The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,855 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 166 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Karp: Displacing jobs without supporting defense will lead to tech nationalization
“If Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job, Meaning primarily democratic shaped people met whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are almost elite who vote for one par…”
Acharya: A single individual will eventually build a $100 billion revenue company
“I think that there are businesses that will be built by, you know, a hundred billion revenue, one person.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will drive global professional wages toward $20K equilibrium
“If you've got, let's say, a lawyer who's making 200 K a year in the US or a doctor in the West, and then you've got somebody from the Philippines or India or anywhere in the world who's making currently 2000 dollars a year, maybe the converged wage with AI plu…”
Andreessen: Automated and AI-augmented warfare will make conflict much safer
“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”
Harari: Superior algorithms will render democracy and free markets completely obsolete
“And once you have an external entity, An algorithm that knows me better than I know myself. This is the real turning point. This is the point when individualism as we've known, it doesn't make any sense when democracy in the free market become completely obsol…”
Chen: Deep learning will outperform trained radiologists within five years
“It takes five years to train a radiologist, and in five years, deep learning will get better results than a trained radiologist, so we should stop training them right now.”
Paul Krugman predicts most crypto projects will look like Pets.com by 2033
“My guess is, however, that I think I don't actually believe that we're at the dawn of a new age. I actually believe that we're at the that that most of this 10 years back, 15 years, 15 years from now, it will look a lot like Pets.com.”
Marc Rowan predicts disastrous returns for private equity enterprise software deals
“I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous. Because so much of exposure is to enterprise software, and this does not mean that enterprise software companies are going out of business. Far from it. It means that the prosp…”
Isaacman: NASA astronauts will build President Trump's moon base
“When we return to the moon, America will not look down on the prime lunar real estate while our rivals occupy it. NASA astronauts will be on the surface, building President Trump's moon base, and we will realize the scientific, economic, and national security …”
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase and MicroStrategy will likely be seized
“Like, will all the centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase's servers, Sailor servers, et cetera, get seized? I think it's quite likely. I think it eventually gets seized in some exigent circumstance.”
Epoch AI: Human-level AI means 30% GDP growth or human extinction
“Assuming in the next 10 years we get AI that is capable of doing any remote job as well as any human. I think, you know, 30% GDP growth seems like a lower bound on something that's reasonable. Assuming you get, this is a big assumption that a lot of people are…”
Adam D'Angelo: LLMs will perform all human tasks cheaper within 5-15 years
“I do think at some point you get to LMs can, they can do Everything, every single thing a human can do for cheaper. Like, I don't see a reason why we don't eventually get there. That may take five, 1015 years.”
Masad: Laypersons will soon match senior Google software engineers via AI
“I think that the lay person will be as good as a what a senior software engineer that works at Google is today. So I think that's happening very soon.”
Keith Rabois predicts ChatGPT will become a multi-trillion dollar monopoly
“I think ChatGBT becomes a monopoly. It's the fastest growing consumer product of all time. It is transforming how everybody, every normal person basically does their work, runs their life. And so that product alone is a several trillion dollar company.”
Altman: Society will deem AI training fair use but create IP licensing models
“So like, you'll see this continue to move, but forced guests from the position we're in today, I would say that society decides training is fair use, but There's a new model for generating content in the style of or with the IPF or something else.”
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Acharya: Single-person $100M run-rate companies are coming or already exist
“The like single person, a hundred million run rate company is coming, or maybe it's already here.”
Patel: Intel faces bankruptcy without massive cash infusion or 50% layoffs
“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
Sivulka: AI agents will contribute over 50% of global GDP within a decade
“One of my big predictions is that over 50% of the global GDP will be contributed by AI agents sometime in the next decade.”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Horowitz: AI economic value will accrue to tools, not base models
“The actual layer where the value is gonna crew is gonna be like tools, orchestration, that kind of thing, because you can just plug in whatever the best model is at the time. Whereas the models are gonna be competing, you know, in a death battle with each othe…”
Flanagan: The AI platform shift favors incumbents over standalone point solutions
“And we've seen like AI may be one of the few platform shifts that actually skews towards the monopolies and conglomerates versus like these individual Companies who just get sucked up and there are features of these existing platforms that get kind of skews to…”
Power: U.S. would take 5 years to rebuild exhausted ballistics inventory
“But if we have one conflict with China where we expand most of our ballistics inventory, We might not be able to remake it for like five years. Then we're basically standing around, you know, with our hands tied behind our backs.”
Strange: Nearly every company will become a financial services company
“And that's because in the not too distant future, nearly every company will be a financial services company and get a significant portion of their revenue from financial services.”
Allison: Maintaining current US-China policies will likely result in war
“Business as usual in the relationship between the US and China will likely produce history as usual.”
Harari: Corporations and governments will soon understand individuals better than themselves
“What we will see with regard to the individual is that at a certain point, external entities, whether it's corporations or whether it's governments, they will have enough data, especially biometric data, and enough computing power to be able to understand me b…”
Krugman: Significant probability Bitcoin's value eventually drops to zero
“Now, I'm not a hundred percent sure of that, but maybe, ah, ah, but I think that there's a certainly a, I would say a quite significant probability that the whole thing just drops to zero, ah, because I have not yet seen any reason why this has to be a valuabl…”
Pande: Cancer could easily not exist in 10 years
“Cancer could easily just not exist in 10 years, and that's due to this change in how we think about things, and there's all these things on the back end.”
Gaybrick: Global Software Engineers Will Increase Despite AI Efficiencies
“And so I think there will be more software engineers in the world.
we will need few of that, fewer of them to do the things we're already doing.”
Massa: AI will likely be capable of CEO roles by 2035
“Is, is AI going to be able to do this job, like even the CEO job or jobs where the leadership is? And the answer honestly is probably yes. Like in 2035 with a rate of improvement, it will be able to do so.”
David George: Anthropic and OpenAI combined run rate could hit $200B
“And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing two hundred billion of revenue run rate.”
George: Top AI IPOs will individually exceed all recent VC IPOs combined
“We actually did a similar analysis where we looked at all of the VC backed IPOs that happened over the last six years. And if you sum all of them up, they're A little over a trillion dollars. Like that's probably gonna be smaller than any of the three of the l…”
Marc Rowan predicts blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar decline from AI
“What I've said previously is I think we're going to see a little bit of blue collar ascendancy and white collar decline.”
Andreessen: Coder role will disappear within 10 to 20 years
“I think it's entirely possible that we're sitting here in 10 years, you know, in 20 years or whatever, and like the, you know, the job of coder is gone, but you have this just, you know, extraordinary number of builders running around.”
Andreessen: Europe will fall further behind US by restricting AI
“Europe is, is going to run the opposite, you know, test, which is they're going to try to prevent all this from happening, and again, I think the data's already in there which is they're, you know, they're, they've been falling very badly behind economically, …”
Horowitz predicts AI will cure cancer, end traffic deaths, and eliminate poverty
“Not just we can, we're gonna end traffic deaths. We're gonna cure cancer. We'll, we're gonna end poverty, as we know it.”
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before end of Trump's term
“NASA has stated we will achieve the national imperative to return, ah, to the moon and establish an enduring presence before the end of President Trump's term.”
Levie: AI code generation will increase software complexity and engineering jobs
“The funniest concept that the more code we write, the less we would need engineers would be the opposite because now your systems are even more complex than before, which means that you're going to be running into even more challenges of when you need to do a …”
Jessie Genet: AI will reverse declining global fertility rates
“AI will be a dawn of a reversal in that fertility rate decline and will be like a halcyon era for parenthood.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will make the global internet resemble China's
“I actually think AI makes the internet a lot more like the Chinese internet.”
Balaji Srinivasan: China will stop autonomous AI using cryptographic kill switches
“Way before it gets there, I'm pretty sure that kind of thing will be stopped from the Chinese because they will just have cryptographic keys that will just make all those things shut off, okay?”
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized US AI firms won't reach trillions due to backlash
“So I don't think that in that form they're going to get to trillions. In fact, I think the counterattack on them is going to be so dramatic that it might be that you just have decentralized AI.”
Blania: Artificial intelligence systems will eventually acquire personhood status
“At some point AIs will have personhood too.”
Horowitz: Democracy will fail without proof-of-human identity infrastructure
“Proof of human is a piece of a very important puzzle where we have to upgrade the entire infrastructure or we're not going to be a democracy anymore. I mean, that, that'd just be my guess.”
Andreessen: Mainstream media will permanently follow and react to viral posts
“If you're a television producer or if you're a news editor or whatever, like you can't possibly move your organization fast enough to stay ahead of these cycles. And so what you end up doing is you end up chasing them. And that's, and basically the role of mai…”