The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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Next up (66)
17 days left 2026-09-30
109 days left 2026-12-31
David George: AI model companies will add 75-80% of public software's net revenue in 2026
“And I think if you were to do that same comparison for 2026, all of the entire public software industry, I mean, SAP, this is not just SaaS, like including SAP and older software companies. I think the AI companies, the model companies will be something like 7…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
US out-of-pocket health spending projected to reach $800B by 2026
“There's a recent report estimating nationwide out-of-pocket spending on health, i.e. Not reimbursed by insurance, is set to hit almost five hundred billion in the U.S. In 2021 and projected to grow to about eight hundred billion by 2026.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
168 days left 2027-02-28
Long: AI cyberattacks will disable critical infrastructure within two years
“I think what I'm really worried about is that when you're going to see this actually transition to people being actively hurt you know, hospitals being taken down, energy systems taken offline, other things like that. Obviously we've had cases of that already …”
305 days left 2027-07-15
308 days left 2027-07-18
444 days left 2027-12-01
462 days left 2027-12-19
474 days left 2027-12-31
505 days left 2028-01-31
Younis: Fully autonomous cars will be available at dealerships by 2028
“And I think when the CT-Six launches with Super Cruise or the Tesla Autopilot, and then maybe 10 years from now we'll wake up and you have that option to go to the dealership and buy a car that does everything we think autonomy does.”
550 days left 2028-03-16
634 days left 2028-06-08
653 days left 2028-06-27
Sinofsky: Best-selling novels will be AI-generated within a few years
“Absolutely. A hundred percent. A hundred, and I think, I don't think Stephen King is going to do that, and, but I think there'll be some new writer who will probably write it under a pseudonym, and a year after the novel is written and has been made into a mov…”
707 days left 2028-08-20
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
749 days left 2028-10-01
Andreessen: Producing full-length movies on laptops will be viable within five years
“It ought to be possible here within a couple years you know, to make entire full-length movies, you know, basically on your laptop, completely produced, you know, with, like, whatever actors superimposed into the thing, like, a couple years I don't know, I'd s…”
778 days left 2028-10-30
838 days left 2028-12-29
Andreessen: Wearable sensors will predict heart attacks within 5 to 10 years
“I think we'll have a full complement of medical grade sensors on, you know, on our bodies in a way that we have chosen to over the next five or 10 years. And I think we're, I think we'll get to the point where we're gonna be able to do things like predict hear…”
840 days left 2028-12-31
860 days left 2029-01-20
860 days left 2029-01-20
899 days left 2029-02-28
Dixon: Major AI copyright rulings will take three to five years
“Similar thing with like New York times open AI lawsuit, you know, you're going to have potentially copyright important decisions that have effects on huge economic effects. Decided by judges three to five years from now who are interpreting, you know, hundred …”
1037 days left 2029-07-16
1206 days left 2030-01-01
Chen: Bioengineered smart clothing will track health and guide runners by 2030
“This shirt is made out of spider silk, engineered by DNA. It's got sensors and actuators right in it, so the sensors pick up her health stats like temperature and EKG and heart rate, and it's got actuators so it can bumper on the wrists, right?”
1481 days left 2030-10-03
1509 days left 2030-10-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Koller: Insitro will deliver AI-discovered medicines to patients by 2030
“The hope is that by the end of the Of this decade, we will have built this process, we will have run through it a number of times, we will have delivered some medicines to patients in our first tranche of indications, but then we will have learned enough from …”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1638 days left 2031-03-09
2666 days left 2033-12-31
2689 days left 2034-01-23
3034 days left 2035-01-03
3076 days left 2035-02-14
3235 days left 2035-07-23
3320 days left 2035-10-16
3373 days left 2035-12-08
3530 days left 2036-05-13
3650 days left 2036-09-10
3819 days left 2037-02-26
Hastings: Linear TV will disappear completely in 10 to 20 years
“Linear TV, 1020 years from now, will disappear. It will be, once in a while, you'll see it in a hotel, like where you see a fixed-line phone, but other than that, you know, you're not gonna see it, and everyone around the world will be doing internet video as …”
4127 days left 2037-12-31
4194 days left 2038-03-08
Leibert: Mainframes will remain core enterprise infrastructure for 20 to 30 years
“So I think we're not going to see a rip and replace. I think we're going to see more and more systems built around the old systems. And for some of the core infrastructure, I think even in 20 or 30 years, we'll still have mainframes.”
4290 days left 2038-06-12
4490 days left 2038-12-29
Andreessen: Winning tech companies in 20 years will be 100x larger than Google
“The winning companies, you know, the winning entrepreneurial companies 20 years from now that win are going to be Staggeringly large. Like, they're going to be like, I don't know, 10 or a hundred times the size of Google and Facebook.”
4506 days left 2039-01-14
Viable animal-to-human organ xenotransplantation will arrive within 10 to 20 years
“I think a couple of things will likely come. I think xenotransplantation, I mean, which has been in and out and worked on. And what's interesting is every one of these comes up and down. So, you know, gene therapies, cell therapies popped up in the nineties, k…”
4539 days left 2039-02-16
5396 days left 2041-06-22
Jake Paul predicts he will enter politics within 10 to 15 years
“I would probably say, yeah, the most like obvious one that I'm like super passionate about is, is definitely politics. And that seems to, you know, grow as I get older as well because of what Jeff was saying is like, how do I, okay, we have the money, we have …”
6726 days left 2045-02-11
Butterfield: Heavy email usage will continue for at least 30-40 years
“And I want to just stress, because we get this in headlines quite a bit, that we want to be an email killer. Not going away. We've got, you know, at least three or four decades left of heavy email uses because it is lowest common denominator, and I mean that i…”
7062 days left 2046-01-13
Butterfield: Email will survive for at least three to four decades
“Email crosses organizational boundaries very well. It's how we set up this conversation. It's how people like us will set up conversations like this 10 years from now in the future. And internet, I mean, sorry, email will probably be around You know, three, fo…”
7473 days left 2047-02-28
7547 days left 2047-05-13
Rigetti: Quantum computers capable of breaking RSA encryption are 20-30 years away
“We're probably 20 to 30 years away from having a machine that would really be able to run Shore's algorithm on Wall Street. On practically relevant problem sizes. At some point in the future, quantum computers will be able to crack RSA encryption.”
7763 days left 2047-12-15
7792 days left 2048-01-13
8138 days left 2048-12-24
10486 days left 2055-05-30
10671 days left 2055-12-01
10701 days left 2055-12-31
13939 days left 2064-11-11
Andreessen: Future top tech companies will almost certainly be new startups
“The expectation of Detroit is that 50 years from now the three big car companies will be Ford, GM, and Chrysler, right? The expectation of Silicon Valley is the opposite. Like we don't know who the big three tech companies are going to be, but they're almost c…”
14911 days left 2067-07-11
15118 days left 2068-02-03
15394 days left 2068-11-05
Akella: Total factory job replacement by robots is multiple lifetimes away
“So if you do this math and you take the three forty million, roughly divided by six jobs per, you're looking at sixty million robots before you can wipe out all of mankind in any production facility. It ain't gonna happen in my lifetime. I don't see it happeni…”
Due for another look (2)
Evans: Chinese smartphone makers lack distribution to enter the US market
“There's a bunch of Chinese people who are making very interesting, well-designed phones, but they are, don't, they don't have global distribution, they don't have the ability to come to market in the US for the next couple of years”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Wolf: Future wearables will predict illnesses before patients feel any symptoms
“These wearable devices are gonna predict that you're getting sick before you even start feeling symptoms and know.”
Boneh: An operating quantum computer will likely be built within his lifetime
“I would speculate that in my lifetime, We'll probably see some sort of a, of operating quantum computer.”
Sramek: California Forever city is designed for up to 400,000 residents
“And then imagine that it was a city for up to 400,000 people that was entitled and approved at once, and so you knew that for the next you knew that for the next 30 years, if this office is going to work and you'll be able to hire talent there, there'll be eno…”
Aviation could account for 50% of global CO2 emissions by 2050
“But our own industry projections are that by 20 50, that's going to be anywhere up to 50% of all CO two emissions everywhere.”
Friedrich: Capping climate change under 2C by 2050 impossible without reduced meat intake
“According to Chatham House, the foremost think tank in Europe, it's a literal and scientific impossibility that we keep climate change under two degrees Celsius by 20 50. Unless meat consumption goes down, and right now it's going up.”
Chen: Bloomberg forecasts EV sales will match gas cars by 2038
“Bloomberg is forecasting, 2038 as the year where electric cars reach parity in terms of sales with gas burning cars, and then they never look back. That will be the year of peak gas car production, 2038.”
Andreessen: Global smartphone adoption will soon reach 6 to 7 billion people
“We're at the point now, three billion smartphones on its way to six, seven billion on the planet. We're going to be able to connect everybody. We're going to be able to get, over time, we're going to be able to get everybody all the things that I went through,…”
Tseng: Shield AI Will License AI Pilots to Defense Hardware Makers
“When we thought about the next 10 years, the question was, like, is the future really about Shield AI building the world's best AI pilot, or is it about making a contribution to the industrial base so that, you know, everybody that's building these systems You…”
Pande: AI digital human models will enter clinical practice in 10 years
“And this could easily take 10 years before we start putting these things into the clinic. But I think it will happen, 10 years, a lot can happen in 10 years.”
Chokshi: 65+ Population Will Double Over Next 15 Years
“In fact, the over-sixty-five-year-old population is doubling over just the next decade and a half or so”
Tan: BPO market will grow from $300B today to $500B by 2030
“So the industry is valued at three hundred billion today with expectations to grow to over five hundred billion by 2030.”
Freescale: Electronics and software will be 50% of car costs by 2030
“Freescale, a semiconductor company, has already forecast that by 2030, 50% of the total cost of manufacturing a car will go to electronics and software providers as opposed to the traditional metal class rubber providers.”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow non-filmmakers to produce full feature films
“In this last couple weeks with the new version of Sora and a lot of these other new things that are coming out, AI is going to make a whole new kind of filmmaker possible to exist for the first time, which is the filmmaker with no visual skill, right, or acces…”
Keith Rabois predicts Donald Trump will replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
“He will replace Powell at some point.”
Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees
“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”
Other US states will not replicate Illinois' AI mental health therapy ban
“I don't expect we'll see the other states go in the direction of Illinois, partially because it's just so hard to regulate.”
Gur: Scaling AI models will enable interactive playable games
“I think what we all agree is that we're very excited about the net new use cases, recreational, you know, image generation, like people just like having fun with it, and that becoming like now video, that becoming maybe like short playable games or whatever, l…”
Bry Predicts US Adversaries Will Exploit Low-Cost Autonomous Drones
“The possibility of building very low-cost systems that are very capable and capable of delivering strikes or capable of maintaining surveillance is, is very real, and our adversaries are likely to take advantage of it.”
Chen: Smart toilets in the 2030s will monitor health via urine analysis
“Now, it doesn't look like it's changed much, but like most other things in her house, this has become a smart toilet. It measures 10 properties of her urine, including glucose, and it looks for health problems before they become actual health problems.”
Chen: Custom apparel design research will be automated within hours by 2030s
“In the 20 thirties, this is going to be automated with software in a matter of hours.”
Kirwin: Future Pandemic and Immigration Policies Will Be Tested in Multi-Agent Virtual Simulations
“Well, when you have a multi-agent simulation, when we think about the next pandemic response or, you know, immigration policies and how those impact a civilization we're gonna be testing these in a virtual environment with these agents who can interact with ea…”
Ludwig: Commercial driverless trucks are at most a few years away
“To be honest, it's not long. We're talking a few years and I think on the long end,”
Cooper: Startups will continue staying private 10 to 12 years before IPO
“I think the other phenomenon we've seen, which I think is going to continue, is this idea of companies staying private much longer. And so it used to be that companies would go public six, six and a half years after they were started. Now it's 1012 years. I do…”