Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from the a16z Podcast: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

6,975 assertions5,285 insights2,855 predictions1,871 opinions1,082 disclosures136 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Karp: Displacing jobs without supporting defense will lead to tech nationalization
“If Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job, Meaning primarily democratic shaped people met whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are almost elite who vote for one par…”
Alex Karp Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 10:49 Palantir CEO on Iran, AI Weapons and American Domination | a16z American Dynamism Summit
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Acharya: A single individual will eventually build a $100 billion revenue company
“I think that there are businesses that will be built by, you know, a hundred billion revenue, one person.”
Anish Acharya Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 42:19 Why Creativity Will Matter More Than Code | Kevin Rose and Anish Acharya
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: US institutions recruit African immigrants to avoid hiring African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true, they're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans because they still count as black.”
Marc Andreessen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 27:27 Marc Andreessen: The US is in a AI Arms Race & It Decides The World's Future
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will drive global professional wages toward $20K equilibrium
“If you've got, let's say, a lawyer who's making 200 K a year in the US or a doctor in the West, and then you've got somebody from the Philippines or India or anywhere in the world who's making currently 2000 dollars a year, maybe the converged wage with AI plu…”
Balaji Srinivasan Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 1:08:28 Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
Opinion
Burgum: Losing AI race to China is existential threat, not climate change
“The existential threat is not a degree of temperature change in 2100. The existential threat was Iran getting a nuclear weapon, ah, and losing the AI arms race to China. Those are the two top order bits in terms of priorities.”
Doug Burgum Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 11:58 Powering the Next Big Things
Opinion
Horowitz: Donald Trump is the right choice for startups and Little Tech
“For a little tech we think Donald Trump is actually the right choice”
Ben Horowitz Jul 16, 2024 ▶ 0:29 Trump Vs. Biden: Tech Policy

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Moore: Midjourney and Character.ai launched before ChatGPT in 2022
“Actually, Midjourney and Character AI both came out before ChatGBT, which I think a lot of people don't know, but there was maybe these early niche communities of early adopters that were using both of those products in the summer and the fall of twenty-twenty…”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 3:13 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Patel: NVIDIA will hold over $100B in cash by late 2025
“The cash on their balance sheet keeps growing, and they're gonna have north of a hundred billion dollars of cash on their balance sheet by the end of this year, I think.”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 57:56 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
Assertion Supported
Arzón has completed 50- and 100-mile ultramarathons
“I started doing ultra marathons, so 50, hundred mile ultra marathons, and I found my healing.”
Robin Arzón Jul 13, 2023 ▶ 4:17 More Than a Game: Why Are We Obsessed With Sports?
Assertion Contradicted
Jake Paul claims his debut boxing match was history's most-viewed amateur event
“This boxing match was the most viewed amateur event ever.”
Jake Paul Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 7:16 Jake Paul on Going From YouTube to Boxing to Investing | a16z ft. Anti Fund

Open predictions the full timeline →

17days Rowan: Apollo will expand daily valuations across entire credit business by September Marc Rowan · prediction date: 2026-09-30 109days David George: AI model companies will add 75-80% of public software's net revenue in 2026 David George · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Keith Rabois predicts 4% US GDP growth will render national debt irrelevant Keith Rabois · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Patel: Hyperscaler CapEx will reach $450B-$500B next year Dylan Patel · prediction date: 2026-12-31

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Dwarkesh Patel 1 48 8 0 0 100%
Deb Liu 2 25 8 0 0 100%
Michael Rogers 1 23 8 0 0 100%
Surya Ganguli 1 10 7 0 0 100%
Kate Darling 1 21 7 0 0 100%
Kim Zetter 1 13 7 0 0 100%
Jason Mars 1 13 7 0 0 100%
Karen X. Cheng 2 32 6 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“There's, there's been this correlation between the number of folks at a company and the output from the company Uh, for, you know, decades and decades. I think that basically broke the first week of…”

“by 2011, 20 12, we were realizing that many of the firms that we were buying from were eventually going to want to run their own streaming service, and that we had, we did not have a reliable supply,…”

“for Google, Android is a tactic, and cloud is a strategy, whereas for Apple, the device is a strategy, and the cloud is a tactic. The cloud is a feature of the core strategy, whereas for Google, the…”

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