why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Ganguli: Specialized Models Beat Fine-Tuned Foundation Models for Specific Tasks
“You really, I think you're best off with a specialized model trained on the data that's very relevant to the thing, the task you want to solve. Your second best bet is to start with a foundation model that understands the broad space and fine tune it. Again, o…”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: FDA-approved drugs target only 800 of roughly 20,000 human genes
“FDA approved drugs they target only 800 of the 20,000 known genes that we have, 20 to 25,000 known genes that we have.”
Insight
Ganguli: Evolutionary robustness proves low-dimensional structure controls biological function
“Biological systems have survived for almost four billion years of evolution. They've tolerated all sorts of insults, competition, and so forth, so they're extremely robust. Because they're robust, their function can't depend on all of the details. That means t…”
Insight
Ganguli: ESMFold proves language models can learn protein structure from sequences
“I was actually really impressed by ESM fold, this average scale modeling where you could kind of do the same thing that you do for language, but do it for sequences. And then you learn representations that know about the structure of proteins.”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: ESM-3 model trained on 2.8 billion amino acid sequences
“ESM-III with evolutionary scale modeling did the same language modeling, but now on amino acid sequences of about 2.8 billion sequences, right?”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: Bringing a drug to market costs $2.5B and takes 10–15 years
“The cost of drug design, I mean, I know in the industry this is well known, but it's worth, worth emphasizing, it's 2.5 billion dollars per drug in 10 to 15 years, right?”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: 90% of drug candidates fail to achieve FDA approval
“90% of drug candidates don't get FDA approval.”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: Drug output per billion dollars of R&D halves every nine years
“There's this law that the number of drugs brought to market per billion dollar spend is going down by half every nine years, right?”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: 80% of clinical trials fail to meet enrollment targets
“Like, 80% of clinical trials just fail to meet enrollment targets, right?”
Assertion Supported
Ganguli: Protein Data Bank contains roughly 200,000 solved structures
“We have about 200,000 or so solved protein structures in the protein data bank.”