Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Isaacman: NASA astronauts will build President Trump's moon base
“When we return to the moon, America will not look down on the prime lunar real estate while our rivals occupy it. NASA astronauts will be on the surface, building President Trump's moon base, and we will realize the scientific, economic, and national security …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: China's moon schedule is potentially within a year of NASA's
“Regardless if we had a rival that is, again, within potentially a year of our schedule on this, it is still, the changes we announced last week is still in the correct direction.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before end of Trump's term
“NASA has stated we will achieve the national imperative to return, ah, to the moon and establish an enduring presence before the end of President Trump's term.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Isaacman: NASA will launch moon rockets every few months, not years
“We are gonna get back into the habit of launching moon rockets in months, not years.”
Prediction Held up
Isaacman: NASA targeting new SLS mission in 2027 and lunar landings in 2028
“We are standardizing the SLS rocket, increasing launch cadence from years to months. We're inserting a new mission in 20, 27 to buy down risk and increase confidence for lunar landing attempts in 20, 28.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: NASA loses $1.4B annually to staffing contractor markups
“About 1.4 billion a year is lost in science and discovery. Because someone, 30 years ago or so, said there's these artificial hiring ceilings on civil servants, so 75% of the workforce became contractors.”
Insight
Isaacman: NASA Should Assume Liability for Launching Space Nuclear Propulsion
“NASA can do the What probably others wouldn't want to take on the liability of launching a nuclear reactor with power and propulsion so we can get to Mars someday and actually bring our astronauts back home.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Isaacman: NASA to embed engineers at contractors and demand monthly CEO briefings
“We are going to embed responsible engineers in every one of the prime contractors, every one of the subcontractors that has components on the critical path. CEOs of these companies are going to brief me every 30 days on how they're going to meet our timelines”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Isaacman: NASA will maintain SLS rocket through at least Artemis V or VI
“We've got Artemis through at least, or SLS through at least Artemis five or six. We're gonna make the most of it, and then we will continue to evolve our, ah, our architecture until we are watching, ah, NASA astronauts going to and from the moon measured in mo…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Isaacman: US Will Deploy Nuclear Power in Space Before Term Ends
“I promised him America will get underway in space on nuclear power before the end of his term.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: Astronauts Will Land on Mars Within Our Lifetime
“And, look, I think, like, we're gonna see astronauts on Mars in our lifetime.”
Assertion Partly supported
Isaacman: NASA spent $200M last year on a canceled program
“We spent two hundred million dollars last year on a canceled program.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: NASA's $25B annual budget is fully sufficient
“Is twenty-five billion dollars a year plus the plus-up that came from one big beautiful bill enough to get the job done? Yeah, sure as hell is.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: Mars soil samples would reveal direct evidence of past microbial life
“I would say that if we went and brought the samples back from Mars which is a program that people have been asking about for a while, was canceled in the last administration because it was super expensive I think the odds are extremely good you'd have direct e…”
Assertion Supported
Isaacman: 75% of NASA's workforce consists of contractors
“75% of your workforce, not partners, not commercial partners in this, are contractors you know, through staffing agencies, so they're all using different software tools, collaboration tools, different HR systems, talking to different prime contracts, subcontra…”
Insight
Isaacman: NASA Duplicating Industry Efforts Harms Talent Recruitment and Retention
“So if NASA is doing the same thing that industry is doing, we're screwing up. And that's going to make it very hard for us to recruit talent. It's going to make it very hard for us to retain talent.”
Assertion Supported
Isaacman: SpaceX and Blue Origin scheduled uncrewed lunar lander tests for 2027
“Now, both SpaceX and Blue had to do uncrewed tests of their vehicle. It was already part of the plan. So they were planning to launch these you know, these spacecraft in in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Assertion Supported
Isaacman: US has committed $100B in taxpayer dollars to Moon return
“You've committed, again, a hundred billion of taxpayer dollars, you have an obligation to see it through.”
Insight
Isaacman: NASA must target un-bankable tech then hand off to industry
“It's NASA's job that we should be doing near impossible where no other agency, organization, company could ever close a business case on because your demand signal is one, and there's probably no logical revenue model to underwrite it. That's where NASA should…”
Prediction Held up
Isaacman: Artemis II mission will launch around the Moon in coming weeks
“In the weeks ahead, America will send the brave Artemis II astronauts potentially farther into space than any humans have ever traveled in generations flying around the moon on a ten-day mission to test the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft befor…”
Assertion Supported
Isaacman: NASA is launching 'NASA Force' talent exchange initiative
“With the immense support of OPM Director Scott Cooper, we are launching NASA Force. To rebuild NASA's core competencies.”
Insight
Isaacman: Multi-year gaps between rocket launches destroy operational competencies
“You get no muscle memory if you're launching that during every three and a half years. People are working to launch the mission, and then they're gonna move on and go somewhere else, and you have to rebuild all those competencies again.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Isaacman: NASA will launch nuclear-powered octocopter to Titan in 2028
“You've got a octocopter, nuclear-powered octocopter that we're launching to Titan in twenty-twenty-eight searching for life.”
Jared Isaacman