Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Opinion
CCP Launders Anti-Data Center Campaigns Through TikTok, Asserts Gavin Baker
“Like there is an organized CCP funded campaign. I think against data centers here in America. Like I think a lot of it gets laundered through TikTok and it's just tragic because the other thing that's happening is this is re-industrializing America.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Starship Reusability Drops Orbital Compute Launch Costs Under $1B per Gigawatt
“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Opinion
Microsoft Failed to Build Competitive In-House Frontier AI Models
“They clearly tried to make a frontier model. They failed. You know, Satya said, we're gonna have our own models that are very competitive. Like, I think he said that 18 months ago. They don't have their own models that are competitive.”
Opinion
Baker: Artificial intelligence is not currently in a financial bubble
“I do not believe we're in an AI bubble today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Unlike 2000 dark fiber, no dark GPUs exist today
“At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid In America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Larry Page said he would risk bankruptcy to win AI race
“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”
Insight
Baker: Software companies cannot succeed in AI without margin pressure
“It is definitionally impossible, given what we just discussed, to succeed in AI without gross margin pressure, and I do not know why they have concerns, because we have an existence proof that a software company can deal well with declining margins in Microsof…”
Opinion
Baker: Chinese open-source AI helps US firms catch leading frontier labs
“In a strange way, the Chinese open source model ecosystem is a godsend to any American company that's trying to catch those four leading labs.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: GPT-V is not evidence that AI scaling laws are ending
“GPT-V is a smaller model. It was not designed to be better. It was designed to be more economical for OpenAI and Microsoft to run. Any reference to GPT-V and scaling loss is crazy.”
Opinion
Baker: Debate between humanoid and non-humanoid robots is over
“Is it going to be humanoids or not humanoids? I think that debate is over because humanoids can kind of learn, you know, from watching YouTube videos, and then it's easier for a human being you know, to put on a suit and show the robot how to do it.”
Disclosure
Tech Founders Reported No Deteriorating Business Metrics in July and August
“My standard question is, can you tell me one quantitative data point in your business that's getting worse? Just one. That's my standard question, and it's at least in July and August, I haven't been able to find a single person.”
Opinion
AI Adoption Accelerated Across OpenAI, Open Source, and Grok in Summer
“Now, if we're being honest, you know, Anthropic is you know, in a quiet period, so maybe they've slowed down a little bit, but I do think the rest of the world has accelerated, you know, OpenAI is clearly accelerated. Open source, I think, has accelerated more…”
Opinion
Anthropic Cleaned Up Accounting to Make Revenue Comparable to OpenAI
“If you're anthropic, one, I think they probably trued up and cleaned up some accounting. You would, you'd rather do that. So you rebased and now you're comparable to open AI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anthropic Asks Candidates If They Are Fine With Equity Going to Zero
“Anthropic is now in their culture interviews saying, how would you feel if the equity went to zero? Because we're looking for people who are mission aligned.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frontier AI Labs Will Not Generate Free Cash Flow Anytime Soon
“They, I, for sure, I don't think they will generate free cash flow anytime soon. I think they're gonna generate a lot of operating cash flow, and then they'll use that to buy a lot of, you know, GPUs XPUs, whatever, whatever I'm gonna call them.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nebius and CoreWeave Compute Payback Periods Are Nine to Ten Months
“We calculate, you know, Nebius and Corweave both gave some interesting disclosures. But you can kind of get to a nine to 10 month payback for Nebius”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
SpaceX Achieves Sub-10-Month Compute Payback on Large Rapidly Built Clusters
“And then SpaceX, because they build these really big clusters, and I think a really important point is they bring them on fast. They have an even faster payback, and they can monetize it, you know, higher”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
American Open-Source AI Led by NVIDIA Will Reach Near-Frontier Capabilities
“I do think you're going to see American open source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier.”
Insight
Enterprise AI Providers Must Vertically Integrate Compute to Be Low-Cost
“You're just simply not going to be the low cost provider. If you're not vertically integrated, if you don't own your own compute over the very long. Long-term.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Google's TPU makes it Nvidia's biggest AI chip competitor
“NVIDIA's biggest competitor, it's not AMD, it's not Broadcom you know, it's certainly not Marvell. It's not Intel. It's Google. And more specifically, it is Google, because Google owns the TPU chip.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI may be a sustaining innovation for Big Tech
“I think there's reasonable arguments that AI could be a sustaining innovation because the raw ingredients of kind of data, you know, the capital to buy compute and distribution, which is what you need. All of the big you know, today's biggest tech companies ha…”
Opinion
Baker: ChatGPT was a 'Pearl Harbor' moment for Google
“No, to me, ChatGPT was Pearl Harbor for Google, and we're going to see how they responded, and they're slowly starting to respond.”
Gavin Baker