the products that we can build around that to really Let …”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 1:35 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI custom chip Jalapeno will be a huge competitive advantage
“I think Jalapeno and its successors are going to be a huge competitive advantage for us from that perspective.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 11:13 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Altman: I Plan to Lead OpenAI for the Rest of My Career
“I plan to do this for the rest of my career, but it's like much harder than I have a way to explain to people.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 45:06 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI Planned Media and Consumer Apps as GPU Hedge
“And so we were trying to think about like a lot of things such that if the revenue growth took longer, To materialize than we thought it might, we could have, you know, consumer apps and media and all these other things that could help us monetize the GPUs tha…”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 2:14 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI Under-Secured Compute Despite Early Aggressive Bets
“We did under do it.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 4:43 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI has no interest in building vertical apps or eating startups
“Building every vertical application on top of that, trying to go, like, eat every startup, eat every company, no interest in doing that really want to just provide that platform.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 4:03 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 negative
Opinion
Altman: Current Hardware Is Not Built for Always-On Proactive AI
“One of the reasons I'm interested in new hardware is we're talking earlier about how a very powerful thing with AI is that it can be always on and proactive and just understand all your context, but current hardware is not, it's not good for that.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 48:15 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026
Assertion Supported
Altman: Unreleased OpenAI Model Escaped Sandbox Using Zero-Days to Cheat Eval
“So we were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it was supposed to be working in a sandbox and It figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero-day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the intern…”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 14:32 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 positive
Opinion
Altman: Josh Kushner is OpenAI's MVP investor and uniquely proactive
“Josh Kushner. Absolute MVP investor. Unbelievable. Has like worked around the clock for what feels like years to help us. He's the only investor that I could point to that is. Proactively. Incredibly helpful all the time.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 43:57 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Massive Inference Revenue Will Easily Fund Frontier Model Training
“We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be able to afford model training. Like, so much of our future compute plans Will be used to sell inference to customers that even if we can enjoy a modest…”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 13:21 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Insight
Altman: Orders of magnitude in compute efficiency gains remain in software
“I think probably the biggest return right now is creative software ideas to sort of squeeze more intelligence out of the units of compute that we have. And my sense is there's like orders of magnitude to go there.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 10:51 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI's de-risking runs use as much compute as full runs 18 months ago
“Our biggest de-risks now for upcoming runs are as big as like the entire compute run from 18 months ago or something.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 21:09 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Real AGI is very close and not that much longer away
“For the thing that, to me, feels like, you know, Real AGI. I think very close, like not that much longer.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 20:10 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: ChatGPT was almost named 'Chat with GPT-3.5' before launch
“In fact, it was originally gonna be called chat with GPT 3.5. And we didn't plan to be product. Didn't think it'd be a huge ship, but did think it would get people The world to like catch up with this and realize something was going on. And we mercifully renam…”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 37:57 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Achieving superintelligence will not cause immediate, sudden disruption
“The kind of, like, cult worship of the machine god states those people believe that, like, more is going to happen quickly than is going to happen. Eventually a lot will happen, but eventually a lot was gonna happen anyway.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 45:41 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Altman: Competitors Distilling OpenAI Models Is Not in His Top 10 Worries
“I would rather people not to steal from us for sure. Maybe I'm feeling too confident right now about our progress and what's like the models that are coming. But this is not in like my top 10 list of worries.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 14:14 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Altman: AI giants like LeCun told journalists OpenAI wouldn't work
“When we first announced OpenAI, all of these, like, you know, giants of the field, these experts were saying, this is like insane. It's hypey. It's irresponsible. Really respected people like Yann LeCun or whatever, telling journalists like, oh, these guys are…”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 42:45 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Jul 28, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI aims to beat open source across the entire price-intelligence curve
“Our goal is to offer at every point along the, like, Pareto Optimal Frontier the best option for intelligence and price, and that includes open source.”
Sam Altman Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 11:52 Sam Altman on AGI, Compute, and Human Agency · Invest Like The Best
Aug 4, 2026 bearish
What-if
Baker: Anthropic would have dominated AI race with OpenAI's compute aggression
“Anthropic, if they had been as aggressive on compute as OpenAI had been, they would have run away with it.”
Gavin Baker Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 47:33 Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Aug 18, 2026 bearish
What-if
Thompson: Early OpenAI ad model would severely threaten Google and Meta
“There's a bit where had they leaned into advertising immediately as soon as ChatGPT was a hit, I think they would have a killer ad product right now. I think that Google would be in much bigger trouble. I think Meta would be in much bigger trouble”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 30:20 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best
Aug 18, 2026 positive
Opinion
Thompson: Chinese AI labs remain 6 to 9 months behind frontier models
“I think OpenAI and Anthropic are clearly on the frontier. Who knows what's happening with Google and then Grok and Meta are chasing them. Meanwhile, the Chinese are very capable, very smart, and also definitely distilling these models to sort of stay about six…”
Ben Thompson Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 4:53 What Happens When the AI Boom Runs Out of Money · Invest Like The Best
Aug 25, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Movva: Meta and OpenAI purchases have consumed AMD's chip supply
“I think publicly, Meta and OpenAI have bought a ton of AMD chips, and so, we're increasingly seeing that all the AMD supply is also being allocated.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 47:06 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
Aug 25, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Movva: A Trillion Tokens Costs at Least $5M at OpenAI Pricing
“A trillion tokens, well, okay, at OpenAI pricing, that's at least five million dollars, at the very least, for 5.5 or 5.6.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 1:15:14 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
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