Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2035
Sivulka: AI agents will contribute over 50% of global GDP within a decade
“One of my big predictions is that over 50% of the global GDP will be contributed by AI agents sometime in the next decade.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: China has not shown it can push frontier AI
“China has not shown that they can actually continue to play ball, ah, pushing the frontier of AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: The arrival of AGI will trigger a massive financial market correction
“First, when AGI is here, there will be a massive correction in the financial markets. That is actually my Turing test is if AGI is here, will it actually be able to make significantly more money than a human investor? Better than human investing. And I think p…”
Assertion Contradicted
Sivulka claims Hebbia pioneered inference-time compute scaling
“And this is a technique scaling at inference that was first actually pioneered at Hebbia, and we quickly noticed another scaling law, where if we ran more models and basically more compute at inference time, you could get much better results for very complex t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: United States will maintain global lead in AI
“America, I believe, is so far ahead, and I think that it will continue to be so far ahead and these technologies, you know, every single year are so much exponentially better than the last year that we have the head start, and I think that we'll continue to ha…”
Opinion
Sivulka: ChatGPT provides no investment alpha due to lack of custom data
“If you look at ChatGPT and the limitations of like, you give it to a bunch of investors and you ask it to draft an IC memo for a company like Hebbia, every single VC would get the same IC memo out.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Hebbia platform offers an effectively infinite context window
“Hebbia's got like an infinite effective context window and then when you look at a new opportunity, you could filter to a variety of other opportunities that were similar and actually begin to piece out how it's different, how it's similar and all the pieces t…”
Insight
Sivulka: Despite amazing demos, nobody actually knows what to use AI for
“One of the big pieces and unlocks that had the experience was coming to the realization that nobody knows what to use AI for. Like, you know, people pretend to go and create all these amazing demos, but nobody knows what to do with it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Hebbia performs almost any junior analyst task better than humans
“And you can actually look at our product today and you could argue that it could do almost any task that a junior analyst could do better than a junior analyst.”
Insight
Sivulka: Consumption pricing disincentivizes organizational AI adoption
“You need to get to the usage first before you charge on consumption, because the minute you charge on consumption or you charge on, you know, number of agents and times of salary, You actually are disincentivizing the change that is required to build an AI nat…”
Insight
Sivulka: AI scaling laws are fundamental mathematical properties of the universe
“And I think they're both effectively mathematical properties of the universe. I don't think they're you know, just an experimental observed thing.”
Opinion
Sivulka: Meta-learning will be the most important technology of all time
“The idea and the promise of meta-learning, and what that means is teaching machines to learn how to learn was, to me, going to be the most important technology of all time.”
Insight
Sivulka: AGI will orchestrate sub-agents instead of using massive context windows
“You wouldn't want An AGI to jam a 100,000 documents into its context window and take an infinite amount of time to, or some very, very large amount of time to process that. You'd rather use and orchestrate a bunch of sub-agents.”
Insight
Sivulka: Enterprise AI deployment is a sociology problem, not technology
“It's actually no longer a technology problem. It's really a sociology and change management problem.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Hebbia enables firms to screen 137% more deal opportunities
“We can screen a 137% more opportunities. Like in a, yeah, in a given period of time, which is like, you know, and you, it's with the same depth.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Hebbia saves clients tens of thousands per deal in legal costs
“If every single credit agreement, you know, they reviewed multiple hours and it costs 2000 dollars per hour for a lawyer to review them. And now they can review them in house. They're saving on tens of thousands of dollars on a per deal basis, maybe hundreds o…”
Disclosure
Sivulka: Managing directors are using AI to audit junior analysts' work
“There are even some you know, MDs like the one off MD that will go in and actually check their analysts work with AI. So they'll create a matrix and like pull out red flags or inconsistencies over something their analysts sent.”
Disclosure
Sivulka: Hebbia is building the Bloomberg terminal for private market investing
“And what Hebbia is trying to build is the Bloomberg terminal for private companies. Not like a pitch book or a crunch base, which is really just for sourcing, but actually to go out and take all of the information private and public and pre-structure that. So …”
Insight
Sivulka: Pre-ChatGPT deal history won't help investors evaluate post-LLM startups
“Spending too much time thinking about the historical deals that were AI pre-ChatGPT or pre-generative AI or pre-LLMs are not actually going to help you with the deals post-LLMs and it'll, It'll be even better if you don't have that much information.”
Opinion
Sivulka: Outside San Francisco, no one knows what AI agents are
“I think San Francisco, like everyone's, you know, talking about like different pricing strategies for AI agents, and I'm like, you know, outside of San Francisco, no one knows what an agent is at this point in time, so.”
Opinion
Sivulka: B2B enterprise AI apps are becoming feature-bloated like Salesforce
“A lot of B to B enterprise AI apps will have a billion different apps, and they'll just be, you know, here's this feature, here's, here's this feature. And it's already starting to look a little bit like Salesforce.”
Opinion
Sivulka: Top financial graduates perform the stupidest tasks
“And I realized that the early, like, incredibly, the smartest people in the world, incredibly smart kids, were going and doing the stupidest tasks.”
Disclosure
Sivulka: Hebbia has proven out agentic deep research over private enterprise data
“And I think that this level of agentic deep research is going to be one of the most exciting things that I can't quite disclose now that, that Hebbia has proven out and is working on over private information.”
Opinion
Sivulka: Deep Research provides the first true experience of an AI agent
“I think deep research allows you to experience What an agent can do for the first time.”
