Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: Anthropic and OpenAI add more monthly revenue than tech giants
“Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David George: Anthropic and OpenAI combined run rate could hit $200B
“And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing two hundred billion of revenue run rate.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David George: AI market is not currently in a bubble
“I feel pretty confident saying that we're not in a bubble right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: AI model companies are adding more revenue than public software combined
“The model companies are adding more than the entire public software universe in terms of revenue added, you know, combined.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
George: Top AI IPOs will individually exceed all recent VC IPOs combined
“We actually did a similar analysis where we looked at all of the VC backed IPOs that happened over the last six years. And if you sum all of them up, they're A little over a trillion dollars. Like that's probably gonna be smaller than any of the three of the l…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: AI coding assistant Cursor has reached billions in revenue
“Cursor, as an example, is, you know, billions of dollars of revenue. And they're very small, and it's very early in their life.”
Assertion Supported
George: OpenAI and Anthropic added half of public software's 2025 net revenue
“Public software companies added forty six billion dollars of revenue in 20, 25. If you just add up OpenAI and Anthropic on their, on a run rate basis, they added almost half of that.”
Insight
George: Capital Directly Compounds Advantage for AI Labs
“But right now, especially with the labs for the first time, you know, in my career, you can take capital and throw it at a company and it compounds their advantage.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
George predicts AI wave will create over $25T in new market cap
“The last cycle created 25 trillion in market cap, new market cap, and a bunch of that went to the incumbents. But a lot of it went to startups and the new startups, and, you know, each one of these subsequent waves gets bigger than the prior one, and so, you k…”
Opinion
George: Harvey's early software usage was mediocre despite strong commercial buzz
“They did a really good job commercially early days. Like, because they were smart. They were res, there was like a research plus lawyer combo. You know, they got some momentum and some, you know, high profile law firms to sign up early days. But, you know, the…”
Insight
George: AI diffusion beyond coding will be slow because tasks lack verifiability
“Coding hit, but that's kind of a head fake, right? Like coding, coding is perfectly documented, right? So it has like perfect data. It's verifiable and it's simulatable, right? And so like most tasks in business do not share those three attributes. And so, you…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
George predicts consumer AI's final form will be proactive agents, not chatbots
“The end use case for consumers is not going to be a chatbot interface. Like that's the skeuomorphic version. We're going to have a native version. It's going to be proactive. It's going to do work on our behalf.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2036
George predicts robotics will surpass language AI categories within ten years
“We are nowhere on robotics, but I think robotics is going to be bigger than the language stuff. And I think it's going to happen in the next 10 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The AI Market Will Be Non-Zero-Sum Across Labs, Open Source, and Apps
“Like, this is not an or thing. It's an and thing, right? Like, this is an and thing. Frontier's gonna work really well. Like, N minus one models are gonna work really well. Open source is gonna work really well. There's gonna be a bunch of application companie…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Top a16z Portfolio Engineers Now Write Over 90% of Code With AI
“Our most sophisticated engineers, you know, were doing whatever, 20% of their code, you know, with AI to like, you know, whatever, 90 plus.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Compute Capacity Will Remain Massively Undersupplied Through 2028
“So it seems more likely than given that fact pattern, if you go back to just the sort of macro situation that we're in, that we're, we under build on the supply side. For like through 28. And by the way, like there's no capacity available with all the forecast…”
Opinion
George: Corporate layoffs reflect trimming fat, not AI efficiency gains
“What's happening with some of the layoff things that we're seeing is kind of like trimming of previous fat. Like I don't think it's actually efficiency gains.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: Fewer than five companies currently offer frontier AI models
“Right now the number is smaller. It's not five. There's a tremendous amount of inelasticity for frontier intelligence right now.”
Assertion Supported
George: Scaled data center capacity unavailable until late 2028 or early 2029
“You can't get data center capacity at scale until late 28, early 29 right now, and that's just a fact.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
George: AI market will remain supply-constrained rather than bubble
“But I think it's more likely we remain supply constrained for the next three years than then we end up in bubble territory.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David George: Top AI companies outperform SaaS while spending less on S&M
“The best AI companies that are growing the fastest are not the ones spending the most amount of money on sales and marketing, and they're spending less money on sales and marketing than their SaaS counterparts. And yet they're growing much, much faster.”
Insight
George: Exceptionally high gross margins in AI pitches trigger a16z skepticism
“So in an odd way, if we see an AI pitch and the gross margins are super high, we're a little bit skeptical because that may mean that the AI features are not actually what is being bought or used by the customers.”
Insight
George: High ARR per employee in AI is driven by demand outpacing hiring
“I would say my observation from our companies, even the AI native ones is they run leaner. Partially because they've just grown so quickly and the demand is so strong. I wouldn't say yet we're at the point where companies have fully reimagined the way they run…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David George: AI will be the biggest model buster of his career
“Most importantly, we think that AI is going to be, you know, the biggest model buster that I've seen in my career, certainly.”
